Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Antonio the Sixth]

NV starts today, and I’ll certainly be watching Ralston’s Twitter. As he says, early voting is the most accurate poll in NV.

Yeah, looking forward to that if nothing else.

[Former Kentuckian]

There have been questions on here about early turnout by region in North Dakota, so I decided to break down the early vote returns by each region myself. To determine what county goes into what region, I used the North Dakota state government's tourism site rather than just looking at the map and guessing. The North Dakota tourism page breaks the state into six regions: Northeast, Southeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest, and Southwest. I collapsed the regions into three for convenience (West, Central, and East). Here's the tourism page: https://www.ndtourism.com/all-cities I've also included the population for each region by counting the population of each region's counties based on the 2017 info from census.gov: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

North Dakota's population as of 2017: 755,393
Note on voting in North Dakota: North Dakota does NOT have voter registration.
Total number of ballots mailed: 78,643
Total number of ballots returned: 35,319
Total number of early in-person voters: 2
Source on voting numbers: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/ABEV.aspx?eid=303
Percentage of 2014 advance: 39% (http://www.electproject.org/early_2018)

Eastern North Dakota
Counties: Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Pembina, Richland, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, Traill, Walsh
Population : 321,536
Total ballots mailed: 28,477
Total ballots returned: 13,588

Central North Dakota
Counties: Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Pierce, Ramsey, Rolette, Sheridan, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, Wells
Population : 276,719
Total ballots mailed: 32,900
Total ballots returned: 15,451
Total in-person: 2

Western North Dakota
Counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, McKenzie, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Oliver, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Williams
Population : 157,138
Total ballots mailed: 17,263
Total ballots returned: 6,269

Disclaimer: The number for the ballots sent by region when combined don't match up to what the ND SOS says have been mailed (it's off by 3 votes); likewise, the number for the ballots returned is off by 11 votes compared to what the ND SOS says. Though I was careful, I'm willing to admit this could be an error on my part. I'm not sure if I somehow messed up or the ND SOS site is off by a few votes (it's probably me). Regardless, I'm too lazy to go back through the numbers and check, and it doesn't affect giving an idea of overall turnout by region.

[MT Treasurer]

34/195 ballots returned in Petroleum County, MT, but 0/315 in Garfield County, MT.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

34/195 ballots returned in Petroleum County, MT, but 0/315 in Garfield County, MT.

Bad news for Tester. Rosendale is sure to carry Petroleum Co, but I have Garfield penciled in as solid Tester. Garfield is a pro-incumbent county, whereas Petroleum tends to favor challengers. If there is low turnout in Garfield, Tester could actually be vulnerable. But maybe they just haven't reported the results yet. I don't think they have a full time County elections administrator.

[Arkansas Yankee]

At the Election project the question has been raised as to whether this could be the first midterm since 1914 to have a 50% or more turnout:

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

Another observation I have is that the folks who are harassing Republican lawmakers are foolishly in the process of driving up the GOP turnout.  They are also in the process of making Senator McConnell a hero to Republicans.  I cannot understand why they are doing that.

Can someone explain this foolishness?

[GeorgiaModerate]

At the Election project the question has been raised as to whether this could be the first midterm since 1914 to have a 50% or more turnout:

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

Another observation I have is that the folks who are harassing Republican lawmakers are foolishly in the process of driving up the GOP turnout.  They are also in the process of making Senator McConnell a hero to Republicans.  I cannot understand why they are doing that.

Can someone explain this foolishness?

The electorate has never been a shining example of wisdom, and it's gotten worse in the last few years.  This kind of uncivil behavior is, well, deplorable.  People, including politicians, should be able to appear in public without that kind of harassment.  (However, I strongly doubt that it changes anyone's voting intention.)  

EDIT: That looks more even-handed than I intended.  It should also be noted that although incivility has been on the rise, nobody has fomented and encouraged it over the last couple years more than Donald Trump.

[Hindsight was 2020]

At the Election project the question has been raised as to whether this could be the first midterm since 1914 to have a 50% or more turnout:

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

Another observation I have is that the folks who are harassing Republican lawmakers are foolishly in the process of driving up the GOP turnout.  They are also in the process of making Senator McConnell a hero to Republicans.  I cannot understand why they are doing that.

Can someone explain this foolishness?

Yeah can’t a guy destroy our democratic norms, put an accused sexual assaulter on the SCOTUS, and politicize our courts all in a cynical bid for power have a nice dinner without being told to go f**k himself? The outrage

[Xing]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

[IceSpear]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Remember when tons of Democrats stayed home in 2014, a Republican wave swept across the country, Sandoval romped to a 50 point win, Republicans made big gains all across Nevada, and Adam Laxalt could still only manage a <1 point win with well under 50% of the vote? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

It also reminds me of that old tale when Dean Heller could only beat a corrupt lady under ethics investigation by 1 point with well under 50% of the vote while getting less votes than Mitt Romney did.

[Virginiá]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

[Xing]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

[Virginiá]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Oh that's right, I forgot about that site.

So far looks like only half of 2016's first day. >= 25k (assuming end of day ends around there) would be more in line with 2010.

[Xing]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Oh that's right, I forgot about that site.

So far looks like only half of 2016's first day. >= 25k (assuming end of day ends around there) would be more in line with 2010.

He's now saying it was at 27K by 5 PM

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053812676957134848

Clark was about 71% of the total early vote on the first day of 2016. We'll know soon what % it is of the early vote today.

[Gass3268]

Ralston is claiming that turnout in Clark county today was 22,000 by 3 PM, over twice what it was in 2014.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053789569621999616

Curious what the first day of early voting in 2016 was like.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Oh that's right, I forgot about that site.

So far looks like only half of 2016's first day. >= 25k (assuming end of day ends around there) would be more in line with 2010.

He's now saying it was at 27K by 5 PM

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053812676957134848

Clark was about 71% of the total early vote on the first day of 2016. We'll know soon what % it is of the early vote today.

They still have another two hours in some Vegas sites too.

[ON Progressive]

Some of the smaller counties in Nevada have already reported their numbers:

Carson City had 982 voters today, 47-35 Republican. Much higher than 2014's 594 voters on day 1, but those voters were 53-31 Republican in 2014.

Douglas had 639 voters today, 60-25 Republican. This is down from 2014, when Douglas had 903 voters on day 1. The electorate is also significantly less red, as it was 65-20 Republican in 2014.

Eureka had 25 voters today, 64-16 Republican. Again, this is down from 2014 (38 votes on day 1). It's also a lot less red, as it was a 72-13 GOP electorate in 2014.

Humboldt had 218 voters today, 56-29 Republican. This is up from 2014's 163 votes on day 1, but they were 60-23 Republican in 2014 overall.

Lincoln had 39 voters today, 56-28 Republican. This is exactly a single vote up from 2014 on day 1, but 2014's EV electorate here was 61-26 Republican.

Storey had 195 voters today, 52-27 Republican. This is up from 2014's 125 voters on day 1, and actually a bit more Republican (50-27 Republican in 2014).

White Pine had 81 voters today, 59-21 Republican. Slightly up from 2014's 73 voters on day 1, and a lot more Republican (was 51-35 Republican in 2014).

Dems have to be liking the less Republican electorates in most of these rural areas, and they should especially be happy with the decline of turnout in a couple of these areas.

[Xing]

Some of the smaller counties in Nevada have already reported their numbers:

Carson City had 982 voters today, 47-35 Republican. Much higher than 2014's 594 voters on day 1, but those voters were 53-31 Republican in 2014.

Douglas had 639 voters today, 60-25 Republican. This is down from 2014, when Douglas had 903 voters on day 1. The electorate is also significantly less red, as it was 65-20 Republican in 2014.

Eureka had 25 voters today, 64-16 Republican. Again, this is down from 2014 (38 votes on day 1). It's also a lot less red, as it was a 72-13 GOP electorate in 2014.

Humboldt had 218 voters today, 56-29 Republican. This is up from 2014's 163 votes on day 1, but they were 60-23 Republican in 2014 overall.

Lincoln had 39 voters today, 56-28 Republican. This is exactly a single vote up from 2014 on day 1, but 2014's EV electorate here was 61-26 Republican.

Storey had 195 voters today, 52-27 Republican. This is up from 2014's 125 voters on day 1, and actually a bit more Republican (50-27 Republican in 2014).

White Pine had 81 voters today, 59-21 Republican. Slightly up from 2014's 73 voters on day 1, and a lot more Republican (was 51-35 Republican in 2014).

Dems have to be liking the less Republican electorates in most of these rural areas, and they should especially be happy with the decline of turnout in a couple of these areas.

Nice work! Storey county also stood out to me as being more Republican. I haven't calculated what the 2016 margins were in these counties, but that could be a good point of comparison as well.

[Virginiá]

Pffft, and now I just realized he was only talking about Clark and I was looking at statewide totals. With that in mind, this is really impressive.

[Gass3268]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

[ON Progressive]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

That's very good news. Can't see Heller winning without him winning Washoe comfortably. Heller only won by a point in 2012 while winning Washoe by double digits, after all.

[Xing]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Democrats were ahead by a few points in Washoe in 2016 by the end of the first week, but if they're counting absentees, that probably means that Democrats were probably a few points ahead in the in person vote today. It'll be interesting to see how many votes they actually got in Washoe and Clark.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Democrats were ahead by a few points in Washoe in 2016 by the end of the first week, but if they're counting absentees, that probably means that Democrats were probably a few points ahead in the in person vote today. It'll be interesting to see how many votes they actually got in Washoe and Clark.

The in-person vote was 49-34 Democratic today.

https://washoecounty.us/voters/2018electioninformation/18_gen_ab_ev_reports.php

[Ebsy]

Not looking like Dean Heller is going to cruise to reelection by 7 points huh.

[Xing]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Democrats were ahead by a few points in Washoe in 2016 by the end of the first week, but if they're counting absentees, that probably means that Democrats were probably a few points ahead in the in person vote today. It'll be interesting to see how many votes they actually got in Washoe and Clark.

The in-person vote was 49-34 Democratic today.

https://washoecounty.us/voters/2018electioninformation/18_gen_ab_ev_reports.php

That's pretty good, and turnout was almost 75% what it was on the first day in 2016, putting it above most of the rural counties.

[Ebsy]

Iowa Update as of 10/19:

Dem: 76,174   
GOP: 54,685

Democrats keep expanding their raw ballot lead, and hold big leads in IA-01, IA-02 and IA-03.

[Devout Centrist]

In 2016's first week of early voting, Democrats cast 42.42% of Washoe county's combined early vote.

On the first day this year, that percentage is 44.21%. Not good early indications for Dean Heller,