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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  CA Reuters/Ipsos: Newsom +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA Reuters/Ipsos: Newsom +12  (Read 522 times)
Dukakisite1988
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Posts: 114


« on: September 20, 2018, 07:32:18 am »

Why are so many California polls trashy? And I mean in all previous cycles, like in 2010 when some thought Whitman has a chance to beat Brown? There is no way Newsom will be anywhere near 52%. He'll beat the right-wing Illinois Businessman by 30 points or so.
No one thinks Cox is going to seriously challenge Newsom, but the level of denial is kind of silly in posts like these.

Even Trump managed like 35% in California, and there's every reason to think that a generic R should still win about 40% of the vote there in a two-way race. Newsom isn't a popular incumbent and doesn't have a ton of appeal to the Orange county suburbanites that gave Clinton such a massive win (not that he remotely needs them).

It really doesn't matter at all how much he wins by either, which is why it's kind of puzzling how upset people are that he will probably only win by ~15 or a little more instead of 30 lol

The 2016 Trump vote is somewhere around the GOP floor in California, with the 2004 Bush vote perhaps being the ceiling. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Cox achieve something in the low 40s.
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