From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:30 PM EST: 666 IS THE NUMBER OF INDIANA; NELSON SLIGHTLY AHEAD IN FLORIDA (CONTINUED)

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:30 PM EST: 666 IS THE NUMBER OF INDIANA; NELSON SLIGHTLY AHEAD IN FLORIDA (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 9 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 2 D --- 3 R

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[2016]

Looks like Nelson has pulled AHEAD again....a bit confusing when you say Scott is leading because

FL-SEN

D 3,289,932
R 3,243,241

That's a 46,691 Vote lead for Nelson.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Looks like Nelson has pulled AHEAD again....a bit confusing when you say Scott is leading because

FL-SEN

D 3,289,932
R 3,243,241

That's a 46,691 Vote lead for Nelson.

Oh, lol. I had it right in the text, but the title was mixed up. Fixed.

[libertpaulian]

Don't have Donnelly lose!

I don't want Braun as my Senator.

[OBD]

UGH CMON DONNELLY

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:40 PM EST: IN-SEN AND FL-GOV CALLED; FL-SEN TOO CLOSE TO CALL


Meanwhile on FOX News

November 6, 2018, 8:40 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

Wolf Blitzer: "We've got breaking news!"

...

Wolf Blitzer: "And we can now call the Indiana Senate race for Mike Braun. Republican Mike Braun the apparent winner in Indiana."

...

John King: "Indiana now 100% reporting, and Braun pulls ahead with a 49.6%-49.3% lead. What a close and exciting race that was, but the Republicans coming up just ahead in this one. And in Florida, it has also now gotten extremely close. More Republican precincts have been coming in, and we're now up to 95% reporting, with Bill Nelson, the Democratic incumbent, ahead only 49.2% to 49.1%. That's 3,389,278 votes to 3,380,818, just a difference of 8,460 votes now in Florida.

Anderson Cooper: "And we're going to go back to our panel to find out what the Republican victory in Indiana and the tight race in Florida means for the United States Senate."

Republican Strategist: "This is huge, just huge. Karl Rove is on FOX News - I know we aren't supposed to talk about that here on CNN, but he's tweeting it out - and he says that Republicans are telling him that their internal models are looking good for the Senate. Rove is claiming that Republicans could even win more Democratic seats in the Senate, and he's claiming that there's a 'red wave' going on in the Senate. He thinks Republicans could pick up, in addition to Indiana, also Florida and Missouri, hold Tennessee and Texas and at least one of Nevada and Arizona, and pickup at least one of North Dakota and Montana."

Democratic Strategist: "I don't know about that. Indiana was a really tough loss, but it is so close that there will probably be a recount. And as far as Karl Rove goes, maybe he should go talk to President Romney about his models, he might be interested... I mean Soon-to-be Senator Romney of Utah, that is... I'm hearing from Democrats that they are optimistic. They are telling me they think they are going to take the House back, and probably with more than just a bare majority. The Senate is admittedly tougher, especially after what we just saw in Indiana, but Joe Manchin is holding solid in West Virginia, Missouri is closing, and both Phil Bredesen and Beto O'Rourque are still ahead in Tennessee and Texas. That's with 55% reporting in Tennessee, and 37% in Texas. And I am hearing that there are still some more votes left to be counted in Florida from Broward County, I don't know how many though."

Anderson Cooper: "We'll be keeping a very close eye on Florida, and on the U.S. Senate. And what are you hearing from insiders about the Gubernatorial races?."

Democratic Strategist: "Well, in Georgia, I am hearing there are still votes left coming in from the Atlanta area, where Stacey Abrams is doing well. And in Ohio, Cleveland still has a large number of votes - that one is going to get closer for sure."

Wolf Blitzer: "Sorry to interrupt, but we just got enough votes in to call South Carolina for Republican Henry McMaster."

Republican Strategist: "Well, that's exactly the kind of night it has been so far in a lot of these races.

First we had KY-06... The Democrats started ahead... and Republicans came back to win it...

First we had Indiana Senate... The Democrats started ahead... and Republicans came back to win it...

First we had South Carolina Governor... The Democrats started ahead... and Republicans came back to win it...

I think we are going to see a better-than-expected night for the GOP. I think the Democrats will pick up some Governors mansions - how could they not, they have basically none. But I think Republicans are going to hold firm in a lot of places, especially where President Trump is popular."

Democratic Strategist: "We could pick up Georgia still. And even if we don't finish ahead, this race could easily go to a runoff and then we'll win that. Ohio, as I said, is going to close when Cleveland comes in. And right now, Ben Jealous is up in Maryland. That is a race that had been written off by many people, but Democratic turnout is strong and he's up. Gretchen Whitmer is winning just absurd landslide in Michigan - it is almost 30 points right now. Molly Kelly is up in New Hampshire, thanks to strong support from Women who are angry about the Kavanaugh hearings and the Trump administration. That is a race that just a month or two ago, most everyone thought would go GOP. And in Pennsylvania, it's also just an absurd landslide like in Michigan. And that's going to pay dividends downballot in both states in state legislative races. So to me it is looking like a pretty good night for Democrats."

....

Anderson Cooper: "And now let's go back to John King for an update on the House."

John King: "Well, overall Democrats are continuing to gain in the popular vote, and at this point have a clear majority 98 to 87 of seats that have been called so far."

John King: "In Florida, we've just called FL-06, that's Ron DeSantis' old seat, for the GOP. Republicans also still ahead in FL-15, FL-16, and FL-18, Democrats having hoped that maybe they could pick off at least one of those. Maria Elvira Salazar still up over Donna Shalala in FL-27, but that lead keeps shrinking. This should have been an easy win for Democrats, but Salazar is making it a very tough fight."

John King: "In Georgia, a little bit more from GA-06, GA-07, and GA-12, but no changes in the leads there. All these districts are getting close to 100% reporting, and should start being called soon."

John King: "In Virginia, we've called VA-02 for the Democrats, that's a pickup. And in VA-07, Democratic former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger has now narrowly overtaken Dave Brat by 1 point, after having trailed all night. 92% reporting there."

John King: "In WV-03, Richard Ojeda continues to hold a narrow 2 and a half point lead over Carol Miller, with 80% reporting."

John King: "In Alabama, a surprise. 52% reporting and the Democrats have a very narrow lead in AL-02. That probably won't hold up though, even Doug Jones lost there when he beat Roy Moore for Alabama's Senate seat."

John King: "We have some interesting races starting to develop in Illinois - IL-06 and IL-13 have Democratic leads of about 10% each right now. IL-14 is a Democratic landslide so far, surprising for that district. IL-12 is a narrow Republican lead. And IL-17, that is Cheri Bustos' seat that we mentioned earlier. The exit poll had that tied, but Bustos is up by almost 19 points in the actual votes so far, 54% reporting. Either that exit poll may have been off, or it is going to tighten."

John King: "In Maine's 2nd district, Democrat Jared Golden is getting hammered so far by Bruce Polquin, but only 16% in."

John King: "In Michigan, with Gretchen Whitmer running so strong at the top of the ticket, we have some potential Democratic gains. Republicans are only barely ahead in MI-02, MI-07, and up a bit more in MI-11. Democrats with narrow leads in MI-06 and MI-08. It will be interesting to see what, if any coattails Whitmer has here. About half the vote is reported in all these districts."

John King: "In Missouri, the only competitive race is MO-02 in the St. Louis suburbs, where Republican Ann Wagner is trying to hold on to her seat. Claire McCaskill is doing well here in the Senate race, and right now Wagner is behind by 10, with 44% reported."

John King: "In New Hampshire, Republicans lead in both NH-01 and NH-02. About 40% reported in New Hampshire."

John King: "Now Democrats are hoping to pick up a lot of seats in New Jersey. That starts with NJ-02, where Jeff Van Drew is up by 28 points so far. He has been considered a strong candidate. In NJ-03, Republican Tom MacArthur leads his challenger Andy Kim by 1 point. MacArthur has been controversial for the leading role he played in the House repeal of Obamacare. In NJ-05, John McCann --- that's McCann, not McCain, is down by 4 and a half points against Josh Gottheimer. And in NJ-07, Republican incumbent Leanord Lance is getting crushed by 17 points. so far. All these races are a bit under 50% reporting in New Jersey, however, so a lot can still change."

John King: "In Pennsylvania, another state where Gubernatorial coattails could have an impact. Democrats are in the mix for up to 6 pickups at the moment. That's PA-01, PA-05 (already called) PA-06, PA-07, PA-10, and PA-14. Democrat Conor Lamb, who won a special election last year, is also easily winning PA-17, as expected. Although maybe him being up 35 points with 46% reporting may have been quite a bit better than expected."

John King: "And in Texas, still tight races or Democratic leads in TX-02, TX-03, TX-06, TX-07, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25, TX-27, TX-31, and TX-32."

Wolf Blitzer: "That's 11 races in Texas. That is simply stunning. Republicans looking at those early returns in Texas have to be hitting the panic button."

John King: "Nothing short of flabbergasting. But other than TX-31, where MJ Hegar, another Democratic female veteran with a viral ad like Amy McGrath, is up by less than 1 with 51% reporting, all the other races in Texas are still less than 50% reporting. But with the early returns so good for Democrats, it is hard to see how they won't end up picking up at least several seats in Texas. If so, that's a stunning development that will push Texas Republicans on their back foot, with important implications for the 2020 Presidential race. Beto O'Rourke seems to be running strong in the suburbs of Texas, and may be putting the hurt on Republican House incumbents."

...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:40 PM EST: IN-SEN AND FL-GOV CALLED; FL-SEN TOO CLOSE TO CALL (CONTINUED)

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[/quote]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:40 PM EST: IN-SEN AND FL-GOV CALLED; FL-SEN TOO CLOSE TO CALL (CONTINUED)

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 3 D --- 4 R

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[/quote]

[Cold War Liberal]

GOVERNOR GILLUM!!!

Overall, though, this is shaping up to be a very lackluster, maybe even bad night for the Democrats.

[2016]

I agree with the Republican Strategist here. Republicans doing better then expected.

That Braun Senate WIN is huge because that essentially blocks the Democratic Path to a Senate Majority. I also think Karl Rove on FOX is right: Winning Indiana but losing Missouri, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota? Things do not work that way. IN-SEN may very well foreshadow what is going to happen in MO, TN, ND and MT.

FL-SEN is very close now. Where do the Final 5% come from? Are they from Scott or Nelson Territory?

In TN-SEN we will probably witnessing the same thing that happened in SC-GOV that as the Vote goes up Republican Marsha Blackburn will edge ahead. Only 55% in.

Moderate Governors like Phil Scott in Vermont & Charlie Baker in Massachusetts have been reelected.

The only bright Spot for Dems is that they won FL-GOV for the 1st Time since 1994.
80% in Ohio, the Question is? Are there 400K Votes left in Cuyahoga for Cordray to pull this off? Doubtful.

MD-GOV might be closer then expected. I still think Hogan is going to win.

As far as the House is concerned it could only be a bare minimum Majority for the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

I'm not seeing in the narrative where you have Gillum winning?

[OBD]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm not seeing in the narrative where you have Gillum winning?

You are right, I got so swept away in the Indiana race being called and the Karl Rove tangent that I forgot to mention it. I will throw in a reference to that in the next update.

GOVERNOR GILLUM!!!

Overall, though, this is shaping up to be a very lackluster, maybe even bad night for the Democrats.

I agree with the Republican Strategist here. Republicans doing better then expected.

That Braun Senate WIN is huge because that essentially blocks the Democratic Path to a Senate Majority. I also think Karl Rove on FOX is right: Winning Indiana but losing Missouri, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota? Things do not work that way. IN-SEN may very well foreshadow what is going to happen in MO, TN, ND and MT.

FL-SEN is very close now. Where do the Final 5% come from? Are they from Scott or Nelson Territory?

In TN-SEN we will probably witnessing the same thing that happened in SC-GOV that as the Vote goes up Republican Marsha Blackburn will edge ahead. Only 55% in.

Moderate Governors like Phil Scott in Vermont & Charlie Baker in Massachusetts have been reelected.

The only bright Spot for Dems is that they won FL-GOV for the 1st Time since 1994.
80% in Ohio, the Question is? Are there 400K Votes left in Cuyahoga for Cordray to pull this off? Doubtful.

MD-GOV might be closer then expected. I still think Hogan is going to win.

As far as the House is concerned it could only be a bare minimum Majority for the Democrats.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I'd like to respond to these, and wrote something out and then deleted it, because I probably should avoid being too specific to avoid possibly giving anything away.

But I would say that when trying to figure out where things are going, probably the best thing to do is to look at some combination of the exit polls and the results that are currently in. Both of those are (biased or potentially biased) measurements of the actual results.

Let's look back at the Senate exit polls.

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In IN-SEN, it is pretty clear that although Donnelly lost, he substantially overperformed exit polls. In the case of FL-SEN, the exit poll points to a Nelson victory, but with 95% in it seems pretty clear at this point that he is substantially underperforming that.

Despite the fact that VA-SEN and VT-SEN are not competitive, for purposes of comparing the results in and exit polls, those both have almost all the vote in, and in VA, Republicans are overperforming exit polls, while in VT Democrats are overperforming exit polls.

So, looking at for example the other big Senate races where we have results coming in, the best expectation of what is going to happen is probably some sort of weighted average of the actual results and the exit polls. So far we have:

FL: Dems up somewhat in exit polls, up narrowly in votes counted
MO: Reps up slightly in exit polls, up bigly in votes counted
TN: Dems up slightly in exit polls, up somewhat in votes counted
TX: Reps up somewhat in exit polls, down somewhat in votes counted

On the other hand, in SC-GOV, Dems were leading in BOTH the exit poll and also in the early returns, but McMaster nonetheless came back to win, and even to win by a pretty solid margin (he is up by 11 now). So we do already have 1 significant example where whatever weighted average you want to make of the exit polls and the actual votes counted so far turned out to be off (and quite a bit off, at that).

So I dunno, I am not sure what my specific point here is. Maybe my point is that I don't have a specific point - but for any given race, anything can happen. Some things definitely are more likely than others, given the results and the exit polls. It is definitely always better to be up in the exit polls and up in the votes that have come in so far than to be down in the exit polls and down in the votes that have come in so far.

And then, there is another interesting question. In cases where you are either:

a) up in the exit polls and also down in the votes counted so far

or alternatively you are:

b) down in the exit polls and also up in the votes counted so far

the question is which of those two is better? That is hard to say, but probably depends on what % of the votes are actually counted so far.

But there is a significant amount of error/randomness here both in the exit polls and also the results coming in. It is supposed to be hard to tell with overly high confidence exactly what is going to happen, so I would be cautious about making too firm conclusions yet, especially about any one particular race.

[Pericles]

Seems to me Dems are doing pretty well at least in the House, with GA-07 flippable looking at these results they seem like they'll get the majority. So I'll take it! Tell me if I'm missing anything.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Seems to me Dems are doing pretty well at least in the House, with GA-07 flippable looking at these results they seem like they'll get the majority. So I'll take it! Tell me if I'm missing anything.

There are some house races that seem to be looking good for Dems (some others also, which are not).

As for GA-07, I think Dems there are probably helped somewhat by Abrams' turnout efforts. So if Dems win that seat, no doubt it will be a big pickup, but there is some question as to how much it carries over into other similar minority-heavy suburban seats where you don't have an equivalent of the Abrams machine focusing on turning low-propensity Dem voters out in the same way.

We will know significantly more in 20 minutes (9:00 EST), then we will get exit polls from AZ, CO, KS, LA, MN, NE, NY, SD, WI, and WY. There are a lot of big house races in those, in particular probably AZ/KS/MN/NY all having multiple seats very much on the radar, and some others with maybe 1-2 seats.

[OBD]

Any word from the NYT Needle^TM?

Also is Conor Lamb's mega-coattails going to flip PA-14 too lol.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I had a few people interested in how I was generating these election results (for potentially using something similar their own timelines or whatever else) sending me PMs about it. So, for anyone who is interested and wants to try it out, I basic version which takes out anything that will directly (or even indirectly, very much) reveal what the results are likely to be for the rest of this timeline. I will also add this in the 1st post of this thread.

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Any word from the NYT Needle^TM?

Also is Conor Lamb's mega-coattails going to flip PA-14 too lol.

The Needle^TM says...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any word from the NYT Needle^TM?

Also is Conor Lamb's mega-coattails going to flip PA-14 too lol.

The Needle^TM says...

We're all on pins and needles.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

How does the atlas thread look

[GeorgiaModerate]

How does the atlas thread look

The server crashed an hour ago.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

How does the atlas thread look

The server crashed an hour ago.

Let's make this official...




LIVE LOOK AT THE ATLAS ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS THREAD:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:50 PM EST: NELSON INCREASES LEAD IN FLORIDA; SHALALA PULLS NARROWLY AHEAD


Bill Nelson tries to hold on

November 6, 2018, 8:50 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

Wolf Blitzer: "And lost in all the shuffle there, while our panel was having such an interesting discussion, Democrat Andrew Gillum has been called as the winner of the Florida Gubernatorial race."

John King: "Yes Wolf, this is a really major pickup for the Democrats. Democrats have not held the Gubernatorial mansion in Florida for decades now, and Florida is the largest Presidential swing state."

Wolf Blitzer: "And no real surprise at this point, enough votes in West Virginia have just come in to allow us to call the race for Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin. Joe Manchin is the winner in the West Virginia Senate Race, an important Senate seat held by the Democrats."

John King: "We've just got in more votes from Florida, and it is good news for Bill Nelson. He now holds a 49.6%-48.8% lead over Rick Scott. We've got 97% reporting now, almost all the votes in. Rick Scott could still come back in theory, and we are not yet ready to call the race, but it is looking better for Nelson than it was just a few minutes ago."

John King: "In Missouri though, this has to have Republicans excited and Democrats worried, Josh Hawley's lead has actually gotten bigger as the last set of votes has come in. He's up to a dominating lead of almost 50 points. 50 points with 39% reporting, would you believe that? But it is almost all from rural Missouri, still almost all the votes to be counted in St. Louis and Kansas City. But these are the sorts of margins Hawley has wanted to put up across rural Missouri. This could turn out to be the second Republican gain in the Senate, following Indiana. Still a lot of votes to count, however."

John King: "In the New Jersey Senate race, Bob Menendez is up, but by less than 10 points. Not the most inspiring performance by the Democratic incumbent there in New Jersey."

John King: "Interestingly, Tennessee is sort of the opposite situation to Missouri, just a bit less extreme maybe. 64% is reporting there, and Democrat Phil Bredesen has a substantial 11-12 point lead, but with more of the urban counties reporting so far. Bredesen is also running pretty strong in Middle Tennessee in some of those rural areas, though, ancestrally Democratic Al Gore country. Nothing more in from Texas yet, though."

John King: "In the Gubernatorial races, Stacey Abrams is continuing to reduce Republican Brian Kemp's lead, it's down to less than 1% with 97% in. To avoid a runoff, you have to win by more than 50% in Georgia, and both candidates are under that right now."

John King: "The big story, though, has to be Ohio. Democrat Richard Cordray has just drastically cut Mike DeWine's lead, it is now down to just 6,968 votes. 95% reporting there. I guess we'll have to keep more of an eye on this one."

John King: "In Maryland, though, the Democrats have lost their momentum. Larry Hogan has greatly expanded his lead from about a dead heat to a 14 point lead, now that we've got 48% reporting."

John King: "New Hampshire continues to be close, a narrow lead of 2 and half points for the Republicans there over Molly Kelly. And in Oklahoma, Republican Kevin Stitt's lead has shrunk now to under 10 points with 70% in."

John King: "And here is something really interesting... The Texas Governor's race... Greg Abbott, the popular Republican incumbent, is up by just under 3 points with 75% reporting. This is much closer than would have been expected, but so are a lot of those Texas House races."

Wolf Blitzer: "In the House, we are calling FL-07 for the Democrats. Stephanie Murphy, the winner there. This was a Democratic held seat, but Republicans had hoped to make it competitive."

John King: "Also in Florida, in FL-27 Donna Shalala has now taken a narrow lead - 50.3% to 49.7%, with 97% reporting. This is a race that Democrats say never should have been this close, but Shalala ran a subpar campaign. All the races that Democrats had hoped to win outside of the Cuban districts, however, are Republican. We've called FL-15 and FL-16 for the GOP now. FL-18 is a possibility, but Republicans still lead there."

John King: "And in North Carolina, the votes are really starting to come in. We're getting a clearer picture here. In NC-02, Republican incumbent George Holding now ahead by less than 1 point, with 77% in. In NC-05, Virginia Foxx has cut the Democratic lead, but we're now up to 93% reporting. NC-09, that's just been called for Dan McCready. A Democratic pickup there. And in NC-13, Kathy Manning still ahead, but her lead has dropped to less than 3 points, with 92% reporting."

John King: "In Ohio, the only race of interest seems to be OH-14 right now. Republican incumbent Dave Joyce has cut the Democratic lead to under a point, with 81% reporting. And in WV-03, Richard Ojeda is still clinging to about a 1 point lead, 90% reporting."

John King: "Nothing to call yet in Illinois, but IL-06, IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14 all are looking competitive. Votes are still coming in quickly in Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Texas - multiple competitive races in all those states."

John King: "In the big picture, Democrats are now up to a 7.5% lead in the national popular vote. Yet, at least so far, we have not been able to call that many pickups yet. But it does look like quite a few more could come over the next hour or so, between all those races we have been talking about."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

8:50 PM EST: NELSON INCREASES LEAD IN FLORIDA; SHALALA PULLS NARROWLY AHEAD (CONTINUED)

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