Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[KingSweden]

Has this been posted?

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

In absentee numbers (sent):

Democrats: 83,734
Republicans: 20,564
No Party: 25,979
Libertarian: 756


IIRC, Democrats tend to do well in Iowa with absentee voting but I don't recall it being that big of a gap.

I’m not getting burned on IA again after 2014’s numbers looked initially promising

[KingSweden]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

What’s the typical breakdown in FL on the early vote

[KingSweden]

Over 10,000 people voted in Davidson County, TN (Nashville) on the first day of early voting.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/17/nashville-early-voting-turnout-midterms-2018/1675688002/

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Not bad.

[KingSweden]

Ballots were mailed out yesterday in WA.
As of 10/17, 3,411 ballots had been returned in King County.

I still haven't gotten mine #EastCoastProblems

Haven’t gotten mine either and I live in King

[KingSweden]

Saying “GOP ahead” doesn’t tell us much when looking at EV - one has to compare to previous years. Like FL, where they’re always ahead in mail ins. Question is, by what margin? And analyze from there.

[KingSweden]

Latest from Texas:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hdl_perspective/status/1054850626411159552?ref_src=tw...

[KingSweden]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

Well below the average. I’ll be curious to see if that holds as (presumably) more of the EV shifts to in person rather than mail

[KingSweden]

A few rurals in NV just came in, looks like a net gain of about 750 votes for the Republicans. Lower turnout in some (Douglas went from 1,424 to 1,002), roughly the same in others (Nye: 942 -> 972.) Turnout looks to be high again in Clark today, so Democrats might be able to pad to their margin if they get a strong showing there and in Washoe.

They need Douglas to do well since it’s larger than many of the other rurals

[KingSweden]

Okay Dean is going to win. Rural areas are on fire and Dems are not counter punching

What the hell are you talking about? Clark is going to have north of 20k turnout for the fourth straight day.

An Dems are not winning there as big as they should. This has been fours days now of the same trend

I don’t think we have today’s Clark results yet?

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

I'd love to be the fly on the wall at CMR's campaign HQ

I still think CMR wins but there are legislative races in Spokane that are very gettable

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

LD 4 (Spokane Valley and east) has the highest return rate, although LD 3 (Spokane proper) is not far behind. The rural areas to the north and south of the county are lagging behind.

Probably not a surprise - the two most polarized areas.

[KingSweden]

I highly, highly doubt CMR loses.

Same.

[KingSweden]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

Ralston said in his morning blog post that the Clark County Dem Firewall keeps building. Up to 10,000 now. Said that Democrats would like for it to get to 40,000. This weekend will be key. Also he said that the Washoe numbers should worry Republicans, but they are doing very well in the rurals.

Got a link?

[KingSweden]

I was checking numbers from Lyon county NV which dropped 1600 early votes yesterday which was 600 more than the day before.

4446 people voted there, while in 2016 number was 7923 at the end of week 1. So that's 56.1 of week 1 2016 turnout with 3 days to go. So guessing, it will be higher than 70%.

Percentage wise numbers aren't so bad for Democrats. In 2016 republican edge in absentees and early vote at the end of week 1 was 55,1 to 25.7 and now it' 51.1 to 21,6

Q is how Indy’s skew if the R/D differential is essentially the same

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

King:             123,689   9.59%
Pierce:             43,015   8.75%
Clark:              28,081   9.96%

Where are you getting the results? sos.wa.gov is, uh, not user friendly (or maybe I’m a moron)

[KingSweden]

Turnout in Clark is 17k at 3pm, so a little less than previous days, will probably be around 20k at the end of the day.

Could end up a bit higher, since it was roughly the same yesterday at 3 PM. I'd guess around 22-23K

How late are polls open? 7 or so?

[KingSweden]

Here is an interesting breakdown of Georgia's early vote thus far: http://georgiavotes.com/



Considering the number share of new voters among the younger age cohorts as well as Asians, Latinos and Others, it does not seem like vote cannibalization from the Democrats is likely.

I like how clean and straightforward this data is presented

[KingSweden]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

[KingSweden]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

😹😹😹 I think I need to take a break from reading Atlas until election night.

DKE is starting to get similar though it’s a *tad* better

[KingSweden]

Anyone want some North Carolina and Wisconsin numbers or should we wait until everyone cools off a bit?

INJECT THEM IN MY VEINS

[KingSweden]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

What's going on in Waukesha County?

It always has pretty solid turnout and is basically the distilled essence of Scott Walker

[KingSweden]

What's going on in Waukesha County?

My guess is Republicans who are fired up to vote for Walker that weren't fired up to vote for Trump. But that's nothing we didn't already know. Walker would be DOA if he was showing any weakness in WOW.

WashCo’s numbers aren’t impressive in this chart but idk how that usually occurs to the other W and the O

[KingSweden]

Yeah if I am a Democrat I like the Wisconsin numbers. Walker got 35k votes out of Washington County in 2014. Any votes he loses there are going to be difficult to make up elsewhere, especially when it looks like he is going to do much worse in the North and West.

Eh. It’s early yet. Just thought it was interesting it was running behind Waukesha that much

[KingSweden]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

It is 3 PM in Nevada (Anybody know why they use PT when MT seems more reasonable geographically?), so we might get one soon.

Presumably because both Vegas and Reno are very near to California (granted I’ve alwayd found that odd too)