Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[bilaps]

i was wondering when mcdonald will post first piece of "good" D news

[bilaps]

Morning update from FL

Republicans 54,312
Democrats 39,795
Other 758
No party affiliation 20,460

[bilaps]

200,000 people in FL already voted by mail

Republicans 92,224
Democrats 71,506   
Other 1,212
No party affiliation 35,405

[bilaps]

which was the case in the primaries too i think, but have returned less in the primaries

new numbers are

149,205   118,894   1,866   57,400   327,365

rep dems other npa total

[bilaps]

New Fl numbers

Republicans 202,731
Democrats 162,881
Other 2,465
NPA 77,896
Total 445,973

[bilaps]

https://www.jconline.com/story/opinion/columnists/dave-bangert/2018/10/15/bangert-tippecanoe-co-early-voting-up-700-so-far-over-14-midterm/1644872002/

Early voting in Tippecanoe County, Indiana at ~90% of 2016 pace, 700% of 2014 pace.

These seems like those random reports during election day on a turnout in some random polling place.

[bilaps]

Latest FL numbers

Republicans 346,447
Democrats 300,473   
Other 4,205
NPA 136,122
Total 787,247

[bilaps]

Carson City day one are with absentees total 1916 voted, 936 republicans, 636 democrats. 48.8% vs 33,19%. This is lower percentage for republicans in comparing only this day with a week 1 of 2014 but slightly higher percentage comparing it with week 1 in 2016. Also turnout on day 1 is higher than in 2014 almost twice.

[bilaps]

Clark numbers aren't really that bad for republicans if you consider 2016 as a base year and not 2014. Even Ralston said that there are problems with taking 2014 numbers cause there was no competitive race. When we take Clark numbers (both early vote and absentee numbers) there is 4k difference and around 10% D lead. After week 1 in 2016 lead was 40k votes and 15%.

But Washoe numbers are bad for republicans. They would need much better showing there.

[bilaps]

Clark numbers aren't really that bad for republicans if you consider 2016 as a base year and not 2014. Even Ralston said that there are problems with taking 2014 numbers cause there was no competitive race. When we take Clark numbers (both early vote and absentee numbers) there is 4k difference and around 10% D lead. After week 1 in 2016 lead was 40k votes and 15%.

But Washoe numbers are bad for republicans. They would need much better showing there.

The thing is that, since turnout is lower than 2016, Democrats wouldn't need as large of a lead, in terms of raw votes, to be effectively ahead. Also, as I mentioned, adding up the absentee vote and the in person vote right now isn't really going to give accurate numbers, since we only have one day of in person voting, but we have absentees from a few weeks.

We'll have a better idea how the numbers compare to 2016 by the end of the week.

Yeah, I agree.

[bilaps]

Latest Fl update have Republicans at 406,118, Democrats at 354,056

With others and NPA it's 923,652 people that already voted by mail.

So, so far it's 52k advantage republicans. At the end of 2014 process margin was 118k and in 2016 it was 59k.

[bilaps]

Latest Fl update have Republicans at 406,118, Democrats at 354,056

With others and NPA it's 923,652 people that already voted by mail.

So, so far it's 52k advantage republicans. At the end of 2014 process margin was 118k and in 2016 it was 59k.

NPA is going to be what brings the race home for Nelson and Gillum.  Indys are crazy Dem this year.

Well, let's wait and see. It's not gonna be by-mail democrats for sure. They will again leave tons of votes not casted. 

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054160972158357504

Scary numbers for the GOP.

Ralston going hard against his own reporting that 2014 isn't good year to compare.

[bilaps]

But even he said it it is a problem that neither 2010 nor 2014 are good for comparison.

As I said yesterday, numbers are really good for republicans in Clarke. They are good for Dems as well but from R standpoint they are overperforming their registration by 8 points and Ds lead is only 8pts with absentees counted. Problem for Rs in Washoe. And I think it is overall problem for Republicans in the entire country in this swing counties, they could break for Dems this year.

[bilaps]

Who's up for first FL early vote update?

Charlotte county reports 73-53-20 vote breakdown R-D-O while Palm Beach county registers 1 (one) vote for Democrats

[bilaps]

And here is the part where he says that neither 2014 nor 2010 are great comparisons

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I mean nobody really predicted that Republicans are going to sweep the state like in 2014

[bilaps]

A reason why people are cautioned about early vote and pictures and videos like this from TX is that we don't know nothing about election day vote and what percentage early vote will be of the total vote. Yes, dems are excited but maybe a lot of these people would vote later during early vote period or they would vote on election day. That's why FL in 2016 is great caution story for everyone. I'm willing to beleive in NV numbers can say something because majority of the votes are early votes and because they have good track record in predicting cause it's a small state. I don't buy anything into these pictures and random reports about turnout in TX except that yes, race is competitive which we already know. 5pts race IS competitive.

[bilaps]

One of the bigger rural counties updated in NV for day 1, Nye county. Turnout was way higher than in 2014, 300 more people voted. Party breakdown comparing with week 1 is somewhere along 2014 lines, Republicans outperforming by 3%

[bilaps]

Okaloosa county posted first early vote numbers, Republicans should be happy, it's 1344 to 292 margin for them vs Democrats and their percentage of total early vote in this county is now 74,2% which is up in comparison with percentage of total early vote from this county in 2014 by 3% and 2016 by 10%

[bilaps]

I complement all this research (no sarcasm) but in my opinion you can't make any calculations based on this reports, no matter what turnout it is today or even until the election day. Especially in a state big as Texas. Conclusions just cannot be made from these "informations".

[bilaps]

So basicaly a tie on the third day in NV while Democrats still doing better than expected in Washoe, Republicans are still outperforming in Clark.

Also, we have no idea how independents will break. We've gone a long way from day 1 and NV is going to have a blue wave to "i think indies are voting d this year the same polls we don't beleive are showing that"

[bilaps]

113750 people voted early in FL on day 1 and Dems have a 4,5k advantage in early vote over republicans.

I'll deep dive into numbers soon, but also worth noting is that Republican edge in VBM is now 58k, was 54k.

[bilaps]

Very good numbers for Republicans from top Florida counties

In Broward Dems have a 57,7-26,1 lead after day 1. In 2014 total it was 62,4-19,66. In 2016 it was 56,0-20,3.

In Miami Dade Dems have a 49,6-31,9 lead. In 2014 it was 53,3-27,28. In 2016 45,9-26,3. Again these are total numbers.

In Palm Beach Dems have 46,9-34,6 edge. In 2014 it was 49,8-28,4 and in 2016 46,5-27,8

And in Pinellas it is 40,9-40,0 for Dems after day 1. In 2014 total was 41,1-35,5 and in 2016 39,3-34,5..

So Dems are closer to it's 2016 numbers while Republicans are performing better in these counties both from 2014 and 2016.

Yes, I am comparing day 1 with overall percentages but still I would think Dems would want better numbers.

[bilaps]

I must confess I’m getting nervous that turnout is getting too high to the point we might have a really polarized result

I'm feeling that the ideal real of high Dem and indy turnout and low GOP turnout is just not going to happen—the Republicans love them some Trump—so I'm putting my hope in Dem turnout being really high and Indys breaking heavily against Trump's party.

Yes, this could happen. Best bet for Dems to have some kind of wave is to independents break towards them in big numbers, cause R voters seem very energized as well.. At least it's in these early states where early vote does mean something like in NV or FL.

So, two swing counties from FL and same trend like in other big counties

In Duval, Dems have edged Republicans on day 1 44,6-43,3. In 2014 total result of early vote was 42,4-39,9 and in 2016 it was 44,2-39,1

In Hilsoborough Dems have 44.0-40,3 lead. In 2014 total was 44,3-37,7. In 2016 42,4-33,9.

So republicans outperforming their total percentage numbers both from 2014 and 2016 in all these big counties so far.

[bilaps]

In Lee county, republicans have 56,1% of the early vote on day 1. Total 2014 50,11, total 2016 45,7.