TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3

[Sir Mohamed]

The clear difference between this and Quinnepac isn’t Beto; it’s Cruz.  Beto is stuck at 45% in both, which is believable.  Cruz’s numbers are the ones that fluctuate.  When a high-quality poll shows Beto breaking past the 45% barrier, then we know we have a toss-up race.  Until then, lean R seems right.

In the end, it's coming down to turnout. Beto has a chance of turnout is high enough. Cruz, at this point, is still favored though.