Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 15, 2019, 05:53:51 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | | |-+  OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10  (Read 882 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,932
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 15, 2018, 12:10:43 am »

Sept. 12-13, among 680 likely voters, by Hoffman Research Group:

Quote
Table 3. If the General Election for Governor of Oregon were held today, would you vote for Republican party candidate Knute Buehler, Constitution Party candidate Aaron Auer, Democratic & Working Families party candidate Kate Brown, Libertarian party candidate Nick Chen, or Independent party candidate Patrick Starnes? (ORDER OF CANDIDATES ROTATED)

46% Kate Brown (D-Inc.)
36% Knute Buehler (R)
  4% Patrick Starnes (I)
  1% Nick Chen (L)
  1% Aaron Auer (C)
12% Undecided

With leaners, it's 49-39-5-2-1 for Brown.

Brown has a 42-41 favorable rating, Buehler is at 27-27.

https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-poll-results-governors-race-sanctuary-law
Logged
Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,276
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2018, 12:14:24 am »

But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?
Logged
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2018, 12:14:43 am »

But the poll that said Trump would win Oregon told me that Brown would lose. How could this be?!
Logged

Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 12:15:06 am »

But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?

Damn, beat me by 20 seconds...
Logged

Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2018, 12:15:44 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,932
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 12:16:47 am »

There's also this:

Quote
The Buehler campaign declined to comment on the survey.  But Republicans officials were quick to release portions of a poll conducted for No Supermajorities PAC, which is helping fund GOP legislative campaigns.

That Sept. 6-11 survey of 2,831 voters, by Causeway Solutions of Washington, D.C., showed Buehler at 43 percent and Brown at 41 percent. The margin of error is just under 2 percentage points.
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,298
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 12:22:31 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.
Logged

I'm a Southern Blue-Dog Democrat... one of the few still left...

#FDT

Proud Member of the Federalist party in Atlasia.

olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 12:25:11 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo
Logged
Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,298
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2018, 12:28:43 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.
Logged

I'm a Southern Blue-Dog Democrat... one of the few still left...

#FDT

Proud Member of the Federalist party in Atlasia.

olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2018, 12:32:05 am »

Yes, Cuomo can
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,695
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2018, 12:34:06 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers arenít as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.
Logged

Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2018, 12:51:06 am »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers arenít as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.
Logged

matthew27
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,469
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2018, 01:02:49 am »

Great news!!! Go Kate!
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2018, 01:08:57 am »

I will have to see a few more polls before I move this into the +7.5% D category, but it does appear that Buehler's "faux hipness" campaign targeting Indies in Metro PDX, and to a lesser extent in downstate smaller Metro areas such as Salem (Marion/Polk), Eugene-Springfield (Lane), and in the Mid Valley places such as Linn-Benton Counties is starting to scrape deep into the bottom of the barrel.

Simply put, it's not the Year for a "Liberal Republican" to unseat a relatively new Progressive Governor of Oregon in a State that generally has extremely high levels of voter turnout thanks to AVR and VBM....

Trump obviously is something in the back of every potential Dem > R swing voters minds in Oregon, regardless of the suburbs of PDX, the Cities of the Valley, Southern Oregon and the Coastal parts of the state.
Logged

olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2018, 01:13:30 am »

I think Mills and Cuomo have a lot to worry about than Kate Brown, NE has elected Moderates more so than centrist Dems like Mills or Cuomo.
Logged
Clinton Blumenthal Murphy Lamont voter for Trump
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,407
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2018, 07:40:14 am »

Lean D->Likely D.
Logged

Connecticut is a tossup thanks to people like me. Smiley
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,773
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2018, 07:52:42 am »

2016 redux?
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,895
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2018, 02:12:43 pm »

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Spenstar
Spenstar3D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,164
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 02:39:17 pm »

Yeah, this is a Likely D race, I see that now.

BTW Cuomo isn't losing this year. He's beyond safe.
Logged

Progressive Pessimist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,914
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2018, 07:32:37 pm »

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.
Logged

Florida is, and always will be, the worst state in the country!
Hydera
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,372


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2018, 10:25:54 pm »

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?
Logged

NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2018, 11:36:25 pm »

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?

This should give you a decent starting point about Oregon Politics....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

Here is another really good poster on another Forum, who actually inspired some of my works when it comes to looking at Oregon from a more holistic perspective....

https://www.dailykos.com/news/OregonPoliticalGeography

Bottom line: Frequent divergence between Presidential / US Senate / US REP results vs Statewide Oregon Elections, but "Conservative" in Oregon even in rural areas isn't exactly what it means in many other places in the US.   

Hope that helps provide further research angles, especially when we start to look at "Upstate" and "Downstate" dynamics.....
Logged

Hydera
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,372


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2018, 11:59:46 am »

https://twitter.com/symscons/status/1024100768398241792



Also my guess is that Gubernatorial Dem candidates tend to underperform compared to the Presidential party due to the burbs.





I wonder if theres a difference between how Oregonians see the National candidate and the Gubernatorial candidate. Perhaps the Gubernatorial dem candidate is seen as more leftist on economics which might get better results in rural/lower density areas but not as good in suburban areas.

Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines