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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
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Question: Will Cruz win?
#1Cruz will win  
#2Cruz will lose  
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Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 2874 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #75 on: October 09, 2018, 08:24:23 pm »

Beto is probably not gonna win

You can remove "probably" from that sentence.
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #76 on: October 11, 2018, 04:15:06 am »

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.

Are you from Texas? Serious question. Look at Abbott's numbers. The way things work in Texas is that everything is connected. Governor, Senate, etc are all drawing from the same pool. Texas is very, very, very good at GOTV as well as fighting tooth and nail.

I'm rolling through the Alabama GOP turnout figures. Moore wins with another percent turnout in his favor. Alabama also had their issues with the primary where Moore won, and the whole show around that.

In Texas, how it would have worked is that there wouldn't have been another candidate against Moore and he would have ran unopposed within the GOP. Once they decided that Moore was (and remains) a good fit for the state they would have run on that.

Yes, Texas has different challenges from Alabama, but it has competent state organization and very, very solid GOP organization. MS, and particularly AL just don't compare. They don't have the R history of Texas, nor do they have two former presidents and their organizations all in-state. You also have a large number of Dems flipped R, which AL and MS and GA seem to prefer.
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