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October 21, 2019, 03:12:34 pm
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
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Poll
Question: Will Cruz win?
#1Cruz will win  
#2Cruz will lose  
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Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 3255 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2018, 01:02:19 pm »

I believe Cruz is ahead but by half that margin.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2018, 01:05:47 pm »

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2018, 01:06:41 pm »

I'm pretty sure this is an outlier poll, but we'll see what the others show ...
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2018, 01:16:48 pm »

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

Iím surprised heís 49/49 approved in TX.
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« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2018, 01:32:31 pm »

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

Historically, having a too loose LV screen has been much more of a danger in TX polls than having too tight of one. At least in the past, TX has.

Even in Presidential years, turnout is low, and since the TX Dem base includes lots of non-whites, turnout tends to get hurt more than elsewhere in midterms.

Could turnout increase? Yes, and I expect that it will, particularly when compared to 2014. But it is still a question of how much of an increase is really plausible.

Even if turnout increases in TX, overall it will still surely be lower than elsewhere, and not representative of registered voters, much less representative of the population as a whole.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2018, 01:42:23 pm »

My only hope right now is that Beto has the most money, and usually the candidate with the most money does win.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #31 on: September 18, 2018, 01:48:49 pm »

Republicans are coming home, just as I predicted. TN was and is a far better opportunity. Once we have certainty that the government will not shut down before the election, I'm moving TX back to Safe R.
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Never Biden
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« Reply #32 on: September 18, 2018, 01:52:36 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2018, 01:53:41 pm »

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.


A subdued version of the Arizona Senate race?


I'm just surprised it took until mid-September to get to this point
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« Reply #34 on: September 18, 2018, 01:59:52 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.
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« Reply #35 on: September 18, 2018, 02:18:59 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #36 on: September 18, 2018, 03:06:33 pm »

Cruz chances has increased
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #37 on: September 18, 2018, 03:08:51 pm »

Yeah, Cruz has this.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #38 on: September 18, 2018, 03:26:29 pm »

>One favorable poll for Cruz

"OMG CRUZ 100% HAS THIS. LOL DEMS BTFO. A DEM CAN NEVER WIN TX. TOLD YOU SO!"

Sometimes I hate this site.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #39 on: September 18, 2018, 03:33:08 pm »

>One favorable poll for Cruz

"OMG CRUZ 100% HAS THIS. LOL DEMS BTFO. A DEM CAN NEVER WIN TX. TOLD YOU SO!"

Sometimes I hate this site.

The margins range from Cruz+3 to Cruz+9. This is about the time where we should start to see some polls with Beto ahead (or at least tied) if he was going to win.
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« Reply #40 on: September 18, 2018, 03:59:40 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.
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UWS
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« Reply #41 on: September 18, 2018, 04:42:22 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #42 on: September 18, 2018, 04:45:40 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters
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UWS
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« Reply #43 on: September 18, 2018, 05:00:37 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters

Out of elderly voters, including those, like this 88-year old grandmother who suffered from some dementia while it could have actually been a request to send money to some kind of health care organization needing money to treat this instead of just fake summonses to deceive voters for electoral campaign money?

Lose Cruz.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #44 on: September 18, 2018, 05:05:37 pm »

Anyone who previously said O'Rourke was likely to win or who is now saying he has no chance to win should switch to decaf.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #45 on: September 18, 2018, 05:11:54 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.

Well it is similar to the Watergate in the sense that this move by Cruzís campaign was also for electoral purposes and it broke the rules.

Itís not illegal- itís something a lot of campaigns do to con money out of elderly voters

Out of elderly voters, including those, like this 88-year old grandmother who suffered from some dementia while it could have actually been a request to send money to some kind of health care organization needing money to treat this instead of just fake summonses to deceive voters for electoral campaign money?

Lose Cruz.

Iím not disagreeing that itís sh**tty- Iím just saying itís somethinh that candidates have been caught doing before, and itís something that wonít shift this race. Comparing it to Watergate is silly.
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« Reply #46 on: September 18, 2018, 05:16:15 pm »

Anyone who previously said O'Rourke was likely to win or who is now saying he has no chance to win should switch to decaf.

What if one is now saying O'Rourke has no chance to win but was also previously saying that he had no chance to win?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #47 on: September 18, 2018, 05:29:43 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #48 on: September 18, 2018, 05:45:35 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #49 on: September 18, 2018, 06:12:09 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though
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