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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  How did Trump win Florida
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 4688 times)
jman123
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« on: September 17, 2018, 03:54:18 pm »

What was Trump's  path to victory in Florida in Nov 2016? How did he win it?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 04:01:33 pm »

What was Trump's  path to victory in Florida in Nov 2016? How did he win it?

The Orlando shooting and Obama winning the state twice. Florida is a R-leaning swing state federally; if Trump wasn’t on the ballot it probably would’ve gone R by a larger margin.
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TML
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2018, 04:38:44 pm »

The decisive region was the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity. This area contains many people who formerly resided in the upper Midwest, and since that region broke for Trump, this region also did the same. If the Republican margins in these counties had stayed around Obama's 2012 levels, FL would have gone D.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2018, 04:42:47 pm »

Since the Dems didnt win nationally by the margin they need to do win Florida. Obama in 2012 also really should have lost Flordia but Romney pick of Ryan and him winning by 4 points nationally gave Obama a narrow victory there. Another reason is the Cuba deal might have given the GOP the edge in a state like FL.


Here's something interesting though: Hillary unlike in the rust belt not only outperformed Obama in FL she did so by more than 200k votes and despite that she still lost the state.
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2018, 04:45:45 pm »

Romney was a terrible candidate for Florida, as it has many white working class voters, many of whom, as TML said, are transplants from the north. White populists like Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton were all good candidates for these voters.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2018, 06:00:31 pm »

By polling more votes in the state than his opponent.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2018, 07:26:27 pm »

Romney was a terrible candidate for Florida, as it has many white working class voters, many of whom, as TML said, are transplants from the north. White populists like Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton were all good candidates for these voters.


Also John McCain was too boring for these voters back in '08.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2018, 09:12:16 pm »

Since the Dems didnt win nationally by the margin they need to do win Florida. Obama in 2012 also really should have lost Flordia but Romney pick of Ryan and him winning by 4 points nationally gave Obama a narrow victory there. Another reason is the Cuba deal might have given the GOP the edge in a state like FL.


Here's something interesting though: Hillary unlike in the rust belt not only outperformed Obama in FL she did so by more than 200k votes and despite that she still lost the state.

I think the Cuba deal was not in and itself enough to tip FL to Trump. Polls conducted among Cuban-Americans indicated that over 40% of those who supported the deal (which comprise of over 60% of Cuban-Americans overall) voted for Trump.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2018, 11:04:37 pm »

I mean, have you ever been to Florida?  Have you ever met anyone from Florida?
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New Frontier
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2018, 09:11:16 am »

I mean, have you ever been to Florida?  Have you ever met anyone from Florida?
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2018, 08:16:11 pm »

Rural whites inspired by Trump's racism swamped any increased minority turnout. Same way he won North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2018, 07:54:24 pm »

By polling more votes in the state than his opponent.
Is it too low effort/dumb to hilariously misinterpret your post as saying he won because his campaign asked more people who they'd vote for before the election?
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2018, 01:28:16 pm »

Clinton's floor of support fell out in FL-6, FL-11 and FL-12 which cost her the state relative to Obama. Trump really appeals to the older folks of those districts, I think FL-11 has the highest median age of any district in the nation and FL-6 isn't far behind. MCI maps has a great write up on it.

http://mcimaps.com/how-floridas-congressional-districts-voted-and-the-impact-of-redistricting/
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here2view
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2018, 02:41:15 pm »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.
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TML
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2018, 05:41:44 pm »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2018, 11:09:08 pm »

Rubio, was his way to win FL
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2018, 01:34:20 pm »

Boomers. The worst generation when it comes to voting.
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Donborvio
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2018, 04:50:30 pm »

Boomers. The worst generation when it comes to voting.

AND serving in office!
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2018, 09:15:55 am »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.

Yes, Citrus County, Flagler County, Volusia County, Lake County and Polk Counties did Clinton in.
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TML
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2018, 10:14:21 am »

According to a prominent Democratic strategist, the I-4 corridor can be roughly defined as the Orlando and Tampa media markets. In these areas, there are five counties which can be considered "urban": Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole. The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Pinellas: R+31346
Hillsborough: D+4745
Osceola: D+8510
Orange: D+49602
Seminole: D+9969

Overall: D+41480

The other counties in these two media markets are considered "suburban" or "exurban." The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Sarasota: R+11183
Manatee: R+11596
Hardee: R+860
Highlands: R+4861
Polk: R+23042
Pasco: R+37795
Hernando: R+20067
Citrus: R+15465
Sumter: R+8970
Marion: R+19580
Lake: R+13506
Flagler: R+8062
Volusia: R+31174
Brevard: R+25862

Overall: R+232023

On election night 2016, this strategist was reviewing the initial returns shortly after polls closed in the Eastern Time Zone at 7 pm, and although he was initially optimistic at the results from Democratic base regions (South Beach and urban counties of the Orlando/Tampa areas), once he reviewed the results from the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity, he realized by about 7:45 pm that Trump was on track to win Florida, since at that point Hillary's lead wasn't large enough to overcome the expected margins in the Central Time Zone counties.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2018, 12:33:42 pm »

According to a prominent Democratic strategist, the I-4 corridor can be roughly defined as the Orlando and Tampa media markets. In these areas, there are five counties which can be considered "urban": Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole. The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Pinellas: R+31346
Hillsborough: D+4745
Osceola: D+8510
Orange: D+49602
Seminole: D+9969

Overall: D+41480

The other counties in these two media markets are considered "suburban" or "exurban." The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Sarasota: R+11183
Manatee: R+11596
Hardee: R+860
Highlands: R+4861
Polk: R+23042
Pasco: R+37795
Hernando: R+20067
Citrus: R+15465
Sumter: R+8970
Marion: R+19580
Lake: R+13506
Flagler: R+8062
Volusia: R+31174
Brevard: R+25862

Overall: R+232023

On election night 2016, this strategist was reviewing the initial returns shortly after polls closed in the Eastern Time Zone at 7 pm, and although he was initially optimistic at the results from Democratic base regions (South Beach and urban counties of the Orlando/Tampa areas), once he reviewed the results from the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity, he realized by about 7:45 pm that Trump was on track to win Florida, since at that point Hillary's lead wasn't large enough to overcome the expected margins in the Central Time Zone counties.

Sounds like Steve Schale
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2018, 12:37:06 pm »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.

Yes, Citrus County, Flagler County, Volusia County, Lake County and Polk Counties did Clinton in.

So using the data from TML, it seems like the single largest contributing counties were the shift in the margins in Pinellas, Volusia, Pasco, and Brevard.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2018, 02:15:42 pm »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.

Yes, Citrus County, Flagler County, Volusia County, Lake County and Polk Counties did Clinton in.

So using the data from TML, it seems like the single largest contributing counties were the shift in the margins in Pinellas, Volusia, Pasco, and Brevard.

There are TONS of rich old white people in those counties. I was their neighbor for 11 years.
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TML
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2018, 03:03:41 pm »

Also note that if the shifts in the surburban/exurban I-4 counties were only about half of what they had actually been, Hillary would have won FL by a fraction of a percent.
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Fmr Deputy Speaker Spark498
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« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2018, 09:08:14 pm »

Romney was a terrible candidate for Florida, as it has many white working class voters, many of whom, as TML said, are transplants from the north. White populists like Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton were all good candidates for these voters.
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