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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker
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Author Topic: WI Marquette: Evers up 49-44 over Walker  (Read 2390 times)
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
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« on: September 18, 2018, 12:26:40 pm »
« edited: September 18, 2018, 12:35:23 pm by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

I am watching it from their livestream, seems like it is not uploaded yet on their website (now on twitter):



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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 12:27:38 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 12:28:17 pm »

Walker looking... not good lol.

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 12:28:59 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2018, 12:30:04 pm »

Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 12:33:25 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, theyíre usually the best in WI, so this really isnít a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but thatís being generous to him.
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 12:34:22 pm »

While it's possible that the polls are underestimating Walker, and he could still recover, I'm going to quote an article from 538 in 2014 about a different race (CO-SEN 2014), while changing a few of the words:

"Wisconsin polling is probably right. Walker is losing."

Change "Colorado" to "Wisconsin", "Udall" to "Walker", and a few other words, and that article works pretty well for this race.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2018, 12:35:28 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, theyíre usually the best in WI, so this really isnít a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but thatís being generous to him.

I think everyone is being generous to Walker due to his past victories, but that luck seems to be shrinking by the day in the middle of the blue wave.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2018, 12:36:36 pm »

Walker is getting murdered by the independents, losing 32-52.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2018, 12:36:48 pm »

This just shows how quickly things can change in a wave environment. That's why I think some people should stop doing post mortems for any Democrat who is a few points behind.
In a couple of weeks their situation might be very different.
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2018, 12:51:27 pm »

Marquette had Clinton+6 in the 2nd November 2016. Let's all remember. Second of all, this may be good news for the Dems, but the legislature won't flip if all the gains are concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane counties. This means that if Walker loses and wins a revenge 2022 matchup, we'll be back to a GOP trifecta in no time. Stay watchful, Wisconsin Dems. Don't get complacent and keep fighting.

Actually, Democrats have a reasonable shot at flipping the state Senate this year, especially considering that they've won 2 state Senate seats already that voted heavily for Trump.

Also, are you forgetting that a Governor Evers would prevent Republicans from drawing fresh gerrymanders in 2021 even if they still controlled the legislature? If Evers wins this time, Wisconsin's legislature will probably be up for grabs for most/all of the 2020s.
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2018, 12:59:47 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.
Basically this. He's unpopular, and Evers is a very good candidate.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2018, 02:27:05 pm »
« Edited: September 18, 2018, 02:36:13 pm by Wisconsinite »

Frankly, I'm shocked MU has him leading. Let's hope Evers continues to lead like this for the next 49 days until the election!

Tilt-D until another poll shows them either tied or Walker leading.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2018, 02:36:30 pm »

I thought he would retire.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2018, 03:05:32 pm »

Walker will lose
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2018, 03:13:46 pm »

Yeah, lol @ anyone who still thinks Walker is favored. BUT MUH 3 ELECTIONS IN 4 YEARS!!
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2018, 03:25:16 pm »

Walker's only hope is probably that all the polls are underestimating Republican strength again like in 2014/2016.

The Marquette poll was fine in 2014.

Yeah, theyíre usually the best in WI, so this really isnít a good sign for Walker, to say the least. Keeping it at Tossup for now, but thatís being generous to him.

I think everyone is being generous to Walker due to his past victories, but that luck seems to be shrinking by the day in the middle of the blue wave.

I think people keep forgetting that Walker was elected narrowly twice in huge Republican wave years oh, and once in a recall election which by its very nature he was favored. Anyone failing to take that into account and the fact that it's 2018, is indeed going to overestimate Walker's chances here.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2018, 03:27:00 pm »

Wow, I actually agree with Badger here. I think this is Walker's most potentially vulnerable election, but never underestimate Walker in Wisconsin.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2018, 03:31:16 pm »

Marquette (and many other polls) indicated that Feingold was leading. Then, Election Day approached and we got the opposite result. So, no, I am not by any means underestimating Walker, even in the midst of a blue wave. He is the Ted Cruz of Wisconsin.

Heck, his strict voter ID law might send many Democrats back home like it did in 2016.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2018, 03:31:34 pm »

Walker hasn't lead in a single poll except for a Marquette University poll, no one is underestimating him, but Evers is favored
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2018, 03:42:02 pm »

I'm not kidding when I say this (and I wish I was), but I work at a company in Fitchburg (a Madison suburb) with a lot of liberals. I can name 3 or 4 people (who planned on voting for Hillary) who were sent back home due to the strict voter ID law. This is part of the reason why Hillary lost the electoral vote in WI in 2016 and why Feingold lost. The fact of the matter is that there are more registered Democrats in WI, and Walker knows this.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2018, 03:52:57 pm »

He thinks heís an fdr running for a fourth term lmao
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olowakandi
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2018, 04:00:07 pm »

He lost in the GOP primary for president, he isn't unbeatable and even Walker can lose😁
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uti2
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2018, 04:20:08 pm »

He lost in the GOP primary for president, he isn't unbeatable and even Walker can lose😁

TBF, Walker would've been unbeatable in the WI GOP primary.
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2018, 06:21:23 pm »

I'm surprised this thread doesn't have like 5 pages by now.
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