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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Are LA's Catholics the reason it is more willing to vote Dem then AL, MS, ect?
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Author Topic: Are LA's Catholics the reason it is more willing to vote Dem then AL, MS, ect?  (Read 3265 times)
DINGO Joe
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« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2018, 09:58:36 am »

As for the thread topic, it does appear that LA non-Cajun whites are very similar to those of MS and AL.

Why anyone must expect them be different?

Except in 1996 when Bubba won enough of them in Louisiana to win the North part of the state (and state as a whole) but not MS or AL

Probably - there are some parts of Alabama and Mississippi he won too. Just not so geographically distinctive. Plus - Shreveport, which is, IIRC, much less conservative now, then 50 years ago, when it was one of the centers of Goldwater-style conservatism even among Democratic officeholders.

Well, Shreveport is less conservative now than in the Goldwater era for the same reason Mississippi is less conservative--blacks get to vote now.  North Louisiana is slightly less black than Mississippi but more than Alabama, so again the question is why did Bubba win North Louisiana but not Mississippi?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2018, 10:15:41 am »

As for the thread topic, it does appear that LA non-Cajun whites are very similar to those of MS and AL.

Why anyone must expect them be different?

Except in 1996 when Bubba won enough of them in Louisiana to win the North part of the state (and state as a whole) but not MS or AL

Probably - there are some parts of Alabama and Mississippi he won too. Just not so geographically distinctive. Plus - Shreveport, which is, IIRC, much less conservative now, then 50 years ago, when it was one of the centers of Goldwater-style conservatism even among Democratic officeholders.

Well, Shreveport is less conservative now than in the Goldwater era for the same reason Mississippi is less conservative--blacks get to vote now.  North Louisiana is slightly less black than Mississippi but more than Alabama, so again the question is why did Bubba win North Louisiana but not Mississippi?

The only reasonable answer - history. North Louisiana was Long country for a long time, hence - some traditition of rural populism among it's whites (more so, then in plantation Mississippi). Now it's almost completely disappeared: whites vote .. as "whites" (Republican), blacks - as "blacks" (Democratic). Bigger polarization of vote by race then in mid 1990th.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2018, 02:30:50 pm »

As for the thread topic, it does appear that LA non-Cajun whites are very similar to those of MS and AL.

Why anyone must expect them be different?

Except in 1996 when Bubba won enough of them in Louisiana to win the North part of the state (and state as a whole) but not MS or AL

Probably - there are some parts of Alabama and Mississippi he won too. Just not so geographically distinctive. Plus - Shreveport, which is, IIRC, much less conservative now, then 50 years ago, when it was one of the centers of Goldwater-style conservatism even among Democratic officeholders.

Well, Shreveport is less conservative now than in the Goldwater era for the same reason Mississippi is less conservative--blacks get to vote now.  North Louisiana is slightly less black than Mississippi but more than Alabama, so again the question is why did Bubba win North Louisiana but not Mississippi?

The only reasonable answer - history. North Louisiana was Long country for a long time, hence - some traditition of rural populism among it's whites (more so, then in plantation Mississippi). Now it's almost completely disappeared: whites vote .. as "whites" (Republican), blacks - as "blacks" (Democratic). Bigger polarization of vote by race then in mid 1990th.

This sounds right
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warm istanbul
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2018, 08:19:48 pm »

As for the thread topic, it does appear that LA non-Cajun whites are very similar to those of MS and AL.

Why anyone must expect them be different?

Except in 1996 when Bubba won enough of them in Louisiana to win the North part of the state (and state as a whole) but not MS or AL

Probably - there are some parts of Alabama and Mississippi he won too. Just not so geographically distinctive. Plus - Shreveport, which is, IIRC, much less conservative now, then 50 years ago, when it was one of the centers of Goldwater-style conservatism even among Democratic officeholders.

Well, Shreveport is less conservative now than in the Goldwater era for the same reason Mississippi is less conservative--blacks get to vote now.  North Louisiana is slightly less black than Mississippi but more than Alabama, so again the question is why did Bubba win North Louisiana but not Mississippi?

The only reasonable answer - history. North Louisiana was Long country for a long time, hence - some traditition of rural populism among it's whites (more so, then in plantation Mississippi). Now it's almost completely disappeared: whites vote .. as "whites" (Republican), blacks - as "blacks" (Democratic). Bigger polarization of vote by race then in mid 1990th.

Slight nit pick, MS whites are not nor have they ever been "plantation" people for the most part. The MS whites who gave Trump 90% of the vote in the state are pretty much rednecks except a select few.

Generally speaking, white people began voting deep red in LA later than in AL or MS though. In 2004 some 25% or so voted for Kerry (less than 20% did in the others). It was really in 2008 that the change started to occur, when all those formerly Dem cajuns realized that a man of color was running for president.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2018, 11:25:27 pm »

As for the thread topic, it does appear that LA non-Cajun whites are very similar to those of MS and AL.

Why anyone must expect them be different?

Except in 1996 when Bubba won enough of them in Louisiana to win the North part of the state (and state as a whole) but not MS or AL

Probably - there are some parts of Alabama and Mississippi he won too. Just not so geographically distinctive. Plus - Shreveport, which is, IIRC, much less conservative now, then 50 years ago, when it was one of the centers of Goldwater-style conservatism even among Democratic officeholders.

Well, Shreveport is less conservative now than in the Goldwater era for the same reason Mississippi is less conservative--blacks get to vote now.  North Louisiana is slightly less black than Mississippi but more than Alabama, so again the question is why did Bubba win North Louisiana but not Mississippi?

The only reasonable answer - history. North Louisiana was Long country for a long time, hence - some traditition of rural populism among it's whites (more so, then in plantation Mississippi). Now it's almost completely disappeared: whites vote .. as "whites" (Republican), blacks - as "blacks" (Democratic). Bigger polarization of vote by race then in mid 1990th.

Slight nit pick, MS whites are not nor have they ever been "plantation" people for the most part. The MS whites who gave Trump 90% of the vote in the state are pretty much rednecks except a select few.

Generally speaking, white people began voting deep red in LA later than in AL or MS though. In 2004 some 25% or so voted for Kerry (less than 20% did in the others). It was really in 2008 that the change started to occur, when all those formerly Dem cajuns realized that a man of color was running for president.

No objections. I always stressed this moment and this reason too.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2018, 10:12:46 am »

Rural areas of LA are pretty similar to most of AL and MS.

The difference is New Orleans.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2018, 03:40:24 am »

Rural areas of LA are pretty similar to most of AL and MS.

The difference is New Orleans.

Right now - yes. But - look for 1964 election results. Mississippi, rural NORTH Louisiana and Alabama - all for Goldwater, Acadiana and vicinity (no less rural) - for Johnson. This difference persisted for many years.
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