Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:44:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 72
Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 127491 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 08, 2018, 08:56:07 PM »

Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2018, 09:03:03 PM »

Do we know anything about "Other Race"? That increase is pretty remarkable by %.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2018, 09:05:16 PM »

Do we know anything about "Other Race"? That increase is pretty remarkable by %.

Primarily Asian, I expect.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2018, 09:16:10 PM »

Do we know anything about "Other Race"? That increase is pretty remarkable by %.

Primarily Asian, I expect.

You have to fill out what your race is to register to vote in Georgia, and "Other" is specifically an option. Asian/Pacific Islander is another option. You can see the form here:

http://sos.ga.gov/admin/files/GA_VR_APP_2018.pdf

"Other" has increased in frequency as an option that people check when registering to vote in Georgia. In part this can include things like people who are multi-racial, but it also partly reflects people not wanting to list their race, or thinking that the form shouldn't be asking for their race, or thinking that they are "post-racial" or that race doesn't apply to them, etc. So actually this does include a decent # of people who are actually white, as well as various other things. But regardless, "Other" probably does skew dem simply because it skews towards more recent registrants, and hence younger people and people who have moved more recently.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 09, 2018, 11:40:42 AM »

I believe the large chunk of "other" voters is due to voters no longer being required to indicate their race before their registration is accepted, so a larger chunk of young voters and new registrants are in the "other" category.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 09, 2018, 12:46:04 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 09, 2018, 12:50:37 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.

Iowa Rs always request and return ballots much later than Democrats and close the gap as election day approaches.

But the gap seems bigger this year, which is a sign of big D enthusiasm over the Rs.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 09, 2018, 03:07:10 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.


Yes, these are very significant numbers.

CD breakdown:

Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 09, 2018, 03:13:12 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.


I’m not getting burned on IA again after 2014’s numbers looked initially promising
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 09, 2018, 03:40:32 PM »

The "other" category is disproportionately first-time voters in GA who are Latino and Asian, but of the remaining "others" who don't fall into those groups, the white/black ratio tends to reflect the electorate as a whole (i.e. 2:1 white statewide). This is because, as has been said, race on the form is no longer a requirement. I believe it may also have something to do with more federal registration forms being processed that don't record or forward this information.

I have noticed recently, however, that of those who remain on the rolls for a cycle or two, the percentages identified as "other" seem to decline. This seemingly indicates that the state is collecting information about these individuals from other sources and applying it to their records (not entirely sure about this). The new AVR system via the DMV (that updates or submits voter registrations unless you opt out) may be the primary culprit.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 09, 2018, 06:05:40 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.


I do remember Hillary was up around 10 points or so in the early vote in Iowa on election day. It was a big early margin, but not even remotely close to that.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 09, 2018, 09:44:42 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756

IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.


I find this interesting (stats have been updated for today):

IA-01: 60.9% Democratic
IA-02: 66.5% Democratic
IA-03: 65.8% Democratic
IA-04: 59.2% Democratic
IA-Total: 63.3% Democratic

The fact that there's such relative uniformity between the districts (especially compared to IA-04) is impressive. Of course, IA-04 only has 60-75% the # of requested ballots compared to the other 3 districts, so it's not necessarily indicative of anything other than rampant Democratic enthusiasm. IA-03 having almost the same # of ballots requested and being more D than IA-01 is pretty amazing, though.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: October 09, 2018, 09:54:35 PM »

And for what it's worth:

Logged
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: October 09, 2018, 10:10:19 PM »

But at the same time Blum has been triaged, Young is in trouble, and the gov race is close. Is it really shocking to see Iowa Dems fired up?
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: October 09, 2018, 10:16:33 PM »

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.


Yes, these are very significant numbers.

CD breakdown:



Iowa's Choice 2018!

Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: October 10, 2018, 09:31:01 AM »

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: October 10, 2018, 09:39:26 AM »

I remember the early vote in NOVA being nuts last year, but it looks like they are shattering last year's marks:

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: October 10, 2018, 11:44:39 AM »

Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: October 10, 2018, 11:51:21 AM »

Thank you Michele Reagan! Glad you lost.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: October 10, 2018, 02:33:19 PM »

Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: October 10, 2018, 05:43:12 PM »

Iowa 10/10 update:

Democrats returned 2873 ballots to the Republicans' 2100.
Logged
bilaps
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,789
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: October 11, 2018, 09:27:50 AM »

Morning update from FL

Republicans 54,312
Democrats 39,795
Other 758
No party affiliation 20,460
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: October 11, 2018, 09:49:42 PM »

I'm not going to spam the thread, but here are a few updates from the past day or two for Georgia:

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 4,836 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 45,265 votes. The white share of the vote increased from yesterday, as did every other non-black group. Over 65s have been in relative free-fall the past 2 days, losing almost an entire point of their share of the electorate.

VBM turnout is up 115% compared to this time in 2014.

6,812 new ballots were requested since yesterday, bringing the total of requested ballots to 174,012.

Code:
White 20143 44.5% (+0.3)
Black 18789 41.5% (-0.5)
Latino 1079          2.4% (+0.1)
Asian 1381          3.1%  (+0.2)
Other 3873          8.6%  (+0.1)

Female 26498 58.5% (+0.1)
Male 18023 39.8% (-0.2)
Unknown 744         1.6%   (0.0)

18-29 2928 6.5%   (+0.1)
30-39 2424 5.4%   (+0.2)
40-49 3407 7.5%   (0.0)
50-64       10294 22.7%  (+0.1)
65+         25536        56.4%  (-0.5)
Unknown   676        1.5%    (0.0)

Looking at the 5 big metro counties, the white share of the electorate in VBM seems to be higher there than it is statewide; inversely, the non-white share of VBMs is lower there:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) VBM Returns
44.4% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" VBM Returns
44.1% White

And here are the 2017 Census estimates:

"The Big 5" (Fulton/Dekalb/Clayton/Gwinnett/Cobb) 2017 Pop
37.2% White

GA Outside "The Big 5" 2017 Pop
61.5% White

Think about that for a second.


I'm not sure what percentage of requested mail ballots usually get returned (and I'm not sure where I might find those stats for previous years), but, there were 107k returned mail ballots in 2014. In 2018 and as of right now, 159k ballots have been requested.
I just got home and saw that the Abrams campaign sent me a reminder to return my ballot. Already turned in but wow at the earnestness of getting each and every vote. She rocks!



I got one today too (and I've also returned my ballot already - later than I planned, but alas):

 
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: October 11, 2018, 10:30:24 PM »

10/11 Update for Iowa:

Democrats returned 2262 ballots to the Republicans 1615, bringing totals up to 9556 D ballots and 6118 R ballots.
Logged
bilaps
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,789
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: October 12, 2018, 11:11:49 AM »

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 72  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 11 queries.