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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  How did Trump win Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 4751 times)
TML
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« on: September 17, 2018, 04:38:44 pm »

The decisive region was the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity. This area contains many people who formerly resided in the upper Midwest, and since that region broke for Trump, this region also did the same. If the Republican margins in these counties had stayed around Obama's 2012 levels, FL would have gone D.
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 09:12:16 pm »

Since the Dems didnt win nationally by the margin they need to do win Florida. Obama in 2012 also really should have lost Flordia but Romney pick of Ryan and him winning by 4 points nationally gave Obama a narrow victory there. Another reason is the Cuba deal might have given the GOP the edge in a state like FL.


Here's something interesting though: Hillary unlike in the rust belt not only outperformed Obama in FL she did so by more than 200k votes and despite that she still lost the state.

I think the Cuba deal was not in and itself enough to tip FL to Trump. Polls conducted among Cuban-Americans indicated that over 40% of those who supported the deal (which comprise of over 60% of Cuban-Americans overall) voted for Trump.
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TML
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2018, 05:41:44 pm »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.
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TML
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 10:14:21 am »

According to a prominent Democratic strategist, the I-4 corridor can be roughly defined as the Orlando and Tampa media markets. In these areas, there are five counties which can be considered "urban": Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole. The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Pinellas: R+31346
Hillsborough: D+4745
Osceola: D+8510
Orange: D+49602
Seminole: D+9969

Overall: D+41480

The other counties in these two media markets are considered "suburban" or "exurban." The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Sarasota: R+11183
Manatee: R+11596
Hardee: R+860
Highlands: R+4861
Polk: R+23042
Pasco: R+37795
Hernando: R+20067
Citrus: R+15465
Sumter: R+8970
Marion: R+19580
Lake: R+13506
Flagler: R+8062
Volusia: R+31174
Brevard: R+25862

Overall: R+232023

On election night 2016, this strategist was reviewing the initial returns shortly after polls closed in the Eastern Time Zone at 7 pm, and although he was initially optimistic at the results from Democratic base regions (South Beach and urban counties of the Orlando/Tampa areas), once he reviewed the results from the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity, he realized by about 7:45 pm that Trump was on track to win Florida, since at that point Hillary's lead wasn't large enough to overcome the expected margins in the Central Time Zone counties.
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TML
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2018, 03:03:41 pm »

Also note that if the shifts in the surburban/exurban I-4 counties were only about half of what they had actually been, Hillary would have won FL by a fraction of a percent.
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: December 25, 2018, 02:33:15 am »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.

White "working-class" voters gave Trump approximately two-thirds of their votes, if I am not mistaken. And it cannot be denied that his margins and turnout among those voters helped him in Ohio and Florida. Arguably, if they had not turned out in the Florida Panhandle, he would have lost the state to Clinton.

As I said earlier in this thread, it was not the panhandle where Trump made most of his gains; it was in the suburban/exurban areas near Orlando/Tampa where it happened. This area has many people who formerly resided in the Midwest, and their voting patterns matched closely.
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TML
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2019, 01:39:24 am »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.

White "working-class" voters gave Trump approximately two-thirds of their votes, if I am not mistaken. And it cannot be denied that his margins and turnout among those voters helped him in Ohio and Florida. Arguably, if they had not turned out in the Florida Panhandle, he would have lost the state to Clinton.

As I said earlier in this thread, it was not the panhandle where Trump made most of his gains; it was in the suburban/exurban areas near Orlando/Tampa where it happened. This area has many people who formerly resided in the Midwest, and their voting patterns matched closely.

Are you saying that the Panhandle was insignificant?

Read what I said earlier about the change in margins: in northern Florida, along the I-10 corridor, Trump only increased his winning margin by about 37K votes compared to Romney, whereas in the suburban/exurban areas in the Orlando/Tampa area, he increased them by over 230K votes. Tell me which increase was more significant.
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