Be honest: It's two weeks before the 2016 election, and you see the IL result...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A wizard shows you the Illinois result in his crystal ball:

Hillary Clinton   3,090,729   55.24%
Donald J. Trump   2,146,015   38.36%
Gary Johnson   209,596   3.75%
Dr. Jill Stein   76,802   1.37%

Honestly, if I saw that Hillary Clinton was outperforming Barack Obama in Barack Obamas own midwestern home state 2 weeks before the election, I would not only have become completely confident of Hillary Clinton winning, but I would also have been confident that she would hold not only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but also Ohio and Iowa.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trump kept sh**tting on Chicago so it’s not too surprising she did better there than Obama did. Still likely Clinton if I just saw illinois’ final results alone.

[catographer]

Seeing the top line results versus the county results would make a big difference in my impression. The statewide total barely changed, but the coalitions on the county-level were radically different.

[Adam Griffin]

Fun fact: looking at the largest 10 states and drawing conclusions based on their performance from 2012, one would have expected (assuming a uniform shift in margin) that Clinton would win the popular vote by 3.2 points. Obama won them in 2012 by 7.88 points; Clinton won them by 7.2 points.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A wizard shows you the Illinois result in his crystal ball:

Hillary Clinton   3,090,729   55.24%
Donald J. Trump   2,146,015   38.36%
Gary Johnson   209,596   3.75%
Dr. Jill Stein   76,802   1.37%

Honestly, if I saw that Hillary Clinton was outperforming Barack Obama in Barack Obamas own midwestern home state 2 weeks before the election, I would not only have become completely confident of Hillary Clinton winning, but I would also have been confident that she would hold not only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but also Ohio and Iowa.

I would have been overjoyed, but with the caveat that I need county results.

2012:


2016:


That is terrifying, and based on those maps alone, I could have told you straight up that Iowa was gone, and that Clinton was in trouble in SW Wisconsin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I bring this up in the NV thread.  Here's your problem:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=298852.0

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Hillary doing better than Obama in his own home state would've led me to believe it was Likely/Safe Clinton.

[Peanut]

The county map would be what worried me a little probably.