OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10

[Tender Branson]

Sept. 12-13, among 680 likely voters, by Hoffman Research Group:

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46% Kate Brown (D-Inc.)
36% Knute Buehler (R)
  4% Patrick Starnes (I)
  1% Nick Chen (L)
  1% Aaron Auer (C)
12% Undecided

With leaners, it's 49-39-5-2-1 for Brown.

Brown has a 42-41 favorable rating, Buehler is at 27-27.

https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-poll-results-governors-race-sanctuary-law

[ON Progressive]

But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?

[IceSpear]

But the poll that said Trump would win Oregon told me that Brown would lose. How could this be?!

[IceSpear]

But what about Gravis and a pollster that had Trump winning Oregon?

Damn, beat me by 20 seconds...

[Xing]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.

[Tender Branson]

There's also this:

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[Co-Chair Bagel23]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Cuomo can

[Technocracy Timmy]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers aren’t as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.

[IceSpear]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe DStrong Likely D. News at 11.

Sleeper race is Cuomo or Newsom losing, more so Cuomo

Cuomo and Newsom would not lose even if they touched children.

Are we still making this stupid argument after Roy Moore lost in a state that was seemingly invincible for Republicans? Californians and New Yorkers aren’t as brain dead stupid as Alabama republicans.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Great news!!! Go Kate!

[NOVA Green]

I will have to see a few more polls before I move this into the +7.5% D category, but it does appear that Buehler's "faux hipness" campaign targeting Indies in Metro PDX, and to a lesser extent in downstate smaller Metro areas such as Salem (Marion/Polk), Eugene-Springfield (Lane), and in the Mid Valley places such as Linn-Benton Counties is starting to scrape deep into the bottom of the barrel.

Simply put, it's not the Year for a "Liberal Republican" to unseat a relatively new Progressive Governor of Oregon in a State that generally has extremely high levels of voter turnout thanks to AVR and VBM....

Trump obviously is something in the back of every potential Dem > R swing voters minds in Oregon, regardless of the suburbs of PDX, the Cities of the Valley, Southern Oregon and the Coastal parts of the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Mills and Cuomo have a lot to worry about than Kate Brown, NE has elected Moderates more so than centrist Dems like Mills or Cuomo.

[Politician]

Lean D->Likely D.

[Skye]

2016 redux?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, this is a Likely D race, I see that now.

BTW Cuomo isn't losing this year. He's beyond safe.

[Progressive Pessimist]

B-b-b-but muh strong candidate Buehler! Muh weak incumbent Brown! Muh sleeper race! Muh Oregon is ripe for the picking for the GOP muh!!!

Oregon is Safe D. News at 11.

[Hydera]

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?

[NOVA Green]

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?

This should give you a decent starting point about Oregon Politics....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

Here is another really good poster on another Forum, who actually inspired some of my works when it comes to looking at Oregon from a more holistic perspective....

https://www.dailykos.com/news/OregonPoliticalGeography

Bottom line: Frequent divergence between Presidential / US Senate / US REP results vs Statewide Oregon Elections, but "Conservative" in Oregon even in rural areas isn't exactly what it means in many other places in the US.   

Hope that helps provide further research angles, especially when we start to look at "Upstate" and "Downstate" dynamics.....

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/symscons/status/1024100768398241792



Also my guess is that Gubernatorial Dem candidates tend to underperform compared to the Presidential party due to the burbs.





I wonder if theres a difference between how Oregonians see the National candidate and the Gubernatorial candidate. Perhaps the Gubernatorial dem candidate is seen as more leftist on economics which might get better results in rural/lower density areas but not as good in suburban areas.