From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:20 PM EST: DEMOCRATS TAKE HOUSE; NV-SEN CALLED, REPUBLICANS LEAD IN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA SENATE RACES (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 24 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 14 D --- 18 R

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[/quote]

[2016]

So, the House has gone Democratic as expected. I'm told the Magic Number Republicans are looking now is 200. They would like to have 200 Seats in the next Congress.

As far as the Senate is concerned North Dakota is following a similar pattern to the Kansas Governor Race where the Democrat was leading all Night long until Western Kansas came in. I'd be very worried if I were Heitkamp.

If you look at Montana Rosendale has opened up rougly a 7,000 Vote lead but all the Metro Areas who are favorable to Tester are mostly in. We've to go to John King to verify that but that is what I'm hearing.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Honestly it's North Dakota and Montana. Those two Senate races can decide everything. If Cramer and Rosendale lose, the Senate Composition will be 50-50, if they win, it will be 52-48. Even though the Republicans lose the House, gaining even one seat in the Senate and possibly limiting their losses in the House would be considered a victory and Trump will be able to use the House as a scapegoat in 2020. A main thing for the Senate though is Senate Majority Leader McConnell cannot run in 2020. His unpopularity could be a key factor in why Republican gains were so limited this year. In fact, any Republican that is in their third or higher term should resign. The GOP needs some fresh blood and doing that will help them in the long run.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:30 PM EST: DEMOCRATIC HOUSE MAJORITY EXPANDS



November 6, 2018, 11:30 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

John King: "Let's review the situation in the House, we haven't looked at individual races in a while now. First of all, here is the state of the popular vote now. We have pretty close to settled, but the Democrats are now gaining again slightly in the popular vote as California comes in."



John King: "We are at 229 Democratic seats called, 182 for the Republicans. And as far as individual races go, we have had a few more Democratic pickups. Democrats have picked up MN-08 and NE-02, and held NV-03, Jacky Rosen's former district. For the Republicans, we have called AZ-08 and IA-04. We are still waiting for more results to come in to get a better idea of the situation in a lot of these big House races in California and Washington."

Wolf Blitzer: "And any updates on the Senate?"

John King: "In Montana, it looks like Jon Tester has pulled into a very narrow lead, 49.2%-48.8% with 93% in now. And in North Dakota, it is Cramer now up by a bit more than 4 points with 95% in. Cramer now appears to be in a strong position to win it, but we are not calling it yet."

Wolf Blitzer: "Let's go to our panel, with Anderson Cooper, for some analysis."

Anderson Cooper: "Panelists, what are you seeing now? Can you give us any insight into those Senate races?"

New Tennessean Politician: "Honestly it's North Dakota and Montana. Those two Senate races can decide everything. If Cramer and Rosendale lose, the Senate Composition will be 50-50, if they win, it will be 52-48. Even though the Republicans lose the House, gaining even one seat in the Senate and possibly limiting their losses in the House would be considered a victory and Trump will be able to use the House as a scapegoat in 2020. A main thing for the Senate though is Senate Majority Leader McConnell cannot run in 2020. His unpopularity could be a key factor in why Republican gains were so limited this year. In fact, any Republican that is in their third or higher term should resign. The GOP needs some fresh blood and doing that will help them in the long run."

2016: "So, the House has gone Democratic as expected. I'm told the Magic Number Republicans are looking now is 200. They would like to have 200 Seats in the next Congress. As far as the Senate is concerned North Dakota is following a similar pattern to the Kansas Governor Race where the Democrat was leading all Night long until Western Kansas came in. With the votes we have just seen come in, that appears to be very true. I'd be very worried if I were Heitkamp. At this point I don't see how she could make up this margin Cramer has built up. If you look at Montana, Tester has opened up a small 1,832 vote lead, but all the Metro Areas who are favorable to Tester are mostly in. We've to go to John King to verify that but that is what I'm hearing."

Anderson Cooper: "John, can you take a look?"

John King: "Well, it is true that Missoula County, Lewis and Clark, and Gallatin county are all 100% in. Those are some of the largest counties in Montana, and strong Democratic counties with Missoula, Helena, and Bozeman. There is a bit left here in Cascade County, where Great Falls is. That has some precincts that will go for Tester, but also some that are likely to go for Rosendale. It is true that other than that, most of the votes left to report are from rural areas. However, Montana is an interesting state and some of those rural areas in Montana are Indian reservations. So I think it is hard to say which way it will go from this point with too much confidence."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:30 PM EST: DEMOCRATIC HOUSE MAJORITY EXPANDS (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 25 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 14 D --- 18 R

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[/quote]

[OBD]

I say Tester wins in MT and Heitkamp goes down. So the Senate will be 49-51 R. Not the best by far, but also not the worst.

Also noooooooo RIP Knute

[Huey Long is a Republican]

with a .4% lead, Tester is in serious danger of recount territory and 7% of the vote is left and I do think that most of that is from Rural areas, which will certainly help Rosendale. Final MT Senate Prediction is 49.1% Rosendale, 48.9% Tester, 2% Others. In North Dakota, Heitkamp is finished. There is 5% of the vote left and Cramer has a 4.2% lead over her. Most of the Urban areas have come in at this point and much of the remaining 5% will help Cramer consolidate his win. I predict it will be 52.5%-53.1% Cramer, 47.2%-46.4% Heitkamp, .3%-.5% Others. Final Senate Prediction is 52 R, 48 D

[2016]

What's interesting is that the R-House Candidates in MT & ND overperforming their Senate Candidates. That leads me to believe that there are enough Votes out there for Rosendale to overtake Tester...

Montana House At-Large (95% in)
Greg Gianforte (R) 201,333 Votes
Kathleen Williams (D) 195,624 Votes
Difference: 5,709 Votes

Montana Senate (93% in)
Jon Tester (D) 201,414 Votes
Matt Rosendale (R) 199,582 Votes
Difference: 1,852 Votes

North Dakota House At-Large (94% in)
Kelly Armstrong (R) 130,290 Votes
Mac Schneider (D) 103,106 Votes
Difference: 27,184 Votes

North Dakota Senate (95% in)
Kevin Cramer (R) 133,762 Votes
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 123,011 Votes
Difference: 10,751 Votes

Also, say what you want about President Trump...his Final Campaign Stop was for Kevin Cramer and that apparently as the Results show has made a huge Difference.

[Coastal Elitist]

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

[2016]

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

Why are you drawing to too many conclusions when only 1/4 of the Vote is counted? Why can't you let Cruz play this out instead of mocking it? You don't like the TL, don't read it!

[OBD]

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

Relax the vote is 20% in. Ds were leading in Idaho for a while.

[Coastal Elitist]

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

Relax the vote is 20% in. Ds were leading in Idaho for a while.

Comments are based off his exit poll, which has CA-1 50-50 and CA-4 100-0.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

Relax the vote is 20% in. Ds were leading in Idaho for a while.

Comments are based off his exit poll, which has CA-1 50-50 and CA-4 100-0.

I agree, the exit poll for CA-01 is indeed surprising, but it may be off. We have had a number of other exit polls where the #s have been incorrect (sometimes greatly so).

On CA-04, looks like you are right - that is an error on my part. There should be a Dem, although the mistake doesn't really matter much since this district should be safe R.

[2016]

I agree, the exit poll for CA-01 is indeed surprising, but it may be off. We have had a number of other exit polls where the #s have been incorrect (sometimes greatly so).

On CA-04, looks like you are right - that is an error on my part. There should be a Dem, although the mistake doesn't really matter much since this district should be safe R.

I think the sometimes wonky Exit Polls is what makes this Election Night so exciting
When is the next Update? We are all dying here

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:40 PM EST: NORTH DAKOTA SENATE CALLED


Heidi Heitkamp walks towards the stage at her victory party to concede the North Dakota Senate race

November 6, 2018, 11:38 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, Fargo, North Dakota
Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate Victory Party

...

Heidi Heitkamp sat looking at the computer screen for what seemed like a year, but was only actually a few seconds. She turned to her campaign manager, Libby, who nodded and said, "It's time." "I know," Heitkamp responded. She got up, and started walking towards the stage. Libby followed.

"Well," Heidi thought, "it has been a good 6 years. No newspaper to hold up this time, though."

...

November 6, 2018, 11:40 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "And we are now going live to North Dakota, where Heidi Heitkamp is coming out to address her supporters."



Heidi Heitkamp: "First, I want to thank everyone who stood with me, who stood for North Dakota in this campaign. You all worked so hard. Our cause was just. And although this campaign is now over, that cause will go on. And I'd like to congratulate Kevin Cramer on a race well fought, and on a victory well earned. You know, when..."

CNN cuts away

Wolf Blitzer: "And there we have it. Heidi Heitkamp has conceded defeat in the North Dakota Senate race. That's another pickup for the Republicans, their second pickup of the night after Indiana. Meanwhile the Democrats have picked up Nevada and Arizona, so so far there is no change in the overall number of seats each party has in the Senate."

John King: "But we are still getting votes in from Montana. It remains close there, but Jon Tester has built up a 1 point lead now, with 97% in. Matt Rosendale, the Republican, could still come back if the remaining votes come from rural areas where he will do well, and if all the Native American vote is in now. Or, even if he can't catch up completely, he might be able to get it back close enough for a recount. But we will have to wait and see."

John King: "In the Gubernatorial races, I am afraid we have bad news for supporters of Knute Buehler in Oregon - we are calling the rae for Kate Brown. And in Iowa and Nevada, we are up to 87% and 95% in, and the Democrats are leading by about 3 points in each of those right now."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:40 PM EST: NORTH DAKOTA SENATE CALLED (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 25 D --- 8 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 15 D --- 18 R

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[/quote]

[OBD]

No update?

[USO2019PB]

No update?

[Pericles]

No update?

[Huey Long is a Republican]

No update?

[Gass3268]

No update?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:50 PM EST: WAITING FOR MONTANA


Montana Poll Workers Count Votes... or... take a break...

November 6, 2018, 11:50 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "John King, can you give us an update on how things are going in Montana now? What are the new numbers looking like now?"

John King: "Well, we haven't gotten any new numbers in from Montana."

Wolf Blitzer: "Those Montanans, taking their sweet time counting votes for the last few precincts in this key race. Don't they know we are waiting? All eyes are on Montana, and yet they give us no results. Well, while we wait, how about the House, how is that looking?"

John King: "Well, we have called a few more races. The Democrats are now up to 232 called seats, 185 for the Republicans. The Democrats won NV-04 about 10 minutes ago, and have picked up both IA-01 and IA-03. A big night for the Democrats in Iowa - they also lead the Gubernatorial race there. The Republicans held Montana. Although we haven't gotten more results for the Senate race, enough votes trickled in for the House race to call it for Greg Gianforte, the Republican incumbent. And the Republicans held UT-04, incumbent Mia Love holding on there."

John King: "And we are starting to get enough results in from California and Washington to take a closer look at the House races there. In CA-01, so far we have a shocker. The Democrat Audrey Denney is narrowly ahead of Republican Incumbent Doug LaMalfa by about 3 points, with 39% in. This is not a race anyone was really expecting to be competitive, so we will have to see how it holds up. And in CA-10, Republican Incumbent Jeff Denham is ahead by close to 4 points with 54% in. And surprisingly, in CA-16 Democratic incumbent Jim Costa trails by 1 point so far with 48% in. In CA-21, just 189 votes, out of about 50,000 counted so far, are keep David Valadao ahead of the Democrat TJ Cox. In CA-22, Devin Nunes is up by 17 points with 67% in - that race is not living up to the millions of dollars dumped into it so far."

John King: "In LA County, Katie Hill leads in CA-25 by more than 20 points. Only 28% in there, though, and reportedly it is all from Palmdale. In Orange County, we've got Republican leads in CA-45 and CA-48, while the Democrats lead in CA-39 and CA-49 at the moment. Still a lot of votes to count there. And in CA-50, Republican Duncan Hunter is way ahead with 63% in, despite being under indictment."

John King: "In Washington State, we've got a tight race in WA-03. 51.9% for Carolyn Long and 48.1% for Jaime Herrera-Beutler, the Republican incumbent. In WA-05, Cathy McMorris Rogers is up handily by about 13 points with 51% in. And in WA-08, Republican Dino Rossi is getting demolished by more than 15 points by Kim Schrier so far, with 64% in."

Wolf Blitzer: "Do we have anything from Montana yet?"

John King: "No Wolf, we're still waiting."

Wolf Blitzer: "And while we are waiting, let's just quickly mention that in 10 minutes from now, polls will close in the Great State of Alaska. What is coming up in Alaska, John King?"

John King: "That's right Wolf, there's a big Governor's race in Alaska, it was a 3-way race until recently, but the incumbent governor Bill Walker, an independent, dropped out. There was concern among Democrats that Walker and the Democrat, Begich, were going to split the vote. Some recent polls have shown it a bit tighter, but the problem is a lot of votes have already been cast, so we may see quite a few votes for Walker anyway."

Wolf Blitzer: "Anything from Montana yet?"

John King: "No, not yet. We are still at 97% reporting. 212,149 votes for Tester, 207,888 for Rosendale. They still seem to be counting, but haven't reported yet."

Wolf Blitzer: "So what do we do now, John King?"

John King: "We could take a commercial break."

Wolf Blitzer: "But it's not time for that. What shall we do then to fill the time?"



Waiting For Montana

John King (VLADIMIR):
We're waiting for Montana. Or is it for Alaska?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
(despairingly). Ah! (Pause.) You're sure it was here?
John King (VLADIMIR):
What?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
That we were to wait.
John King (VLADIMIR):
He said by the magic wall. (They look at the magic wall.) Do you see any others?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
What is it?
John King (VLADIMIR):
I don't know. A screen.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Where are the computers?
John King (VLADIMIR):
It must be unplugged.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
No more weeping.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Or perhaps it's not the time for counting votes.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Looks to me more like a touchscreen.
John King (VLADIMIR):
A county map.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Missoula County?
John King (VLADIMIR):
A — . What are you insinuating? That we've come to the wrong place?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Montana should be reporting here.
John King (VLADIMIR):
We don't know for sure Montana will report tonight. Sometimes they stop counting and go home, if it gets too late. Sometimes ballots get lost and then found the next morning.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
And if Montana doesn't report?
John King (VLADIMIR):
We'll come back in 10 minutes.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
And then the day after tomorrow.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Possibly.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
And so on.
John King (VLADIMIR):
The point is —
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Until he comes.
John King (VLADIMIR):
You're merciless.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
We came here 10 minutes ago, we had an update 10 minutes ago, there should be an update now too.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Ah no, there you're mistaken.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
What did we do 10 minutes ago?
John King (VLADIMIR):
What did we do 10 minutes ago?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Yes.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Why . . . (Angrily.) Nothing is certain when you're about.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
In my opinion we were here.
John King (VLADIMIR): (looking round).
You recognize the place?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
I didn't say that.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Well?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
That makes no difference.
John King (VLADIMIR):
All the same . . . that magic wall. . . (turning towards auditorium) that bog . . .
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
You're sure it was this evening?
John King (VLADIMIR):
What?
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
Election Night.
John King (VLADIMIR):
Yes, it is election night, I am pretty sure.
Wolf Blitzer (ESTRAGON):
That we were to wait.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

11:50 PM EST: WAITING FOR MONTANA (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 25 D --- 8 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 15 D --- 18 R

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[/quote]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

No update?

I had previously been a couple of days ahead in writing updates. On days when I felt like writing, I often wrote more than one update, and stuck them in the pile. Then when it was time to post an update, I just pulled out the next one and copy/pasted it. But now, I have managed more recently to lose those days ahead.

Part of the problem is that as less results are coming in, there is starting to get less to write about. It is starting to give me existential angst. What am I supposed to say? It is hard to fill the time on election night when you start getting up to around midnight, unless maybe you have a lot of uncalled races (but we don't, really).

And so...

We wait...

For Montana...

But once we get that, I am increasingly less sure of what to talk about (for 10 minute updates). There are just a few house races left for the most part.

After we have the results all in, then I plan to more or less wait until the real election day, see how that goes in comparison to this timeline, and then figure out from there the best way to go forward with this.

[OBD]

No update?

I had previously been a couple of days ahead in writing updates. On days when I felt like writing, I often wrote more than one update, and stuck them in the pile. Then when it was time to post an update, I just pulled out the next one and copy/pasted it. But now, I have managed more recently to lose those days ahead.

Part of the problem is that as less results are coming in, there is starting to get less to write about. It is starting to give me existential angst. What am I supposed to say? It is hard to fill the time on election night when you start getting up to around midnight, unless maybe you have a lot of uncalled races (but we don't, really).

And so...

We wait...

For Montana...

But once we get that, I am increasingly less sure of what to talk about (for 10 minute updates). There are just a few house races left for the most part.

After we have the results all in, then I plan to more or less wait until the real election day, see how that goes in comparison to this timeline, and then figure out from there the best way to go forward with this.

Sounds alright. Great coverage (probably the best I've seen) by the way!