NJ Stockton: Hugin +10 in NJ-2

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://stockton.edu/news/2018/2nd-district-congressional-poll.html

Hugin 46
Menendez 36

Note of course that this is a 2016 Trump district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Horrendous, but still points to a Menendez win.

[Senator Incitatus]

As noted, this district was Trump +5, so this just strengthens what we believe already – Menendez has around a mid- to high-single-digit lead.

Also, kind of surprised Siena isn't asking about Senate in NJ-07. (I think they chose to ask the Kavanaugh question instead.)

[john cage bubblegum]

Uniform swing from Clinton-Trump margin (which of course is dicey) would indicate a 9 point Menendez lead.  That's approximately how this race feels - about a 10 point Menendez win, which is quite underwhelming given the state and national environment.

[BudgieForce]

Menendez isnt in any real danger. The worry is him dragging any of the congressional candidates down. I'm thankful this poll refutes that.

[wesmoorenerd]

Menendez isnt in any real danger. The worry is him dragging any of the congressional candidates down. I'm thankful this poll refutes that.

Something tells me Van Drew is likelier to hold his own against Menendez' negative influence than Kim, Malinowski, or Sherrill, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Uniform swing from Clinton-Trump margin (which of course is dicey) would indicate a 9 point Menendez lead.  That's approximately how this race feels - about a 10 point Menendez win, which is quite underwhelming given the state and national environment.

Basically 2006 all over again.

[IceSpear]

Menendez isnt in any real danger. The worry is him dragging any of the congressional candidates down. I'm thankful this poll refutes that.

[BudgieForce]

Menendez isnt in any real danger. The worry is him dragging any of the congressional candidates down. I'm thankful this poll refutes that.

Something tells me Van Drew is likelier to hold his own against Menendez' negative influence than Kim, Malinowski, or Sherrill, though.

Why you gotta take it straight to negativity? /s

[Senator Incitatus]

Uniform swing from Clinton-Trump margin (which of course is dicey) would indicate a 9 point Menendez lead.  That's approximately how this race feels - about a 10 point Menendez win, which is quite underwhelming given the state and national environment.

Basically 2006 all over again.

But there's a big catch with this comparison (and comparisons to 2012 as well). Uniform swing analysis doesn't account for the regional differences in each race. While some of that is overall realignment within the state, Hugin profiles as a much better candidate for the suburban set than Trump. His potential winning coalition looks much closer to Kean's than Trump's was, which means he doesn't have to win this district by as as much as Trump would have had to.

Some estimation on my part shows the district as roughly Kean +9 in 2006.
In 2008, under current boundaries, the district was McCain +7.8.
In 2012, the district was Kyrillos +8.17 and Romney +9.64.
In 2013, it was Christie +9.72 and Lonegan +18.29.
In 2014, it was Bell +16.37.
In 2016, Trump +19.1.

In other words, if the state is in pre-2014 alignment, up 10 is exactly where Hugin needs to be to win narrowly. If it's more like recent results show, he is still trailing by a wide single-digit margin. I'd imagine it's somewhere in between. Hugin profiles as a more serious Christie/Kean statewide contender than Bell or Lonegan ever were, but the environment has undoubtedly shifted.

Again, I really wish that Siena had polled on this race in NJ-07. Then we'd know how much of this is a statewide swing and how much is regional realignment.

[Senator Incitatus]

Also, Menendez reacts to the poll at around the 3:50 mark here:

https://www.njtvonline.org/news/video/menendez-gop-challenger-hugin-running-deceptive-campaign/

He calls the district "very conservative" and cites Booker's results.

[BudgieForce]

In 2008 Obama won this district by 8 and won the the state by 16 points. Hillary lost this district by 5 and won the state by 14. So I think Menendez has a point by bringing up Bookers double digit loss in the district and double digit win statewide.

Thank you for the numbers @AMB1996

[cvparty]

In 2008 Obama won this district by 8 and won the the state by 16 points. Hillary lost this district by 5 and won the state by 14. So I think Menendez has a point by bringing up Bookers double digit loss in the district and double digit win statewide.

Thank you for the numbers @AMB1996

ya but we don't necessarily know how this translates statewide, i would honestly be at least a little worried if i were bob

[BudgieForce]

Putting my unskewing glasses on, I do think Stockton oversampled whites and undersampled Blacks, Asians and Hispanics.

 https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/polling-results-2018.html

But it's a congressional race poll so MoE will be high.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Also, Menendez reacts to the poll at around the 3:50 mark here:

https://www.njtvonline.org/news/video/menendez-gop-challenger-hugin-running-deceptive-campaign/

He calls the district "very conservative" and cites Booker's results.

That's the first time I have even seen any indication that Menendez even cares about this race.