Quebec election poll: Which would you rather see

[136or142]

It seems support for the two parties is inversely related.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever combination puts QS in a better position. I'm guessing the former.

[Senator Incitatus]

Is QS pro-independence? Sovereigntism has always been a bit vague to me.

Also, as a tangentially-related question: Hypothetically, would most Québécois supporting independence prefer annexation by France or USA? (I understand most would probably prefer full sovereignty to both options.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Is QS pro-independence? Sovereigntism has always been a bit vague to me.

Yes

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Quebec wants nothing to do with France. They do have an actual political party running on joining the US (they are running a candidate), so if that's any evidence of Quebecers preferring American annexation...

Very oddly, Quebecers have a deep connection with the US (perhaps it's an anti-Canadian thing?). Many elderly Quebecers retire to Florida, and of course, there was in the past a mass exodus of French Canadians to New England and the Midwest when the economy wasn't doing so well, and when Quebec was over populated.

There is of course many French immigrants in Quebec these days. Remember those long lines in Montreal for the French presidential election? Apparently since the economy is not so good in France, a lot of them are coming over to Quebec, which has a better economy (despite it's economy not being as good as the rest of Canada).

ANYWAYS, to answer the question. I much prefer a minority government. CAQ's anti-immigrant beliefs are dangerous, and with a minority they are much more likely to implement electoral reform.

[Former President tack50]

CAQ minority, PQ retains official party status easily.

While I'm far from a supporter of Quebec independence, PQ seems like a better party than CAQ.

[DC Al Fine]

Whatever combination puts QS in a better position. I'm guessing the former.

That's correct.

ANYWAYS, to answer the question. I much prefer a minority government. CAQ's anti-immigrant beliefs are dangerous, and with a minority they are much more likely to implement electoral reform.

Is the PQ any better? They had that creepy Charter of Values not too long ago. If that's the case, I'd rather kill off the separatist party once and for all and get Quebec back on a normal political spectrum.

[Hatman 🍁]

Whatever combination puts QS in a better position. I'm guessing the former.

That's correct.

ANYWAYS, to answer the question. I much prefer a minority government. CAQ's anti-immigrant beliefs are dangerous, and with a minority they are much more likely to implement electoral reform.

Is the PQ any better? They had that creepy Charter of Values not too long ago. If that's the case, I'd rather kill off the separatist party once and for all and get Quebec back on a normal political spectrum.

They're not, but at least they are economically more leftist. And losing party status won't kill them off, I don't think. Finishing behind the QS might, though.

[RogueBeaver]

The former, obviously.

[DC Al Fine]

Whatever combination puts QS in a better position. I'm guessing the former.

That's correct.

ANYWAYS, to answer the question. I much prefer a minority government. CAQ's anti-immigrant beliefs are dangerous, and with a minority they are much more likely to implement electoral reform.

Is the PQ any better? They had that creepy Charter of Values not too long ago. If that's the case, I'd rather kill off the separatist party once and for all and get Quebec back on a normal political spectrum.

They're not, but at least they are economically more leftist. And losing party status won't kill them off, I don't think. Finishing behind the QS might, though.

I would consider the language Naziism and separatism way more important than economics. Glad I'm an Anglo. I would have a very hard time deciding  who to vote for if I was Franco. The options are so bad! Holding your nose for the corrupt federalists is much easier.

[136or142]

Is QS pro-independence? Sovereigntism has always been a bit vague to me.

Also, as a tangentially-related question: Hypothetically, would most Québécois supporting independence prefer annexation by France or USA? (I understand most would probably prefer full sovereignty to both options.)

QS is officially pro-independence which I gather is one reason why the federal NDP has never more than tacitly endorsed it but they downplay their support for independence.

[JG]

Whatever combination puts QS in a better position. I'm guessing the former.

That's correct.

ANYWAYS, to answer the question. I much prefer a minority government. CAQ's anti-immigrant beliefs are dangerous, and with a minority they are much more likely to implement electoral reform.

Is the PQ any better? They had that creepy Charter of Values not too long ago. If that's the case, I'd rather kill off the separatist party once and for all and get Quebec back on a normal political spectrum.

They're not, but at least they are economically more leftist. And losing party status won't kill them off, I don't think. Finishing behind the QS might, though.

I would consider the language Naziism and separatism way more important than economics. Glad I'm an Anglo. I would have a very hard time deciding  who to vote for if I was Franco. The options are so bad! Holding your nose for the corrupt federalists is much easier.

I'm a federalist Franco and it's so depressing to have to vote for the corrupt liberals every damn election because they are the only remotely decent option. Anyway, I would rather have a CAQ minority and the PQ keeping their official party status because, despite all their xenophobia, they are still less of a car wreck than the CAQ.

[MAINEiac4434]

I hate both CAQ and PQ, but would rather have a Minority CAQ Government than a majority one.

[Velasco]

I suspect that a CAQ majority government could be terrible. I would rather prefer hat the PQ retains party status in order to represent pro-independence voters. Also, I would like there was a party in the left that overcomes the divide between souverainistes and federalistes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

QS had doubled down on the nationalist agenda with its swallowing of the tiny ON.

Really PQ should just die in a hole and allow the NDP to seize the mantle of the left in Québec.

[King of Kensington]

Really PQ should just die in a hole and allow the NDP to seize the mantle of the left in Québec.

That ain't gonna happen. 

BTW there was a Quebec section that went sovereigntist in the 1980s and cut all ties to the NDP.

[EPG]

Maybe support for left-wing politics is just really weak.

[parochial boy]

Maybe support for left-wing politics is just really weak.

... in Quebec?

[EPG]

Well, struggle otherwise to explain how the recent three most popular parties are a big-tent federalist and minority party, a reasonably orthodox conservative party, and a pro-majority nationalist party with a socialist/developmental heritage to which very little attention is paid any more.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really PQ should just die in a hole and allow the NDP to seize the mantle of the left in Québec.

That ain't gonna happen. 

BTW there was a Quebec section that went sovereigntist in the 1980s and cut all ties to the NDP.

Yes, and that party is now Quebec Solidaire.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, struggle otherwise to explain how the recent three most popular parties are a big-tent federalist and minority party, a reasonably orthodox conservative party, and a pro-majority nationalist party with a socialist/developmental heritage to which very little attention is paid any more.

The sovereignty question has dominated the question for so long that bog standard conservatives/socialists didnt have any breathing room. If you're main focus is separating from/staying in Canada you're going to make compromises on economics. It's only been in the last 10 years or so that parties focused on non-sovereignty issues have gotten very much traction.

[parochial boy]

And Quebec has the highest personal taxation in Canada, the highest social spending; factor in all the nationalisations during the silent revolution (or the orange wave in 2011 tbh), and you can't really say that there isn't a left wing vote in Quebec.

[Velasco]

Well, struggle otherwise to explain how the recent three most popular parties are a big-tent federalist and minority party, a reasonably orthodox conservative party, and a pro-majority nationalist party with a socialist/developmental heritage to which very little attention is paid any more.

I'm far from being an expert in Canadian politics, but even an ignorant like me knows that there is a great difference in electoral behaviour between federal and provincial elections. While provincial politics in Quebec are dominated by identity issues (independence, sovereignty, the 'national question'), in the last federal elections voters have preferred Liberals* (centre) and NDP (centre-left) over the Conservatives (right).

2011 Federal Election: NDP 42.9%, BQ 23.4%,Con 16.5%, Lib 14.2%, Green 2.1%
2015 Federal Election: Lib 35.7%, NDP 25.4%, BQ 19.3%, Con 16.7%, Green 2.3%

* _{Notice that Canadian Liberals and the QLP are not necessarily the same thing}

So please, try to explain why voters in Quebec lean to cenre-right in provincial elections and lean to the centre-left in federal elections.

[EPG]

Oh, that's not too hard. Since 2011 NDP has been the soft sovereigntist option. Before 2011 those people voted for the BQ, while the NDP polled 2-11%, persistently less than the centre-right parties. Now one can argue that BQ was centre-left, but one can also argue that both NDP and BQ were mainly about powers for Québec. So we can't resolve the question with just electoral results. Comparative psephology is really limited if we just label parties as left-wing or right-wing, because we end up saying Danish Venstre is more right-wing than Tony Blair's New Labour.

I must say I don't find the Québec=left evidence as conclusive as many other people do, but I seem to have many contrarian opinions about Canadian politics, e.g. I was mocked for speculating that the Liberal Party would outlast the Conservative Party in 2014 - who's laughing now? It is indeed more productive to look at policies. All I can say on domestic policies is that a European government adopting Québec's domestic policies toward minorities would be ostracised by most of the European left, like Slovakia's government.

Assuming that's a special case, one can certainly say Québec is relatively economically directed by its government compared to some other provinces. But two caveats exist due to Québec's rather low incomes compared to the rest of Canada: Québec receives far more equalisation payments than any other province, of course; less obviously, the federal income tax is progressive and therefore its burden on Québec is lower, leaving more room for provincial tax (Edit: Top headline tax rates are also paid by fewer people). So even on fiscals, I don't think it's conclusive that underlying preferences are so different, though it would not be surprising for some differences to exist across two language groups.

[Velasco]

Oh, that's not too hard. Since 2011 NDP has been the soft sovereigntist option. Before 2011 those people voted for the BQ, while the NDP polled 2-11%, persistently less than the centre-right parties. Now one can argue that BQ was centre-left, but one can also argue that both NDP and BQ were mainly about powers for Québec. So we can't resolve the question with just electoral results. Comparative psephology is really limited if we just label parties as left-wing or right-wing, because we end up saying Danish Venstre is more right-wing than Tony Blair's New Labour.

Many people who voted BQ in previous elections voted NDP in 2011: this seems to be the undusputed fact. If I understand correctly, you claim those voters switched party only across sovereignty lines and not across ideology lines. On the other hand, you claim that Quebec voters lean to the right because CAQ and PLQ are leading the polls for the next provincial election. Right? Well, as I said before I'm not an expert in Quebec affairs. However, there is some research on the 2011 election results that suggests otherwise:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/did-they-mind-the-gap-voterparty-ideological-proximity-between-the-bq-the-ndp-and-quebec-voters-20062011/

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 Also, there is some comparative research of electoral behaviours in Catalonia and Quebec that might be interesting because of the "ethno-nationalist context"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001110

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Leaving aside the 'ethno-nationalist' thing, I think Catalonia and Quebec have in common a phenomenon called 'dual voting', that is to say, people voting differently in provincial/regional elections and in federal/general elections. Determining the factors that influence that behaviour is rather complex.

In my humble opinion you take into account or ignore the 'national', economic or 'social ideological' dimensions at your convenience.

[EPG]

Perhaps one can most usefully say that in 2011 and 2015, many people in Québec voted for the more left-wing federal government option, but that wasn't the case before 2011. Seems most reasonable interpretation.