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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3
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Author Topic: TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3  (Read 2577 times)
Castro
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« on: September 20, 2018, 05:15:25 pm »

Ted Cruz - 48%
Beto O'Rourke - 45%

Trump approval: 47-50

Quote
The poll was conducted September 19th and 20th among 613 Texas registered voters. The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4 percent.

PPP survey commissioned by Protect Our Care.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Texas-Protect-Our-Care-Sept-18-2-Results.pdf
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 05:19:03 pm »

Finally a poll that isn't garbage in Texas!
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 05:20:48 pm »

if Ipsos wasn't accurate in TX, then Scott winning in FL isn't accurate either
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 05:22:44 pm »

This is about right, although I gotta point out Cruz is within the MOE. Tilt R closer to lean than pure tossup.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2018, 05:24:02 pm »

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 05:26:25 pm »

This is about right, although I gotta point out Cruz is within the MOE. Tilt R closer to lean than pure tossup.


I wouldn't count my chickens before they Hatch, Beto has come out attacking Cruz, this is a PPP poll but there is a blue wave coming, I still think Beto can win
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2018, 05:28:12 pm »

Lean R. Cruz is still favored, but the days of Titanium R Texas are over. Sad
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2018, 05:34:55 pm »

Finally a poll that isn't garbage in Texas!

This should be treated as a Dem internal - if it had a bad result for Beto, we have no way to know that it would be released. Yes, throw it in the pile, but the Quinnipiac poll with Cruz +9 is the highest quality recent poll.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2018, 05:35:28 pm »

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 05:43:20 pm »

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 05:43:32 pm »

The best thing about this poll is it has Cruz leading among whites only 61-34. If that is not too far off, that is about what Beto would need to be in serious business.

I'm skeptical though. In particular...

Too bad there is no education crosstab. Since they didn't ask education, I guess they didn't weight by education? If so they may have oversampled educated voters who are more likely to respond to polls.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 05:47:53 pm »

The best thing about this poll is it has Cruz leading among whites only 61-34. If that is not too far off, that is about what Beto would need to be in serious business.

I'm skeptical though. In particular...

Too bad there is no education crosstab. Since they didn't ask education, I guess they didn't weight by education? If so they may have oversampled educated voters who are more likely to respond to polls.

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2018, 05:50:47 pm »

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2018, 05:51:31 pm »

Beautiful poll! I imagine this is roughly where the race sits right now, give or take a point or two in either direction.
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OneJ
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2018, 05:52:54 pm »

Lean R. Cruz is still favored, but the days of Titanium R Texas are over. Sad
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2018, 05:56:26 pm »

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2018, 06:03:13 pm »

Lean R. Cruz is still favored, but the days of Titanium R Texas are over. Smiley
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 06:41:17 pm »

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 07:59:37 pm »

Now that looks believable (though probably a tad D-leaning because PPP)
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 08:01:34 pm »

I think Beto upsets Cruz
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2018, 08:06:52 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2018, 08:08:49 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2018, 08:11:59 pm »

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.

This is a reasonable expectation and I share it, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea not to poll education at all.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2018, 08:47:00 pm »

Dems are pouring money into TX
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2018, 09:54:50 pm »

Lean R. Cruz is still favored, but the days of Titanium R Texas are over. Sad


If Cornyn was up instead of Cruz , he easily would have won this race. Sure it would be closer than his usual wins but he still easily wins.


Cruz literally is one of the most unlikable senator in the country so in this type of year itís not surprising itís close .
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