Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 24, 2019, 12:21:08 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO: YouGov/CBS - Tied
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MO: YouGov/CBS - Tied  (Read 1552 times)
Councilor Zaybay
Zaybay
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,175
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 16, 2018, 10:44:06 am »

An RV poll done by YouGov found:

45% - McCaskill

45% - Hawley

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e6xjamn6e9/cbs_20180916_MO_finalforrelease.pdf
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,603
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2018, 11:14:24 am »

Yeah tossup.
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,835
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2018, 11:16:42 am »

How many ties have there been for this race?
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,235
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2018, 11:24:15 am »

Trump approval is 50-50

42% believe Democrats have put the interests of the working class over corporations, 33% say vice versa. 53% believe the GOP has put the interest of large corporations over the working class, 17% say vice versa.
Logged
Polarized MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,406
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2018, 11:27:47 am »

Here’s why this means the race is Likely D/R:
Logged
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2018, 11:33:45 am »

Here’s why this means the race is Likely D/R:

Agreed. It will likely go either D or R. 3rd parties do not stand a chance!
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,750
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2018, 12:09:57 pm »

Yeah tossup.
Logged
SnowLabrador
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 633
P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2018, 03:15:28 pm »

I think this will be the closest Democratic hold of the night, with a 1.5% margin or so.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,987
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2018, 03:57:30 pm »

How many ties have there been for this race?

Yeah it's starting to get suspicious. Even if the race is truly tied, you should see candidates trade leads more often (the way Donnelly and Braun are doing, for example), just due to sampling variance.
Logged
wbrocks67
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 785
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 04:20:19 pm »

This is YouGov, which tens to be a bit more R-leaning. Kind of shocking to see Trump's approval = in multiple MO polls, where he won by 20 points.
Logged
elastic jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,389


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2018, 05:35:28 pm »

Likely R to Likely D to Toss up.


Still think at the end Hawley and galloway both win
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 909
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2018, 05:59:35 pm »

This is YouGov, which tens to be a bit more R-leaning. Kind of shocking to see Trump's approval = in multiple MO polls, where he won by 20 points.

538 rates You Gov as a B pollster with a bias of D+.3.
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,117
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2018, 06:15:56 pm »

This will go down to wire.
Logged
TarHeelDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,176
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2018, 03:24:15 pm »

Tilt D. Very important for the Dems to invest and bring this one home.
Logged
Southern Delegate matthew27
matthew27
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,679
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2018, 06:45:52 pm »

The fact that quite a few democrats incumbents are so close tells me that the blue wave is having a little bit of trouble forming. This latest attack on half of our population could kill it all together.
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,117
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2018, 06:51:34 pm »

It's a blue Gubernatorial map MI, WI, PA v red Senate map and Dems losing 1 red Inc in IN, ND or MO and winning AZ, TN, MSb and NV still allows them control and blue Gov map should allow Dems to win House😁
Logged
Once & Future Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,150
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2018, 04:03:31 am »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 04:11:12 am by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

I've been saying for a long time that I think MO is actually the most vulnerable Democratic seat, namely because of what I consider to be convergent political factors. Simply put, all of the other red state Democrats (we're excluding FL in this) are on the favorable side of one or more lines that give those candidates an advantage.

First is "the white line". You'll notice that all of the competitive red state Democrats basically follow a trajectory/are north of a line going from WV to MT. North of this line are areas where whites tend to be far more Democratic and/or swingy (especially in rural areas) and where they are - in most of these states - very reliant on white voters who are willing to split their tickets. In many ways, racial polarization is much weaker north of this line due to the relative lack of minority populations. This obviously provides red state Democrats some advantages when compared to other candidates' past performances in their states.

Then there's also the Great Plains and the Rust Belt, two regions which I think deserve their own delineations and also generally tend to be more supportive of Democrats from their own areas (and thus provide red state Democrats some advantages).

Notice how there's only 1 red state Democrat on the wrong end of all 3 lines:

Img
Logged
elastic jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,389


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2018, 04:18:22 am »

I've been saying for a long time that I think MO is actually the most vulnerable Democratic seat, namely because of what I consider to be convergent political factors.

Heitkamp may be slightly more vulnerable but I do agree with you about McCaskill overall.

It is funny that last year everyone was saying she was DOA and will be blanched and I got ridiculed for calling a toss up.

This year most people have it as Lean or likely D (wtf) and I am still getting ridiculed for having it a toss up. For it to be "Lean D" Greitens would have had to stay in.

I still think when the dust settles that McCaskill (D) will lose and Galloway (D) will win.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,123
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2018, 01:20:35 am »

It seems there's another round coming out today, according to Politico, but not sure which states.
Logged
Galletito
cookiedamage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,631


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2018, 12:57:36 am »

The fact that quite a few democrats incumbents are so close tells me that the blue wave is having a little bit of trouble forming. This latest attack on half of our population could kill it all together.

#HotTake
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,117
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2018, 01:40:12 am »

Yeah, MO along with MT and FL will go down to wire as well as TN
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC