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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Kobach +1  (Read 879 times)
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« on: September 14, 2018, 08:58:43 am »

Kobach 39
Kelly 38
Orman 9
Others 3
Undecided 12

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nn91k0tsmyfmyow/KansasResults.pdf
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Clinton Blumenthal Murphy Lamont voter for Trump
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 08:59:46 am »

Tossupiest of Tossups. LOL at Orman.
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Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2018, 09:08:27 am »

Undecideds are rather large, but Kobach is holding his own. The tossups dont look good for Ds. Kobach has the advantage, but Kelly can still win this.
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2018, 09:36:55 am »

Pure tossup right now. I can't even assign a tilt to this one tbh.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2018, 10:21:36 am »

Um, are we sure this is a new poll?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300288.0
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2018, 10:22:35 am »


Look at the bottom left corner of my link.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2018, 10:23:38 am »


Yeah, I saw it. But what are the odds of doing a new poll and finding again the EXACT same numbers?
« Last Edit: September 14, 2018, 01:02:35 pm by Landslide Lyndon »Logged

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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2018, 11:36:09 am »

KS polls are like MO polls they're unpredictable, I think Kelly can win
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2018, 11:55:31 am »

How in the world are the numbers exactly the same as the last poll?
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2018, 01:28:34 pm »

How in the world are the numbers exactly the same as the last poll?

There is always a small chance that happens. Early in the 2016 cycle, people speculated whether the electoral map will be the same as in 2012.
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2018, 01:48:42 pm »

How in the world are the numbers exactly the same as the last poll?

There is always a small chance that happens. Early in the 2016 cycle, people speculated whether the electoral map will be the same as in 2012.

That's a lot more likely to happen than a random sample in a close race showing the same results in two polls a month apart from each other.
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« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2018, 01:55:22 pm »

Kobach is +1 with and without Orman in the race.

Orman's favorability is a noticeably better with Clinton voters than Trump voters. It makes me think that if he were to rise in the polls it'd be at Kelly's expense, though at least for right now his effect is pretty much neutral.
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2018, 02:55:05 pm »

Thanks Greg. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2018, 03:02:11 pm »

The memo says it was conducted September 12-13.
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2018, 06:17:59 pm »

Well, at least partisans don't seem to be coming home to Kobach yet. I'd still bet on him though, sadly.
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2018, 06:19:22 pm »

If Kobach wins I can see him as a successor to Trump, or on a ticket with Tom Cotton.
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2018, 06:21:09 pm »

If Kobach wins I can see him as a successor to Trump, or on a ticket with Tom Cotton.

I said that from the very beginning. It's a definite reason why he has to lose. Add Tom Cotton to that and I am barely able to speak due to the constant stream of vomit engulfing my throat.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2018, 06:50:42 pm »

Kobach created an Akin moment, I think Kelly can pull off the upset😍
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2018, 07:02:40 pm »

A jungle primary (preferably top-four with RCV runoff) would eliminate the spoiler effect.
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The Saint
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2018, 09:33:24 am »

Kinda funny how the Republican internal had Kelly up by one and the two Democratic internals had Kobach up by one.
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2018, 11:23:29 am »

Toss-Up, obviously.
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