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Author Topic: AZ-CNN/SSRS Ducey+3  (Read 955 times)
Former Senator Zaybay
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« on: September 17, 2018, 11:15:39 am »

This poll was conducted by SSRS/CCN, crosstabs should be posted soon

Doug Ducey*(R)- 49%

David Garcia(D)- 46%

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-tennessee-senate/index.html


One interesting thing to note,(the only thing I could find) many voters saw Ducey's appointment as good, and say it was a factor in voting for him.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2018, 11:19:50 am by Zaybay »Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 11:19:17 am »

Not good for Garcia that he can't lead in a poll that has Sinema up 7. Still Lean R for now.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2018, 11:26:02 am »

Not good for Garcia that he can't lead in a poll that has Sinema up 7. Still Lean R for now.

To be fair, incumbents are generally more difficult to give the boot than winning an open seat.
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Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2018, 12:13:26 pm »

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2018, 12:34:46 pm »

Lean Garcia
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2018, 12:52:22 pm »

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.

I think so too.

Among Likely Voters

60 % Approve of appointing Kyl
20 % Disapprove of appointing Kyl
13 % No Opinion

Chekmate for Ducey. He will win this.

I actually think that there will be lots of Ticket Splitting this Fall. AZ is heading that way as is potentially TN as well.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2018, 12:57:50 pm »

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.

I think so too.

Among Likely Voters

60 % Approve of appointing Kyl
20 % Disapprove of appointing Kyl
13 % No Opinion

Chekmate for Ducey. He will win this.

I actually think that there will be lots of Ticket Splitting this Fall. AZ is heading that way as is potentially TN as well.

You are partially correct. It does seem that voters approve of the decision, and his approval has subsequently increased. The question is, is this a bump, or permanent. Based on what its about, a senatorial appointment, its not likely going to last all the way to Nov. Thats the real question, will this last?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2018, 01:03:41 pm »

What I'm really curious about is how Democrats are fairing in the generic ballot for Arizona. The Republicans don't have a super big majority in either chamber, so a chamber flipping isn't completely out of the question.
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2018, 01:07:22 pm »

Lean Republican. Before and now.
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2018, 01:29:03 pm »

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.

I think so too.

Among Likely Voters

60 % Approve of appointing Kyl
20 % Disapprove of appointing Kyl
13 % No Opinion

Chekmate for Ducey. He will win this.

I actually think that there will be lots of Ticket Splitting this Fall. AZ is heading that way as is potentially TN as well.

You are partially correct. It does seem that voters approve of the decision, and his approval has subsequently increased. The question is, is this a bump, or permanent. Based on what its about, a senatorial appointment, its not likely going to last all the way to Nov. Thats the real question, will this last?

We also don't know what Reputation SSRS has in Statewide Polling. They're completely new to this Game after CNN dumped ORC after early in 2017.

Until 2004 CNN has had Gallup as their Primary Pollster; Then they switched to ORC for 13 years; Now they are with SSRS.

CNN botched a lot of their Statewide Polling in 2014 & 2016 with ORC. I'm inclined to trust the Local AZ Pollsters like OH/Predictive Insights or Data Orbital a bit more than CNN/SSRS at this Point until they are proven.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2018, 02:54:46 pm »

I can't for the life of me begin to figure out what kind of voter thinks "well, I wasn't too hot on Ducey until now, but since he's appointed some Generic R former Senator now I love him!"
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2018, 02:56:57 pm »

Terrible poll for Garcia.
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2018, 07:06:15 pm »

I can't for the life of me begin to figure out what kind of voter thinks "well, I wasn't too hot on Ducey until now, but since he's appointed some Generic R former Senator now I love him!"

You act as if voters are reasonable and sensible.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2018, 07:39:12 pm »

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.
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Mondale
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2018, 07:41:24 pm »

Garcia is done
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2018, 09:24:50 pm »

Terrible poll for Garcia.

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.

Garcia is done

Because he's down 3 points on an incumbent several weeks before a likely wave election? Huh
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2018, 10:13:35 pm »

Terrible poll for Garcia.

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.

Garcia is done

Because he's down 3 points on an incumbent several weeks before a likely wave election? Huh

Don't you get it an incumbent being at 49% practically means he's at 109%!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2018, 12:23:49 am »

What I get from this, is that appears that Ducey was able to successfully navigate the politics of the Teachers strike in Arizona, and that at this point has a likely narrow edge come November in his reelection battle.

Still, it shouldn't be forgotten that Garcia is relatively well known within AZ and almost won a Statewide Election for Superintendent of Education a few Years back, and that we still have a giant wildcard when it comes to Working-Class Latino Turnout levels, that might well be underestimated, especially with a US-SEN race on the line, and there is an underground resistance community where many Latinos listen to the underground radio station KUFW-FM that is streamed live into the fields, farmlands, warehouses, and factories of the broader Latino Community deep into the Cities of the American West....

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/09/hispanic-latino-immigrants-resist-trump-radio-campesina-219737

https://onlineradiobox.com/us/knai/

A spectre is haunting the United States of America – the spectre of Socialism.

All the powers of old America have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre....

Where is the party in opposition that has not been decried as Socialistic by its opponents in
power? Where is the opposition that has not hurled back the branding reproach of Socialism,
against the more advanced opposition parties, as well as against its reactionary adversaries?

Two things result from this fact:
I. Socialism is already acknowledged by all Advanced Industrial Nations to be itself a
power.
II. It is high time that Socialists should openly, in the face of the whole world,
publish their views, their aims, their tendencies, and meet this nursery tale of the
Spectre of Socialists with a manifesto of the party itself.


Trumpism as a reactionary, Nativist, and even arguably a racist ideology, is being met with an underground voice voz that speaks directly to the collective experiences experiencia colectiva of a fundamentally working-class and marginalized community from the Central Valley of California, to the Cities of Southern California, out to Phoenix Arizona, and even stretching way out in places like Houston, DFW, and Denver....

Play time is over folks.... the future of the American Working-Class is in the increasingly activist Latino Populations of the Western US, where thanks to DJT are increasingly moving in the direction of a deep Socialist Red....

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=victor+jara+plegaria+a+un+labrador

https://lyricstranslate.com/en/plegaria-un-labrador-prayer-farmer.html

Ducey might survive this Year, Democrats in Arizona might be able to thread the needle running as Centrist or Right-Wing Democrats, but at some point, the dam will collapse, so long as National Political leaders of both Parties continue to pursue policies that systematically disenfranchise the dispossessed and "wretched of the earth", that are essentially those who perform the worst jobs, at the lowest wages, and continue to ignore such basic elements as human dignity, recognition of the hard work contributed by our Brothers and Sisters, regardless of which side of the River, when after all some of the biggest sacrifices in Iraq War 2.0 were disproportionately born on the backs of the Dreamers and 1st Generation Latino-Americans....

Anyways.... just something to think about. Won't kill Ducey this Year, nor likely McSally, but come 2020 there will likely be a major reckoning, or possibly in 2022 or 2024 in Arizona, Texas, and so many other parts of the US....



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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2018, 03:42:11 am »

Terrible poll for Garcia.

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.

Garcia is done

Because he's down 3 points on an incumbent several weeks before a likely wave election? Huh

Because he’s trailing by 3 in a poll that has Sinema up 7. I still consider this a Tossup, though.
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TX more competitive than OH
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2018, 04:32:49 am »

Terrible poll for Garcia.

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.

Garcia is done

Because he's down 3 points on an incumbent several weeks before a likely wave election? Huh

Because he’s trailing by 3 in a poll that has Sinema up 7. I still consider this a Tossup, though.

I think it's (relatively) bad for Garcia moreso because this poll has Trump at 39-57. Which, uh, seems kind of low. Unless he's at 60% disapproval nationwide.
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2018, 04:34:30 am »

I think it's (relatively) bad for Garcia moreso because this poll has Trump at 39-57. Which, uh, seems kind of low. Unless he's at 60% disapproval nationwide.

Oh yeah, definitely. Same with TN for Bredesen where Trump's approval was a bit low, if you ask me.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2018, 04:37:07 am »

Ducey almost lost in 2014, I think he loses this year
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2018, 06:03:59 pm »

I can't for the life of me begin to figure out what kind of voter thinks "well, I wasn't too hot on Ducey until now, but since he's appointed some Generic R former Senator now I love him!"

You act as if voters are reasonable and sensible.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2018, 06:41:58 pm »

Terrible poll for Garcia.

This race was never as competitive as it seemed.

Garcia is done

Because he's down 3 points on an incumbent several weeks before a likely wave election? Huh

I for one am not discounting that a 3 point win would be pathetic for Ducey, but I don't think Garcia will win, even if it is narrow. It's not a bad showing but may indicate that Arizona continues to be a c*cktease for Democrats. We'll see about the Senate election though, that may contradict this.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2018, 09:10:36 pm »

I can't for the life of me begin to figure out what kind of voter thinks "well, I wasn't too hot on Ducey until now, but since he's appointed some Generic R former Senator now I love him!"

You act as if voters are reasonable and sensible.

I never said or implied that much, but they are not typically unreasonable and insensible in this particular way.
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