TN-SSRS: Bredesen +5

[ON Progressive]

Put it right in my veins

[Torrain]

Put it right in my veins

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder if the Kavanaugh controversy may help GOPers on the fence come home.

[Politician]

I wonder if the Kavanaugh controversy may help GOPers on the fence come home.

What happened to "This is Safe R, Evan Bayh says hi"?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh wow, he might actually win this. Still not betting on it, but who knows.

[adrac]

Put it right in my veins

[😥]

I think it's fair to call this Tilt D.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But atlas told me Bredesen was going to only decline and that he would be the next Evan Bayh?

[wbrocks67]

At the end of the day, Bredesen is very liked, and his favorables are still sky high while Blackburn's are... not. And there is less than 50 days now. No way that Blackburn/GOP can kill his favorables now. I think people are underestimating how well liked he is. Partisanship certainly goes a long way, but in a Dem-favorable year with someone like Bredesen who has like +20, +30 favorables... I'd rather be him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Back to tossup, I see. I'll ready my lean R rating for the next time that Blackburn is ahead.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by SSRS on 2018-09-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[NOVA Green]

So, I won't go into this in as much detail as Arizona, but there are certain similarities:

1.) Health Care is the major priority of both LV (29%) and RV (27%) in Tennessee.

2,) Bredesen is leading (49-48 D) among voters 65+   and (55-42 D) voters 50-64.

3.) Trump's approval ratings in TN are better than AZ among both RV and LVs (46-46), but Blackburn voted to overturn the Affordable Care Act and Bredesen support the ACA, and his local roots as former Governor give him some street cred among many voters that might otherwise vote 'Pub for Senate (Even a cray-cray) against a weaker Democrat without the Gravitas of Bredesen.

4.) Similar to the CNN AZ poll earlier, voters 50k+ are split, although in the case of TN voters <50k are much more heavily Democratic.

It appears that we might have something interesting in both the Senate races in AZ and TN, in that both College Educated, "Upper Middle-Class" (Anglo) voters are continuing their swing towards a DEM candidate at a Federal Level (US PRES '16), combined with a dramatic swing among Anglo "WWC Voters".

I have always had a problem with the conventional media definition of "WWC voters" as well as much of Atlas on this point. Reality is that "WWC Voters" are frequently older retired voters long outside of the work-force, and simply using "race", "education", and "income" as a catchall, neglects the "age" factor, where inherently older voters tend to be "Whiter", "less college educated", and "lower income" (Living on Fixed incomes kinda does that.... ).

5.) Any way you look at again we're starting to see some real LV screens that show logical and reasonable models as to the *WHY* we might well be looking at a massive swing even in an off-year election, where many traditional base Democratic Voters tend to turn out in much lower numbers....

[auburntiger]

Just for reference, I took a look at the 2006 polls for this race last time there was a Dem wave year....similar matchups with similar approval ratings. As late as 10/1/06 there were two polls showing Dems +5 at 50/45; this is shaping up to be just like it. Since then, the state has gotten twice as red

Blackburn wins by 2% at the end