AZ-CNN/SSRS Ducey+3

[2016]

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.

I think so too.

Among Likely Voters

60 % Approve of appointing Kyl
20 % Disapprove of appointing Kyl
13 % No Opinion

Chekmate for Ducey. He will win this.

I actually think that there will be lots of Ticket Splitting this Fall. AZ is heading that way as is potentially TN as well.

[2016]

The McCain appointment will likely save Ducey if he wins.

I think so too.

Among Likely Voters

60 % Approve of appointing Kyl
20 % Disapprove of appointing Kyl
13 % No Opinion

Chekmate for Ducey. He will win this.

I actually think that there will be lots of Ticket Splitting this Fall. AZ is heading that way as is potentially TN as well.

You are partially correct. It does seem that voters approve of the decision, and his approval has subsequently increased. The question is, is this a bump, or permanent. Based on what its about, a senatorial appointment, its not likely going to last all the way to Nov. Thats the real question, will this last?

We also don't know what Reputation SSRS has in Statewide Polling. They're completely new to this Game after CNN dumped ORC after early in 2017.

Until 2004 CNN has had Gallup as their Primary Pollster; Then they switched to ORC for 13 years; Now they are with SSRS.

CNN botched a lot of their Statewide Polling in 2014 & 2016 with ORC. I'm inclined to trust the Local AZ Pollsters like OH/Predictive Insights or Data Orbital a bit more than CNN/SSRS at this Point until they are proven.