Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Crumpets]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

[Xing]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

The Russians have figured out who you are.

[Boobs]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

Neither has my sister, and she lives in Seattle.

[Alaska2392]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

Neither has my sister, and she lives in Seattle.

Overseas, out of state, service member ballots?

Ballots to the general public were mailed out on 10/17 which means they would arrive on 10/18 or 10/19

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1052995794477801472

[Coastal Elitist]

California update: 397,976 ballots

Democrats 168,644 42%
Republicans 134,347 34%
Other 94,985 24%

[Gustaf]

Is there anywhere that tracks partisan or demographic turnout compared to 2014/2016?

[bilaps]

Latest FL numbers

Republicans 346,447
Democrats 300,473   
Other 4,205
NPA 136,122
Total 787,247

[Gass3268]

Latest FL numbers

Republicans 346,447
Democrats 300,473   
Other 4,205
NPA 136,122
Total 787,247

Democrats gained about another .5%

[Adam Griffin]

Two observations:

#1: combined requested and returned ballots are already at 55% of 2014's turnout. Additionally, look at these stats compared to 2016:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1053111387084546050

#2:



Not crazy about those figures in #2. The thing is, if this election plays out like 2014, then beginning next Saturday, the winds should begin to shift back in the Democrats' favor. If this plays out like 2016, however, then it'll only get whiter from here. Thing is, we can't be for sure which is which (especially given point #1 - turnout is approaching presidential levels in early voting, which makes any reversion that much more difficult).

And instead of a raw vote-to-raw vote comparison, here's a day-to-day comparison:



https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1053281487628525568

[Adam Griffin]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

[Devout Centrist]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Election Day vote in Georgia this year will be much closer than 2014 and closer than 2016.

[Gass3268]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

[Adam Griffin]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

I believe this is the first year that MN offered real no-excuse early voting, which is why its numbers are so large (I believe prior to this year, you had to send a letter to the board of elections detailing a justifiable reason to vote early). I know they didn't have it in 2014; changes in the law are skewing the above 2014 metric at minimum.

[Gass3268]

And just a quick pull from McDonald's spreadsheet:

Code:

STATE	% OF 2014 ADVANCE
CO		0.80%
KS		0.80%
AK		1.20%
WV		2.30%
MD		6.40%
CA		8.80%
OH		9.00%
ME		11.00%
AZ		13.50%
NM		13.50%
ID		13.80%
SC		14.00%
MI		20.00%
IL		22.30%
NC		23.40%
FL		24.70%
IA		24.70%
MT		27.90%
WI		29.80%
NE		33.60%
TN		34.40%
ND		36.60%
GA		40.10%
WY		46.50%
VA		47.00%
MN		67.70%

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

I believe this is the first year that MN offered real no-excuse early voting, which is why its numbers are so large (I believe prior to this year, you had to send a letter to the board of elections detailing a justifiable reason to vote early). I know they didn't have it in 2014.

I think 2016 was the first year it was available.

[Adam Griffin]

I think I read somewhere that Minnesota is a head of 2016 as well.

I believe this is the first year that MN offered real no-excuse early voting, which is why its numbers are so large (I believe prior to this year, you had to send a letter to the board of elections detailing a justifiable reason to vote early). I know they didn't have it in 2014.

I think 2016 was the first year it was available.

Looks like you're right about 2016! And technically, it looks like they did have it in 2014, but I'm not sure if the no-excuse portion was still intact; it may have just been that nobody was accustomed to the new law then and therefore didn't use it.

[Tender Branson]

TN early voting continues to be huge on the second day.

Not the 2016 presidential levels, but not far below ...

2nd day, 2018: 97.990
2nd day, 2016: 127.803
2nd day, 2018 (primary): 15.535

[RI]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

Clearly a concerted campaign to disenfranchise Atlasians.

I've got another data point to add to this troubling trend: I haven't received my ballot either.

Neither has my sister, and she lives in Seattle.

Overseas, out of state, service member ballots?

Ballots to the general public were mailed out on 10/17 which means they would arrive on 10/18 or 10/19

Here in Whitman County they aren't even mailing out ballots until today.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is a nice site for tracking California early vote, which has maps showing where the ballot requests/returns are coming from by party down to the precinct level.

https://www.politicaldata.com/statewide-early-vote-tracker/

So for, although women have requested 50% of the ballots and men only 43%, men have returned 50% and women have only returned 46%. So at least in California so far, I guess it is the #YearOfTheMan.

Surprising, but I would expect that to change eventually.

[Seattle]

King County up to 3,525 returned ballots.
Stunning turnout!

[norcal23]

Wondering if anyone can offer insight as to why the early vote totals so highly favor Democrats (and particularly 18-34 year olds) in CA-21, when most of the other districts according to this site seem to have totals in line with what is expected.

Is it possible that Cox is wiping the floor with Valadao even though it was only expected to be slightly competitive?

Total ballots mailed: 151,772
Democrats: 67,796 (45%)
Republicans: 41,821 (28%)
Ind/Other: 42,155 (28%)

See Cruz Will Win's link to the site as I can't post links.

[Coastal Elitist]

Wondering if anyone can offer insight as to why the early vote totals so highly favor Democrats (and particularly 18-34 year olds) in CA-21, when most of the other districts according to this site seem to have totals in line with what is expected.

Is it possible that Cox is wiping the floor with Valadao even though it was only expected to be slightly competitive?

Total ballots mailed: 151,772
Democrats: 67,796 (45%)
Republicans: 41,821 (28%)
Ind/Other: 42,155 (28%)

See Cruz Will Win's link to the site as I can't post links.

That's total ballots mailed out. This district has a terrible return rate, so no. It was a similar number of mailed out ballots for the primary and well you saw the results of that.

[Adam Griffin]

As of 10/19:

Code:

STATE	% of 2014 Advance  	% of 2016 Total
AK		1.30%			0.50%
KS		1.30%			0.30%
CO		1.70%			1.30%
WV		2.60%			0.40%
MD		6.90%			0.90%
OH		9.00%			1.40%
CA		11.50%			3.70%
NM		16.20%			3.60%
AZ		18.90%			11.10%
ME		22.40%			4.00%
NC		23.40%			5.80%
IL		24.40%			3.40%
FL		24.80%			8.30%
SC		27.60%			2.10%
MT		27.90%			12.50%
ID		32.60%			6.10%
WI		33.40%			4.20%
IA		33.60%			10.10%
NE		33.60%			4.70%
MI		36.50%			6.20%
ND		36.60%			9.50%
TN		44.30%			11.20%
WY		46.50%			6.70%
VA		47.00%			2.40%
GA		50.60%			11.60%
MN		67.70%			5.40%
IN		84.40%			7.00%

[Xing]

NV starts today, and I’ll certainly be watching Ralston’s Twitter. As he says, early voting is the most accurate poll in NV.