Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Kentuckian]

In Illinois:

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Source: https://www.politico.com/amp/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2018/10/11/big-surge-in-mail-in-ballot-requests-bost-v-kelly-race-tightens-lightfoot-swipes-at-preckwinkle-324854

[Ebsy]

RIP Rauner.

[Brittain33]

Gwinnett County is rejecting a much higher percentage of mail-in ballots from Asian and African-American voters than from white voters. Of course.

https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/10/12/exclusive-high-rate-of-absentee-ballot-rejection-reeks-of-voter-suppression/

[ON Progressive]

Gwinnett County is rejecting a much higher percentage of mail-in ballots from Asian and African-American voters than from white voters. Of course.

https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/10/12/exclusive-high-rate-of-absentee-ballot-rejection-reeks-of-voter-suppression/

I am absolutely shocked! /s

[Ebsy]

Iowa 10/12 update:

Democrats returned 2953 ballots today to the Republicans' 1987.

[Xing]

Iowa 10/12 update:

Democrats returned 2953 ballots today to the Republicans' 1987.

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

Keep in mind that EV in IA skews Democratic and looked deceptively good for Democrats in 2016 as well, though. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions from this.

[Xing]

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

Keep in mind that EV in IA skews Democratic and looked deceptively good for Democrats in 2016 as well, though. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions from this.

The thing is that the EV looked comparatively bad in 2016, since the numbers were much stronger for Democrats in 2012. That’s why I’d be curious to see if the EV is better for Democrats than it was in 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

Keep in mind that EV in IA skews Democratic and looked deceptively good for Democrats in 2016 as well, though. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions from this.

I'm not sure about 2016, but:

And for what it's worth:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1049707604161773568

[KingSweden]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

What’s the typical breakdown in FL on the early vote

[Gass3268]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

What’s the typical breakdown in FL on the early vote

Not sure on the specific numbers, but mail vote is generally good for Republicans while in-person is good for Democrats.

[Minnesota Mike]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

Hardly anything in yet from Dade, Broward or Palm Beach counties.  When they catch up processing ballots things should get closer.

 

[Minnesota Mike]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

What’s the typical breakdown in FL on the early vote

Not sure on the specific numbers, but mail vote is generally good for Republicans while in-person is good for Democrats.

In a change from past elections Democrats actually requested slightly more VBM ballots than Republicans. 

[bilaps]

which was the case in the primaries too i think, but have returned less in the primaries

new numbers are

149,205   118,894   1,866   57,400   327,365

rep dems other npa total

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1051844693607243781

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 76,929 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 129,517 votes: 5.08% of total 2014 turnout. More than three times the number of votes were cast on the first day of in-person early voting this year than were cast on the same day in 2014.

The white share of the electorate obviously surged today, with the electorate that voted today pretty closely resembling that of 2014 and 2016's electorates overall (60% white, 30% black). The female share of the electorate fell precipitously, as did the 65+ share (mostly due to 50-64 year-olds voting). In short, the electorate got considerably whiter, more male and younger (at least when comparing extremes).

1,377 new mail ballots applications were received today, bringing the total of requested mail ballots to 187,101.

Early vote totals are 181% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 127% yesterday).

Code:

White	69548	53.7% (+9.3)
Black	44491	34.4% (-6.9)
Latino	2134          1.6% (-0.9)
Asian	2347	         1.8%  (-1.3)
Other	10997        8.4%  (-0.2)

Female	69829	53.9% (-4.6)
Male		57177 	44.1% (+4.3)
Unknown	2511	        1.9%   (+0.2)

18-29	 6936	5.4%   (-1.3)
30-39	 7243	5.6%   (+0.1)
40-49	11727	9.1%   (+1.5)
50-64       36077	27.9%  (+4.8)
65+          65158       50.3%  (-5.2)
Unknown	  2376        1.8%   (+0.3)

[Brittain33]

Follow this guy on Twitter. He's putting up lots of great graphs on NC early voting.

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1051844693607243781

[Tender Branson]

Massive problems reported in GA on the first day of early voting ...

It seems Kemp and his people at the SoS are doing everything possible to install him as Governor.

[bilaps]

New Fl numbers

Republicans 202,731
Democrats 162,881
Other 2,465
NPA 77,896
Total 445,973

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

[Brittain33]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

Polling station on a university campus? How did the Republican state government not shut that down already?

[bilaps]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

These seems like those random reports during election day on a turnout in some random polling place.

[Coastal Elitist]

California voting started October 8th. I wonder when they will start posting ballot returns cause I haven't seen anything yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tippecanoe will be solidly in Donnelly's column, so that's good.

[Person Man]

oh please god no

After 2016 I don't want to hear a f**king word about early voting ever again (except if it's about Nevada and from Jon Ralston, I guess).