How do we respond if Trump loses Texas?

[pbrower2a]

I start this thread in response to people suggesting that President Trump wins what seem unlikely states. Well, I can join the game, too. Texas went by only 9% for Donald Trump, and polling for other states that went by high single digits for Trump (Iowa and Ohio) look unlikely to vote for him in 2020.

Texas is obviously a Republican-leaning state, but it is not so much so as it was in 2008 or 2012. Even so, several states that Trump lost are more likely to go to the Democrat than to Trump. Counting the Second Congressional Districts of Nebraska and Maine for having independent electoral votes, I see states falling as such between 400 electoral vot4es for the Republican and for the Democrat:

403 WA 391
391 RI 387
387 NJ  373
373 CT  366
366 DE 363
364 OR 356
356 ME-01 355
355 NM 350
350 VA  337
337 CO 328
328 ME-AL 326
326 NV 320
320 MN  310
310 NH 306
306 MI 290
290 PA 270
270 WI 260
260 AZ 249
249 FL 220
220 NE-02 219
219 OH 201
201 IA 195
195 NC 180
180 GA 164
164 TX  128

Texas seems to straddle the zone of 400 electoral votes.

[Senator Incitatus]

We continue to lose our minds, spirit for civic society, and collective identity. There is no other way forward now.

[Grassroots]

Not gonna happen.

[UncleSam]

lol

If Trump loses Texas then he is losing in a mega landslide of at least 8-10 points and probably more. He is probably facing indictment and on the verge of impeachment / removal from office anyway. People will react with 'good to see he is finally gone', having seen it coming for quite a while at that point in time.

Texas is not remotely similar to an elastic state like Iowa, or even to a state like Ohio. Frankly, it is silly to think that any of those states are anything other than Trump-favored for 2020 at this point.

[Technocracy Timmy]

He must have tanked horribly with college and suburban white voters. Hispanic voters might have also showed up in larger than expected numbers and provided auxiliary support for Dems in TX.

Obama 2012 + NE-2/GA/NC/AZ. States like Alaska, South Carolina, and possibly Montana would be in play.

[pbrower2a]

Well, Texas is unique in being so large and straddling regions without being a region in itself. Trends in such states as Arizona and Georgia bode ill for Republicans in Texas, and we might see some changes in November of this year.   

In a 50-50 election the chance of Texas going for a Democrat is about the same as the chance that a Republican wins Washington or Illinois... if the orientation of electoral votes is random.

[Politician]

If Trump is losing Texas, he's getting blown out nationally, especially with college-educated whites. My guess:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

NUT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is more reasonable, even if Beto wins. If he wins Gov, in 2022, then Dems can win TX, in 2024 against Cotton, next generation GOP leader.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

[Progressive Pessimist]

More relief than a sip of Pepto Bismal after shotgunning an order of chicken wings marinated in three alarm spicy sauce.

Sorry, I'm very hungry as I write this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would have a great night should Trump lose period, after the theft of the SCrt vacancy

[The Mikado]

Pretty much the only way this happens is a very, very popular third party candidate splitting the GOP.

[Lord Admirale]

Democrats are carrying MI, PA, WI, NC, AZ, FL, OH, IA, GA, SC, ME-02, NE-02, at the very least.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just like the blue Gubernatorial map, as long as Dems win the 272 blue wall, other states like OH, AZ are winnable😁

[The Mikado]

Democrats are carrying MI, PA, WI, NC, AZ, FL, OH, IA, GA, SC, ME-02, NE-02, at the very least.

TX goes D before SC.

[Orser67]

If it's a two-candidate race, then the Dem would obviously be winning the overall election decisively. But I'm not sure that it would require a bigger victory than Obama's in 2008, and I'm not sure that that election fully qualifies as a "landslide." We do live in a time of fairly close elections, but one party winning by 7-10 points still isn't that outlandish.

[Torrain]

Contratulate President-Elect Harris and Vice-President-Elect O'Rourke, and go out for a celebratory drink