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| | |-+  From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage
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Author Topic: From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage  (Read 10536 times)
Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« on: September 20, 2018, 05:21:29 pm »

OK, I am going to try my hand at writing one of these timelines.

My main goal is a plausible and realistic story (insofar as this is possible for a hypothetical), with a combination of setbacks and victories for everyone, with a little bit of light humor here and there. That doesn't mean being "fair and balanced" just for the sake of it, but I mean to convey that this is not going to be a timeline in which either Democrats or Republicans get a huge unchecked landslide, get everything they want, everyone loves it, and everyone rides away into the sunset.

Although I have some rough ideas, I do not have any sort of preset plan as to what exactly will happen, who will win what elections, who in particular will be elected as the next President (or in what year exactly that happens) and what outside events will occur and have a significant impact on politics. Any input from readers about plausibility will be taken into account as we go along.

Our story will begin on the morning of November 6, 2018 (election day), and then we will have detailed election night coverage of results as they come in.

It will take a while to get through election day, so after we are done with that, I will probably go back and fill in some detail on what happened between now (late Sept 2018) and election day. Hopefully by the time we get to that, what happens in reality will have filled in some important details, such as what happens with the Kavanaugh confirmation fight, and perhaps some more developments that might shed light on where the Mueller investigation is going.

Then we'll start moving through into 2019 and eventually start up the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.






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I had a few people interested in how I was generating these election results (for potentially using something similar their own timelines or whatever else) sending me PMs about it. So, for anyone who is interested and wants to try it out, I basic version which takes out anything that will directly (or even indirectly, very much) reveal what the results are likely to be for the rest of this timeline. I will also add this in the 1st post of this thread.

Quote
I uploaded it here (15 MB zip file with excel spreadsheet):

http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=31053891767544047756

Warning/disclaimer - I did NOT make this with the intention of anyone else using it other than me, with the intention of it being user friendly or easy to understand, or with the intention of it being anything more than a one-off thing for me to use in my timeline (and only, in particular, for the 2018 midterms, not for other elections). I set up a very slightly modified version of the spreadsheet which makes it slightly more generic than what I am using own, mainly so that the results in my own timeline are not too easily predictable based off of this (to preserve surprise for readers).

BASIC instructions for how to use, how it works -

1) Open the spreadsheet to the "settings" tab.

2) You can then change the settings/parameters for the "Base Swing Size" and the "Base Turnout Increase from 2014" (in light blue cells). These both start at default values of 10%, which you can change to produce different results. The turnout increase setting corresponds to an (average) percent increase in turnout from 2014, so for example "10%" means an (average) 10% increase in turnout. The "base swing size", however, does NOT directly correspond to any particular "uniform swing" in the House popular vote, so you will have to try out values for this and see how it corresponds to the popular vote.

3) The two settings in light blue cells are then fed through to the "Basic House Calculations" sheet, to the 2 cells in the top rows which are also colored blue. I am not going to attempt to explain how exactly all these calculations work - it is too complicated and not organized to try to explain - but if you want to change the (average) results for any particular race, you can edit the base vote totals (basically 2014 House popular vote, with some adjustments in a few cases) which is locaated in columns B through E.

4) Next is the "Basic Sen & Gov Calculations" sheet. The House popular vote in each state is summed up in columns B through E here for each state, and that is used as a starting point for Senate/Gov results. Of course, the Senate/Gov results will differ somewhat from the House Popular vote, and you can change how they differ in Column M (colored light blue). Just change the value in this column - increase it higher than 1 to make the (average) result in the relevant Senate/Gov race be more Democratic than the House Popular vote, and decrease it below 1 to get more strongly Republican results. Senate/Gov exit polls are also calculated in this sheet (over all the way to the right).

5) Next, the "Results every 10 min Calcs" sheet takes the results calculated in the other 2 basic calculations sheets and does the calculations for the results to come in every 10 minutes. It also calculates exit polls for the House races (all the way over on the left, columns D through K). The results for the 1st 10 minutes are in column BN, and then it goes on in time as you go over further to the right.

6) Next, the "readout" sheet takes the calculations in the "Results every 10 min Calcs" sheet and organizes them into a format where I can simply copy/paste the results into a post for my timeline. Time goes forward as you go from left to right along columns.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 05:44:45 pm by Cruz Will Win 👁 »Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 05:23:53 pm »

THE BEGINNING...

The morning of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, Leesburg, Virginia



It was raining in Northern Virginia.

Jared S., a low level Republican White House staffer who worked in communications, jumped across a puddle that had collected at the entrance to the driveway of 203 Maplewood. Thud - he landed partly in the water, and suddenly his shoes were soaked even more than they already were.

He was knocking on doors for Barbara Comstock. He wished he had taken that bus to Richmond to help in VA-05 instead. At least it wasn't raining in Richmond, and Dave Brat, as much has Jared disliked him, at least had a better chance to win. He didn't really believe, in his heart of hearts, that Comstock would win. But oh well, someone had to fight the good fight. And who knows - in 2016 he didn't really think that Trump would win either! And maybe this rain, as horrible as it was for him, would also depress Democratic turnout.

15 seconds after Jared's finger hit the doorbell, 43 year old Margaret W, a white college-educated suburban mother of 3, answered the door and saw Jared's Comstock T-shirt. "Comstock, huh? She's the Republican, right?," she asked. Jared started to respond, "Yes Ma'am. I'm Jared, I..." But Margaret interrupted him before he could finish his sentence: "I ****ing hate Trump's guts. I already voted first thing this morning for Wexler. Go away and never come back!!!" The door, wet from the rain, slammed and sprayed drops of water onto his face.

Jared sighed quietly to himself. His list was only supposed to have strong confirmed Republicans, but this was yet another angry woman voting for a Democrat, the fourth in the last 2 hours. Although he'd spent half an hour at the campaign office sifting through Comstock's opposition research on Wexler, he'd barely gotten to mention any of it to voters. So many voters wouldn't even listen to what he had to say. It seemed like this was a lost cause, and he was ready to go get some lunch. Anything for a break from this hellish rain.
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 06:43:50 pm »

THE BEGINNING...

The morning of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, Leesburg, Virginia



It was raining in Northern Virginia.

Jared S., a low level Republican White House staffer who worked in communications, jumped across a puddle that had collected at the entrance to the driveway of 203 Maplewood. Thud - he landed partly in the water, and suddenly his shoes were soaked even more than they already were.

He was knocking on doors for Barbara Comstock. He wished he had taken that bus to Richmond to help in VA-05 instead. At least it wasn't raining in Richmond, and Dave Brat, as much has Jared disliked him, at least had a better chance to win. He didn't really believe, in his heart of hearts, that Comstock would win. But oh well, someone had to fight the good fight. And who knows - in 2016 he didn't really think that Trump would win either! And maybe this rain, as horrible as it was for him, would also depress Democratic turnout.

15 seconds after Jared's finger hit the doorbell, 43 year old Margaret W, a white college-educated suburban mother of 3, answered the door and saw Jared's Comstock T-shirt. "Comstock, huh? She's the Republican, right?," she asked. Jared started to respond, "Yes Ma'am. I'm Jared, I..." But Margaret interrupted him before he could finish his sentence: "I ****ing hate Trump's guts. I already voted first thing this morning for Wexler. Go away and never come back!!!" The door, wet from the rain, slammed and sprayed drops of water onto his face.

Jared sighed quietly to himself. His list was only supposed to have strong confirmed Republicans, but this was yet another angry woman voting for a Democrat, the fourth in the last 2 hours. Although he'd spent half an hour at the campaign office sifting through Comstock's opposition research on Wexler, he'd barely gotten to mention any of it to voters. So many voters wouldn't even listen to what he had to say. It seemed like this was a lost cause, and he was ready to go get some lunch. Anything for a break from this hellish rain.
I feel bad for Jared even though he is fake
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Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 09:35:27 pm »

I feel bad for Jared even though he is fake

Things will turn around for Jared sooner or later. Probably not in terms of the election results in VA-10 in 2018, however Cheesy
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 11:45:13 am »

ELECTION DAY TURNOUT REPORTS



The afternoon of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, Orlando, Florida
ABC 13 local news

Reporter: "I'm here at Louis Armstrong Middle school in Orlando here, Charlie. I've just be talking to the polling place workers, and they are saying that turnout here is higher than they expected. This is a heavily African American precinct, and they have already had 200 more people voting than at this time in 2014. So that's probably good news for Andrew Gillum, who is really trying to turn up African American turnout."



The afternoon of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, Tallahassee, Florida
ABC 13 local news

Reporter: "I'm here at the Trinity Baptist Church in Tallahassee, Sarah. I've just be talking to the polling place workers, and they are saying that turnout here is lower than they expected. This is a heavily African American precinct, but they say turnout is no higher, and maybe even a bit lower, than at this time in 2014. So that's probably bad news for Andrew Gillum, who is really trying to turn up African American turnout."




The afternoon of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, Ottawa, Kansas
CNN

Wolf Blitzer: "And we're going to Kansas now, we have some turnout reports. Who is voting? Who is voting today?"

Reporter: "Hi Wolf. I'm here in Ottawa, Kansas, in the middle of the hotly contested 2nd Congressional District where Democrat Paul Davis and Republican Steve Watkins have been running a hard fought, very expensive race to fill this open seat left by retiring representative Lynn Jenkins. Now, I was talking 5 minutes ago with the local election administrator here in this heavily Conservative and Republican part of the district. He said that he has never seen turnout like this. Conservatives here are apparently really motivated to vote this year. Lots of excitement here with the Congressional race and the Governor's race. Despite this being a largely rural area, they have had people lining up out the door to vote in precincts across Franklin County. On the other hand, I was just in Chanute, which is in Neosho County, earlier, and the election administrators there were saying that turnout they have been seeing is nothing out of the ordinary so far, and they are not expecting an increase in turnout."

Wolf Blitzer: "Well, well, well. A mixed bag there, a mixed bag. I guess we'll just have to wait until the votes come in to hear what the voters will say. But wait, we will have exit polls soon, some preliminary results can be released in about an hour. Stay tuned on CNN."
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 11:48:15 am by Cruz Will Win 👁 »Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 12:00:46 pm »

LIVE LOOK AT THE US ELECTION ATLAS FORUM ELECTION DAY MEGATHREAD

The afternoon of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, on the internet

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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2018, 12:04:39 pm »

Interesting!
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Centrist Democrat from Oregon. Socially liberal, fiscally moderate. Frustrated with the rise of the far-left.

Endorsements:
OR-Gov: Knute Buehler (R)
Measure 105: Nay
Measure 106: Aye

Senate Races: All (D) candidates except for Mitt Romney (R-UT) and a non-endorsement in NJ

House Races: All (D) candidates, especially members of the Blue Dog Caucus

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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2018, 02:11:13 pm »

Very interesting....
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2018, 02:20:01 pm »

LIVE LOOK AT THE US ELECTION ATLAS FORUM ELECTION DAY MEGATHREAD

The afternoon of November 6, 2018: ELECTION DAY, on the internet



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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2018, 02:26:16 pm »

This is great!
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Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2018, 03:33:34 pm »

EARLY EXIT POLLS SOON...



November 6, 2018, 4:55 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM

Wolf Blitzer: "WELCOME TO THE SITUATION ROOM, and I'm WOLF BLITZER.

Wolf Blitzer: "I want you to focus only on the information I'm delivering, and never on the man delivering it. I’d prefer to be unnoticed, unconsidered: a bearded, bespectacled source of trustworthy news and nothing more. I don’t want you to know if I'm a Democrat or a Republican (I probably don’t even vote, or do I?). I only want you to know that I will report all sides of any story. Even my voice seems perfectly balanced: a little husky, a little nasal, not too high, not too low, not too fast, not too slow—always calm and collected. I'm so straight-laced and normal that, when you think about it, I actually seem quirky. New York magazine once called me “resolutely humorless.” I'm often invited to appear in movies and TV shows (and now, timelines). I always play myself, delivering the daily news—specifically cast to make a work of fiction feel more realistic and advance a storyline while not distracting viewers."

Wolf Blitzer: "Nevertheless, I am REPORTING FROM THE SITUATION ROOM, AND THIS IS A CNN EXCLUSIVE. It's election night in America. HYPE!!!"

Wolf Blitzer: "It's almost five o'clock eastern time and we're about to be able to release preliminary findings from our exit polls. We won't be able to tell you yet exactly who voters are voting for, that's embargoed still because millions of people are still voting and we respect the electoral process, but we will be able to look at some exit poll data on what issues were important to voters and how they are feeling today about President Trump, Mitch McConnell, and Nancy Pelosi, and also what they thought of the Kavanaugh hearings."

Wolf Blitzer: And we'll have our MVP John King at the magic wall to break it all down for us."



...

...

...

...

...

...

Wolf Blitzer: "But first, this commercial break."

Commercial Break: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSRieuzms24
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 10:50:24 am by Cruz Will Win 👁 »Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2018, 10:36:11 am »

EARLY EXIT POLLS

November 6, 2018, 5:00 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

Wolf Blitzer: "We’re now ready to release the first results from today’s exit polls of voters all around the country. Our Chief National Correspondent John King has been reviewing all the data. What are you seeing there, John?"



John King: "Wolf, we’ll give you a glimpse first of what’s on the minds of voters nationally as they go on the polls, and then we’ll zero in on some of the key early battleground races."

John King: "No surprise here. 50% of voters say the most important issue facing the country is the economy. Now a bit later when the polls start closing, we'll show you how these voters broke down. We can't do that right now because the polls are still open across the country. But 50% said the economy, that's issue number one, 25% said health care, 19% said immigration. So, personal economic issues dominating the electorate. Only 6%, Wolf, saying foreign policy is the most important country."

Quote
Which ONE of these four issues is the most important facing the country?

The economy: 50%
Health care: 25%
Immigration: 19%
Foreign policy: 6%

John King: "So, personal economic issues dominating the electorate. Only 6%, Wolf, saying foreign policy is the most important country."

John King: "Next, how do the voters feel about Donald Trump? 20% strongly approve of the job he is doing as President, 24% somewhat approve, 13% somewhat disapprove, and 42% strongly disapprove. So 43% approve, 57% disapprove."

Quote
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Strongly approve: 35%
Somewhat approve: 8%
Somewhat disapprove: 10%
Strongly disapprove: 47%

John King: "But also very favorability ratings for Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress. Very bad approval ratings for Nancy Pelosi. Only 31% have a favorable opinion of her, 59% unfavorable."

Quote
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi?

Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 59%
Don't Know: 10%

John King: "But look at this, Mitch McConnell, also with horrible favorable ratings. 27% favorable, but 58% unfavorable."

Quote
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell?

Favorable: 27%
Unfavorable: 58%
Don't Know: 10%

John King: "The voters don't like President Trump, Wolf. And they also don't like Congress. And they don't like either the Republican leaders or the Democratic leaders in Congress."

Wolf Blitzer: "Interesting, John, interesting. The voters are not happy with how things are going in the government. What about the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings? Those were some controversial, controversial hearings, John. And the Mueller investigation?"

John King: "Well, Wolf, you see an interesting split here. A clear majority, 61% approving of the Mueller investigation, but 39% disapprove."

Quote
Do you approve or disapprove of the Mueller investigation?

Approve: 61%
Disapprove: 39%

John King: "And exactly the opposite for how Congress handled the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. A clear majority, 61% disapproving of the Kavanaugh hearings, but 39% approve."

Quote
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress handled the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings to the Supreme Court?

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 61%

John King: "Now, at 6 o'clock, just a little under an hour from now, the polls will close in Kentucky and Indiana. And when they do, we'll be back at the magic wall to look at the exit polls and the results. We will have some key, key results from the Indiana Senate race and the 6th district in Kentucky. Those could. Democrats don't have other top targets for house seats in Kentucky and Indiana, but if they pick up or do well in any other seats, it could be a sign that they are having a good night. Or if Republicans can win the targeted Senate race and/or the Kentucky's 6th district, it could be a sign that Republicans are going to have a good night."

John King: "But for now we'll go to our panel for some meaningless drivel about the entirely unsurprising fact that most voters so far disapprove of Trump, McConnell, and Pelosi while we wait for polls to close so we can come back to the magic wall. Over to you, Wolf."



Wolf Blitzer: "Panel, the voters hate everyone. Are you surprised?"

Republican Talking Head: "Blah de blah blah blah."

Democratic Talking Heaad: "Blah da blee blee bleh."

"Independent" Talking Head: "Bloo doo blih blah bluh."

Republican Talking Head: "Blah de blah blah blah."

Democratic Talking Heaad: "Blah da blee blee bleh."
« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 11:58:30 am by Cruz Will Win 👁 »Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2018, 10:41:27 am »

I love this timeline and I love the insight of the panel Cheesy
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Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2018, 10:45:03 am »

I love this timeline and I love the insight of the panel Cheesy

Yup, that's what the panel is paid for. Cheesy
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2018, 10:50:50 am »

I love this timeline and I love the insight of the panel Cheesy

Yup, that's what the panel is paid for. Cheesy
I like it a lot.
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2018 NY Endorsements
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Lt Gov: Kathy Hochul ✓
AG: Letitia James ✓
US Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand ✓
Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2018, 11:23:54 am »

I love this timeline and I love the insight of the panel Cheesy

Yup, that's what the panel is paid for. Cheesy
I like it a lot.
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Centrist Democrat from Oregon. Socially liberal, fiscally moderate. Frustrated with the rise of the far-left.

Endorsements:
OR-Gov: Knute Buehler (R)
Measure 105: Nay
Measure 106: Aye

Senate Races: All (D) candidates except for Mitt Romney (R-UT) and a non-endorsement in NJ

House Races: All (D) candidates, especially members of the Blue Dog Caucus

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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2018, 12:59:53 pm »

PRESIDENT TRUMP ELECTION DAY CAMPAIGN RALLY



November 6, 2018, 5:27 PM EST: Billings, Montana
TRUMP - Rosendale rally

President Trump: "Make America great folks, make America great again!"

Crowd cheers

President Trump: "You know, why would anyone vote for John Tester? John Tester. The guy is kind of creepy. You know, he has been horrible in Congress. A huge disappointment. Never votes to get things done, always a pain to deal with. What was wrong with you people in Montana to elect this guy in the first place? You've got to get rid of him. Vote in Matt Rosendale instead. He'll be SO much better."

Crowd cheers

President Trump: "Tester treated Admiral Jackson so unfairly. So unfairly. Jon Tester’s statements on Admiral Jackson were not true. There were no such findings. A horrible thing that we have had live with, just like phony Russian Collusion. Tester should lose the race here in Montana. He's very dishonest and sick!"



Crowd cheers

President Trump: "He's so creepy and sick. He could probably be a child molester, who knows? What a sick guy. Many people have been saying that, they suspect it. We don't know for sure yet, but there should be an investigation. You can see it right in his name. Tester the Molester, right? If the Democrats want to investigate Russia, we should investigate this. They said Roy Moore was a molester. That wasn't true, that turned out not to be true when they investigated it. But maybe for Tester, it could be true. What a sick guy. The guy is worse than Bill Clinton. Why hasn't the FBI started an investigation yet? Where is the Justice Department? They're AWOL right now. You have to do something about it, vote the guy out."

Crowd cheers

President Trump: "Well, have you people voted yet? You know, you have got to go vote this guy out. If you are here at this rally and you didn't vote, and then sicko Tester the Molester wins, it will be all your fault. Your fault. And if I get impeached because of it by the phony Democrats Mueller investigation witch hunt, you did it. You did it. I have the best condominiums, you know."

...

...

...

...

CNN BREAKING NEWS ALERT

November 6, 2018, 5:29 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS



Wolf Blitzer: "I'm sorry panel, I have to interrupt. We have breaking news, over to Anderson Cooper."



Anderson Cooper: "President Trump at a rally in Montana has called Senator Jon Tester a Molester. We have absolutely no evidence to confirm this. We're going live to the rally."

CNN switches to live feed of TRUMP - Rosendale Election Day Rally

President Trump: .................... ybe for Tester, it could be true. What a sick guy. The guy is worse than Bill Clinton. Why hasn't the FBI started an investigation yet? Where is the Justice Department? They're AWOL right now. You have to do something about it, vote the guy out."

Crowd cheers

President Trump: "Well, have you people voted yet? You know, you have got to go vote this guy out. If you are here at this rally and you didn't vote, and then sicko Tester the Molester wins, it will be all your fault. Your fault. And if I get impeached because of it by the phony Democrats Mueller investigation witch hunt, you did it. You did it. I have the best condominiums, you know."

CNN cuts back to Anderson Cooper



Anderson Cooper: "We have absolutely no evidence of what President Trump just said. We have reporters following up with the White House Press Office to see if they have any information or any comment. Again, we are not aware of any evidence to support what President Trump just said."
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2018, 01:01:03 pm »

Hold on, what?
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2018, 01:03:44 pm »

Hold on, what?

It (probably) doesn't have any particular significance for the timeline. Just a latest-Trump-controversy interlude.
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2018, 01:24:04 pm »

CNN BREAKING NEWS ALERT

November 6, 2018, 5:38 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS



Wolf Blitzer: "And we have a statement from the White House Press Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Anderson."

Anderson Cooper: "The statement says:"

(Anderson Cooper reads the statement on air)

White House Statement:

Quote
President Trump did not mean to make any particular allegations about Senator Tester. He was just saying that with the Democrats pursuing all sorts of fake investigations like the Russia witch hunt investigation, maybe Republicans will eventually have to respond with the same sort of witch hunts. The failing New York Times and the rest of the media should get back to reporting on the election and stop focusing on distracting the American people by twisting President Trump's words.

Wolf Blitzer: "Over to our panel. What do you think about these developments? What impact will they have, if any, on the election?"



Republican Strategist: "You know, I think this is a shame. Why is the media latching on to these comments like that and misrepresenting them?"

Democratic Strategist: "These comments are utterly shameful, and have no place in our politics. President Trump should be ashamed of himself and apologize immediately to Senator Tester, and Matt Rosendale should denounce these comments. This is just another example of President Trump going off the rails, and shows why we need to elect Democrats to put a check and balance on Trump."

"Independent" Panelist: "President Trump likes to talk, and sometimes the wrong words come out of his mouth. But you know, we have seen this sort of thing before, and it never sticks. Most people have already voted by now, and people expect these sorts of controversies at this point. This is nothing new, and I doubt it will have much impact. And anyway, pretty soon we will start to get results from Indiana and Kentucky."
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2018, 01:32:13 pm »

LIVE LOOK AT THE ATLAS FORUM MONTANA SENATE MEGATHREAD

November 6, 2018, 5:43 PM EST: ELECTION DAY, on the internet

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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2018, 01:42:01 pm »

Question to readers -

I am trying to make this feel realistic, and at least my perception is that Trump often says crazy things. So my intention with this last part was just to capture that aspect of reality. Whether I captured that well or not, I don't know. In this particular case, I thought this has some similarity to the ways that Trump said that Bill Clinton was a rapist in the 2016 campaign, for example.

I don't intend for this to have any further substantive impact, just another daily controversy that will probably be forgotten in a few days (and certainly overshadowed by the election results) - of course, maybe it has an impact in Montana (or maybe not, like the Greg Gianforte incident).

Was this good, or would you prefer if I not try to simulate Trump craziness (perhaps influenced by my own biases)? I said at the beginning that I wanted to listen to any input from readers, so just let me know what you think about my general approach so far.

Likewise I intend to have periodic intervening events such as various disasters and random events of the sort that occur in reality. However, you shouldn't think that everything like that has a big impact on the timeline itself - my goal is just to make it feel realistic, similar to how in real life unexpected events, disasters, and developments will often occur.



We will, however, get to the election night results soon. I have a script I am working on that generates election results with partial reporting, so I will be posting result updates on something every 10-15 minutes (of election-night time, not of real time). It will take a bit more time to finish that, but once it is done it should be good.

The intention is to try to capture some of the uncertainty, tension, surprises, and excitement that you get on an actual election night.
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2018, 10:38:01 pm »

Great TL. Shame Beto will inevitably lose given who the author is, but looking forward to seeing the results regardless. Seems very well done and realistic!
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2018, 10:33:52 am »

Great TL. Shame Beto will inevitably lose given who the author is, but looking forward to seeing the results regardless. Seems very well done and realistic!

I'm actually using a probabilistic model to generate the election results. So while Cruz is favored, Beto does actually have a chance in this (and not just an entirely negligible one, either). This should make it more interesting - the results will be more unexpected that way. To make sure I am not tempted to re-run the simulation if I don't like the results, when I am running the simulation that I use I'll post here, and then I'll be mentally committed to using that particular simulation run.

Note - I have already run the simulation for House results, but the house is large/complicated enough that I did make some manual tweaks to it. But for the Senate and Governor's races, I think I can just do it purely randomly relying entirely on the model.

The other thing is that from the actual results, I also have randomly generated exit polls, which have both a systematic error component (i.e. all the exit polls could overstate Dems or all could overstate Reps), and also an idiosyncratic error component (an error just for that individual race). So we will have exit polls which will be reflective of the actual results, but biased/inaccurate to a random/varying degree. This way, part of the fun with looking at the results come in will be trying to figure out how much and in what way the exit polls are off.
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O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2018, 10:57:24 am »

Great TL. Shame Beto will inevitably lose given who the author is, but looking forward to seeing the results regardless. Seems very well done and realistic!

I'm actually using a probabilistic model to generate the election results. So while Cruz is favored, Beto does actually have a chance in this (and not just an entirely negligible one, either). This should make it more interesting - the results will be more unexpected that way. To make sure I am not tempted to re-run the simulation if I don't like the results, when I am running the simulation that I use I'll post here, and then I'll be mentally committed to using that particular simulation run.

Note - I have already run the simulation for House results, but the house is large/complicated enough that I did make some manual tweaks to it. But for the Senate and Governor's races, I think I can just do it purely randomly relying entirely on the model.

The other thing is that from the actual results, I also have randomly generated exit polls, which have both a systematic error component (i.e. all the exit polls could overstate Dems or all could overstate Reps), and also an idiosyncratic error component (an error just for that individual race). So we will have exit polls which will be reflective of the actual results, but biased/inaccurate to a random/varying degree. This way, part of the fun with looking at the results come in will be trying to figure out how much and in what way the exit polls are off.

What's the simulator?
And will you manually stop crazy things like Angus King or Tim Kaine losing?
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#BlueWave2018
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