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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  How did Trump win Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 4662 times)
President Phil Scott
marco.rem451
Sr. Member
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Posts: 355


« on: November 25, 2018, 12:36:24 pm »

According to a prominent Democratic strategist, the I-4 corridor can be roughly defined as the Orlando and Tampa media markets. In these areas, there are five counties which can be considered "urban": Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole. The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Pinellas: R+31346
Hillsborough: D+4745
Osceola: D+8510
Orange: D+49602
Seminole: D+9969

Overall: D+41480

The other counties in these two media markets are considered "suburban" or "exurban." The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Sarasota: R+11183
Manatee: R+11596
Hardee: R+860
Highlands: R+4861
Polk: R+23042
Pasco: R+37795
Hernando: R+20067
Citrus: R+15465
Sumter: R+8970
Marion: R+19580
Lake: R+13506
Flagler: R+8062
Volusia: R+31174
Brevard: R+25862

Overall: R+232023

On election night 2016, this strategist was reviewing the initial returns shortly after polls closed in the Eastern Time Zone at 7 pm, and although he was initially optimistic at the results from Democratic base regions (South Beach and urban counties of the Orlando/Tampa areas), once he reviewed the results from the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity, he realized by about 7:45 pm that Trump was on track to win Florida, since at that point Hillary's lead wasn't large enough to overcome the expected margins in the Central Time Zone counties.

Sounds like Steve Schale
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President Phil Scott
marco.rem451
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 355


« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2018, 09:28:11 pm »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.

Yup, this-then haha...lol (extra)
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