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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45
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Question: Will Cruz win?
#1Cruz will win  
#2Cruz will lose  
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Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 3038 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #50 on: September 18, 2018, 06:51:41 pm »

I'm not particularly surprised. At best for O'Rourke, this race is lean R.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #51 on: September 18, 2018, 06:56:23 pm »
« Edited: September 18, 2018, 07:10:57 pm by SCNCmod »

Although I think Cruz is obvious ahead of Beto... I think it is much closer than this poll.

A few points to consider-

If you look on RealClearPolitics poll history- All 3 Quinnipiac polls give Cruz a larger lead than the other polls (taken around a similar time period)... so not sure if their list/ methods are slightly skewed towards Cruz voters?

Beto is closer in RV polls than he is in LV polls (if Beto has really been able to energize voters in Texas ... this election may be more closely represented by a RV poll).

Similar to above- if Beto has really energized a large number of young and new voters (by going to every part of the state, campaigning in overdrive, etc... these polls are much more likely to under sample younger & new voters and undersample cell phone only voters).

I think a 4 point race recent polls are more likely representative of the current state of the race.  And that Beto still has a very outside chance to eek out a win if there are turnout rates among young, new, and low propensity voters that are rates that only happen in the once-every-20-years type of time frame.

....not sure if this is expected or not- but I was a little surprised to see Beto only leading 54-45 among Hispanic voters (since he has supposedly had the most increase in energized voters along the border areas)?  Also- in the same poll Hispanics in the Governors race  Abbott:49  Valdez:45.

...Also- in the poll Cruz has approval and favorability/approval rating at least 4-5 point better than Coryn, Trump and Beto?  (seems like they may have fallen into a batch of Cruz voters... or Cruz voters were eager to answer the survey after "Texas Senate is close" news stories the past  week or two)?

Job approval ratings:
Cruz: 53-44 (favorability is 52-43)
Coryn: 49-36
Trump: 49-49

Beto (favorability is 43-42)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #52 on: September 18, 2018, 07:15:35 pm »

Yikes. Guess the LV screen ended up hitting Dems like a ton of bricks here. Considering it's Texas, I guess that's not surprising.
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« Reply #53 on: September 18, 2018, 07:22:41 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #54 on: September 18, 2018, 07:44:37 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #55 on: September 18, 2018, 07:46:37 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

Wow!   That is harsh.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #56 on: September 18, 2018, 07:46:47 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2018, 07:51:00 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.

TX also qualifies as "notoriously inelastic".

I'd concede, however, that Moore probably would have lost there too.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2018, 08:05:12 pm »

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.


If Ted Cruz was gop nominee in AL instead of Moore he would have won AL by at least 15-20 points
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The Mikado
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« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2018, 08:15:30 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2018, 08:46:21 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.

Houston area is where I'm at. However I went to college in East Texas, where it feels more like Alabama. 

As for my previous statement, we have a Attorney General candidate with criminal corruption charges and he's likely to win. If he were in any other state he'd be screwed. Which kind of brings to the idea that it will take a lot for some Republican to fall here.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #61 on: September 18, 2018, 09:42:02 pm »

I highly, highly doubt there's only 1% undecided in September.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2018, 12:35:31 am »

Well.... whew.

We now have a post Labor Day poll of LV's from Texas.... Awesome!!!

Still, we have items such as Texas being an extremely difficult state to poll in GE Years, let alone Non-Presidential Election Years....

Additionally we have "the Q" which honestly has a much more recent and less accurate polling history in Texas for a wide variety of reasons, despite relatively high quality polling in some other States of the Union.

Time to take a "chill pill", "hit the vape", and not get excessively celebratory nor depressed, depending upon one's partisan orientation and backgrounds....

This is a *reality check*, especially considering the history of flawed Texas polling when it comes to "adults of Texas",  "RVs of Texas", and "LVs of Texas"....

Still plenty of time on the clock here, and honestly although I tend to give Cruz a narrow nod in '18, still not convinced that this particular poll is actually representative of what will happen in November '18....

Let's wait for more post Labor Day polls from organizations with a better history of polling in Texas, which is an extremely complex mass of Metro Areas, Demographics, etc, before we all get on our "jump to conclusion mats"...

We are only at the start of the Fourth Quarter folks, in an extremely volatile Ball Game...

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« Reply #63 on: September 19, 2018, 12:45:06 am »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 12:50:51 am by SCNCmod »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #64 on: September 19, 2018, 01:37:26 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2018, 01:47:13 am »

Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2018, 04:18:33 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #67 on: September 19, 2018, 04:25:06 am »

Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.


No one in my honest opinion could beat Abbott, at one point his approval rating was 89%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #68 on: September 19, 2018, 04:50:05 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.

That's stupid. A law enforcement officer can't pick and choose which laws to enforce and which not.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #69 on: September 19, 2018, 04:56:13 am »

Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.

They really couldn't- it's extremely lazy to think that the Castro brothers would automatically inflate the Hispanic vote for Democrats
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #70 on: September 19, 2018, 05:41:48 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?
Valdez worked with ICE to deport illegal immigrants in her jails while claiming to be for them and she has been called out by this among young hispanics, might be one such reason.
Not true, https://www.texasobserver.org/lupe-valdezs-record-as-sheriff-spells-trouble-with-young-latinos/
That's stupid. A law enforcement officer can't pick and choose which laws to enforce and which not.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2018, 11:02:17 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.

The Hispanic crosstab is almost certainly junky - I doubt also that Cruz is doing as well as he is in this poll with Hispanics. Probably this relates to the fact that Quinnipiac is not particularly experienced with polling TX.

As for her being LGBT, most voters barely know who she is, if they have even heard of her at all. So I wouldn't think it hurts her that much. She did also easily win all the Hispanic areas in the primary by substantial margins.
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Mondale
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« Reply #72 on: October 08, 2018, 01:19:04 am »

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Amasing....Cruz got a Kavanugh energy bump before Kavanugh
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #73 on: October 08, 2018, 02:38:55 am »

Beto is probably not gonna win
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« Reply #74 on: October 08, 2018, 11:20:38 am »

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Amasing....Cruz got a Kavanugh energy bump before Kavanugh
This poll is old, but Cruz does have the edge.
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