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  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
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Question: Will Cruz win?
#1Cruz will win  
#2Cruz will lose  
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Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 2864 times)
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« on: September 18, 2018, 11:51:08 am »
« edited: September 18, 2018, 12:16:09 pm by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

Quote
Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers.

Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating.

O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 11:53:52 am »

I am disappointed because personally I would like Beto to win, but on the other hand LMAO at all those who were seriously thinking Beto can win.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 11:54:55 am »

Looks like TX isn't turning blue.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 11:55:11 am »

The BBQ attacks have worked!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2018, 11:57:42 am »

The BBQ attacks have worked!

The people have spoken: Hands off our BBQ!
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 11:58:59 am »

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 11:59:21 am »

Worse than I thought I guess the undecideds were Republicans breaking for Cruz.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2018, 11:59:40 am »

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 Roll Eyes
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2018, 12:00:49 pm »

Who would've thought that undecided voters in Texas will lean R?
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BBD
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2018, 12:01:09 pm »

How the hell does Cruz have above water approval after all his bootlicking and general oxygen thievery. Good ole Texas.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2018, 12:01:13 pm »

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

Good point.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2018, 12:01:31 pm »

This seems like an outlier, but you’d rather have outliers in the right direction rather than this.
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2018, 12:03:51 pm »

I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2018, 12:03:56 pm »

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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2018, 12:04:06 pm »

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 Roll Eyes

Zaybay is the Trump of poll commentators.  "I can't say for sure if this poll is using the 2014 LV screen; but if it is, and I've heard from very fine people that that might be the case, then that's just a HUGE mistake.  GARBAGE POLLS!"

geez, I was just posing a question. Its self-identified, BTW, so the result is most likely correct.

Edit: Also, Im pretty sure asking the voters who voted in 2014 as a screen is a bad idea in a Democratic wave year.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2018, 12:04:43 pm »

I will say that Republicans are behaving as if the race is closer than a 9-point lead for Cruz.
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BBD
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2018, 12:05:08 pm »

I will say that Republicans are behaving as if the race is closer than a 9-point lead for Cruz.

It's good to have a veil of caution in this environment.
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Mondale
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2018, 12:05:08 pm »

Beto is finished

Hes no match for masterdebator Cruz
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2018, 12:06:11 pm »

The one point for hope for Beto/Dems in this poll is that it has virtually no undecideds. There are 3rd party candidates on the ballot, and those will in reality get at least some votes. Also, by election day the undecideds could possibly break somewhat differently than ones who were apparently pushed in this poll and chose Cruz.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2018, 12:06:19 pm »

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2018, 12:07:46 pm »

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.

I agree with Yeah. This is one of, maybe the only, likely voter poll we have of the race, so this one has much more weight to it than the registered voter polls we have gotten.
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2018, 12:09:37 pm »

I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.

The difference between this and other polls is primarily that there are many fewer undecideds. Beto is at 45% in this, it is very hard (pretty much unprecedented in recent history except for 1 or 2 downballot races) for a Dem to get anything more than that in TX.
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2018, 12:25:17 pm »

I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.

The difference between this and other polls is primarily that there are many fewer undecideds. Beto is at 45% in this, it is very hard (pretty much unprecedented in recent history except for 1 or 2 downballot races) for a Dem to get anything more than that in TX.
true, but I still have doubts about this poll.
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2018, 12:28:41 pm »

Well, congrats, Impartial Spectator. The small number of undecideds in this poll is weird, but Cruz is undeniably favored, and I highly doubt he loses at this point.
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2018, 12:40:32 pm »

It remains favorable to the incumbent, however Cruz' chances are overrated in this poll.
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