How did Trump win Florida (user search)
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  How did Trump win Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 8299 times)
Chaddyr23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

P P
« on: September 21, 2018, 01:28:16 PM »

Clinton's floor of support fell out in FL-6, FL-11 and FL-12 which cost her the state relative to Obama. Trump really appeals to the older folks of those districts, I think FL-11 has the highest median age of any district in the nation and FL-6 isn't far behind. MCI maps has a great write up on it.

http://mcimaps.com/how-floridas-congressional-districts-voted-and-the-impact-of-redistricting/
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Chaddyr23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2018, 09:15:55 AM »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.

Yes, Citrus County, Flagler County, Volusia County, Lake County and Polk Counties did Clinton in.
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Chaddyr23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2018, 12:33:42 PM »

According to a prominent Democratic strategist, the I-4 corridor can be roughly defined as the Orlando and Tampa media markets. In these areas, there are five counties which can be considered "urban": Pinellas, Hillsborough, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole. The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Pinellas: R+31346
Hillsborough: D+4745
Osceola: D+8510
Orange: D+49602
Seminole: D+9969

Overall: D+41480

The other counties in these two media markets are considered "suburban" or "exurban." The shifts in raw vote margin for these counties from 2012-2016 were as follows:

Sarasota: R+11183
Manatee: R+11596
Hardee: R+860
Highlands: R+4861
Polk: R+23042
Pasco: R+37795
Hernando: R+20067
Citrus: R+15465
Sumter: R+8970
Marion: R+19580
Lake: R+13506
Flagler: R+8062
Volusia: R+31174
Brevard: R+25862

Overall: R+232023

On election night 2016, this strategist was reviewing the initial returns shortly after polls closed in the Eastern Time Zone at 7 pm, and although he was initially optimistic at the results from Democratic base regions (South Beach and urban counties of the Orlando/Tampa areas), once he reviewed the results from the suburban/exurban counties in the I-4 vicinity, he realized by about 7:45 pm that Trump was on track to win Florida, since at that point Hillary's lead wasn't large enough to overcome the expected margins in the Central Time Zone counties.

Sounds like Steve Schale
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Chaddyr23
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 479
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2018, 12:37:06 PM »

He had a massive surge in turnout in the panhandle, plus Obama barely won the state in 2012. Florida is also a point or so to the right of the nation.

I don't think northern FL was decisive, since Trump's net margin in the counties along I-10 was only about 37K more than that of Romney, including only about 18K more in the five westernmost counties, both of which are far less than his 113K statewide margin of victory. Instead, in the suburban/exurban counties surrounding I-4, Trump's margins were about 230K more than Romney's, which is more than double his actual margin of victory statewide.

Yes, Citrus County, Flagler County, Volusia County, Lake County and Polk Counties did Clinton in.

So using the data from TML, it seems like the single largest contributing counties were the shift in the margins in Pinellas, Volusia, Pasco, and Brevard.
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