Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It has started, let’s send Heller to hell (figurative).

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don’t want to read too much in but Heller can’t afford to do badly in Washoe

[Ebsy]

I don’t want to read too much in but Heller can’t afford to do badly in Washoe

But dontcha know Dean Heller is going to win Washoe by 20 points?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don’t want to read too much in but Heller can’t afford to do badly in Washoe

But dontcha know Dean Heller is going to win Washoe by 20 points?

Knock it off, the bastard will be lucky to even win it by 2-3.

[Xing]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053852986550607872

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Wacky Jacky just scalped UTDH

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053852986550607872

[ON Progressive]

Another tiny rural county's early vote came in, Churchill.

Churchill had 595 voters today, 63-21 Republican. Up from 321 votes on first day of 2014, and roughly the same margin as 2014 (64-21 Republican).

Of course though, we are waiting for Clark County.

[Xing]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

[ON Progressive]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't like these numbers if I were Dean Heller.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't like these numbers if I were Dean Heller.

(So far) it looks like the polls could get the NV senate race wrong for the third time in a row...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

What was the advantage in 2016?

[Xing]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

What was the advantage in 2016?

I don't know what it was on the first day, simply that turnout was 39.3K, meaning turnout today was 76.6% what it was in 2016. I do know that the margin for in person voting in Clark county was about about 48.2%-31.6%, so we're pretty close to that right now, but we'll have to see what happens throughout the week.

[Tender Branson]

The numbers are absolutely brutal for Republicans so far.

But it's only the early vote and election-day-voters could make it close again in some states.

[ON Progressive]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

What was the advantage in 2016?

It is D+14.8 so far in Clark early vote this year, it was D+14.4 overall in 2016. The problem for Republicans is that they're actually doing WORSE in Washoe than that. They're down 49.3% to 34.2% in the in person early vote in Washoe, which is D+15.1.

If Clark and Washoe are both giving massive early vote leads to Democrats, the Nevada GOP is absolutely toast.

[junior chįmp]

The numbers are absolutely brutal for Republicans so far.

But it's only the early vote and election-day-voters could make it close again in some states.

Lol....GOP is going to get destroyed this year. It will never get better for them. Its over

[Ebsy]

I believe Democrats tend to gain ground as the early vote period progresses, though someone more familiar with the data could correct me if I am wrong.

[ON Progressive]

A better NV comparison would be to 2010 than 2014 where Dems actually had a functioning GOTV operation.

I'm just going to do Clark/Washoe since it is 2:30 AM where I am and those two are north of 80% of the state population anyway

Overall 2010 EV in Clark: 46.2% Democratic, 37.4% Republican, 16.4% Other (D+8.8)
Overall 2010 EV in Washoe: 44.7% Republican, 40.3% Democratic, 15% Other (R+4.4)

Looks like Clark is doing significantly better so far compared to 2010, nevermind Washoe. I'm still floored by how good our Washoe numbers were today.

[YE]

Democrats overperformerd in Washoe too:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053834345922801664

Washoe is really elastic so I'm not surprised to see it snap back to the Dems after CCM somehow lost it in 2016 despite her historic strength in the area.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Atlas will never learn its lessons.

[OneJ]

Have the results of Carson City come out?

[bilaps]

Carson City day one are with absentees total 1916 voted, 936 republicans, 636 democrats. 48.8% vs 33,19%. This is lower percentage for republicans in comparing only this day with a week 1 of 2014 but slightly higher percentage comparing it with week 1 in 2016. Also turnout on day 1 is higher than in 2014 almost twice.

[RI]

It's perfectly plausible and perhaps expected that the Dem early vote in NV might be frontloaded this year.

[Xing]

It's perfectly plausible and perhaps expected that the Dem early vote in NV might be frontloaded this year.

I'm not sure that follows, since Republicans got a decent turnout in Clark. It was just overwhelmed by even stronger turnout by the Democrats. And even if the election day vote is more Republican-friendly, if Democrats have a large enough advantage going into election day, it's not going to matter. Take what happened in 2016, where the election day vote was far stronger in every state, including NV, than just about anyone expected. However, since the Democrats had such a large advantage in early voting, that wasn't enough to flip NV.

[Tender Branson]

400.000 people have voted early in TN on the first 4 days so far, compared with 473.000 in the first 4 days of the 2016 Presidential general election.

The days are comparable, because both this year and in 2016, the first 4 days were between Wed. and Sat.

[Xing]

The Clark numbers are now up. Elko also came in, and while 435 may sound laughable, that’s not too far off from the 2016 number. Only problem for Republicans is that the margin is less Republican than it was for the first week of 2016.