From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (user search)
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  From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (search mode)
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Author Topic: From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage  (Read 24317 times)
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« on: September 21, 2018, 12:04:39 PM »
Interesting!
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2018, 11:23:54 AM »
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2018, 01:01:03 PM »
Hold on, what?
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2018, 07:07:51 PM »
I'm sorry but these exit polls don't make a ton of sense (Indiana Senate and KY-06 vs everything else). Looking forward to the actual results, though!
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2018, 12:01:49 PM »
It looks like the exit polls were badly off.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2018, 02:35:19 PM »
Want...more...
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2018, 02:32:45 PM »
COME ON DONNELLY
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2018, 06:47:18 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on September 29, 2018, 06:33:00 PM
Keep in mind: I think ANY House Race that is within 0.5 of a Percentage Point has a Recount Provision I believe.

KY-6...WOW...what a close Race...570-Vote lead for McGrath. Where are those last 8% of Precincts? Is Fayette County (Lexington) all in? If yes Barr might pull this out.

HUGE DESCREPANCIES in the two Statewide Races in Florida. Rick Scott is up big while on the other side DeSantis is down big. A bit odd but then Scott in his last 4 years as Governor governed more like a Moderate while DeSantis is a conservative firebrand.
Yeah what on earth is happening in Florida lol
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2018, 01:24:06 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on September 30, 2018, 01:17:49 PM
More!  Please don't let Donnelly lose, haha.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 08:51:56 AM »
As a Democrat, I'm feeling pretty uneasy right now.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 11:38:08 AM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 01, 2018, 11:21:15 AM
Quote from: 2016 on October 01, 2018, 11:12:19 AM
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 01, 2018, 10:55:15 AM
OK, I am probably going to drop back to 1 10-minute-update per day for a while now. That should ensure that it takes about a month to get to the end of election night at this point, where all the races are called.

2 per Day would be better I think.

1 x Morning
1 x Evening

Giving AZ, NV (Senate) as well as CA (House) your Election Night will probably go until 2-3 am in the Morning.

We have 36 days until election day.

Going to 2 AM is about right for when the last races (Alaska) should be called, and would take 35 more updates.

So that seems pretty close to right. We may need to double up a bit at the end, but I think it would be better to double up on later updates than the current ones. The later ones will be much more boring, because it will be just waiting for the last few votes in the last few races to come in.

Whereas right now, we are sort of at the point of maximum tension, with hundreds of races all coming in at once. And it seems like a good idea to prolong that tension and thereby prolong everyone's suffering and anxiety about how it will turn out Cheesy
You're cruel Sad

But this is great! Keep on going!
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 12:53:25 PM »
LET'S GO DEMOCRATS (and Knute Buehler I guess)
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 11:55:08 AM »
UGH CMON DONNELLY
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2018, 12:11:41 PM »
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2018, 05:16:31 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2018, 05:23:54 PM by Democrats for Knute Buehler »
Any word from the NYT NeedleTM?

Also is Conor Lamb's mega-coattails going to flip PA-14 too lol.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 11:12:04 AM »
Quote from: DataGuy on October 07, 2018, 11:03:44 AM
Has anyone noticed that Beto is still leading Cruz 52.8% to 45.4% with 52% already in? His lead just seems to increase as more votes are counted. Wouldn't it be the ultimate irony if Cruz ending up losing in Cruz Will Win's thread?

I also see that Greg Abbott is leading Valdez by less than three points (51.0% to 48.3%) with 75% in. That's not very realistic in my opinion, but if it really was true, that spells massive trouble for Cruz because he always runs behind Abbott.

I realize these numbers are randomized, but on a real election night, these results would portend a giant blue tsunami.
I mean I would hope so but these numbers actually can swing very rapidly...
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2018, 12:46:16 PM »
UGGGG NOT THIS AGAIN

Hoping the Dem Senate candidates can pull it off...
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2018, 01:16:32 PM »
I'd say if Cruz wins Dem senate hopes are over.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2018, 11:24:18 AM »
RIP Beto and Dems' Senate hopes.
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2018, 12:00:43 PM »
Dang RIP Knute but does Oregon actually close at 10 PM now?
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2018, 11:29:05 AM »
At this point McSally needs the remaining vote to be, like, 70-75% in her favor according to my calculations. I would feel safe calling the race for Sinema.

It's too early to draw anything from the 10:00 states, but, um, what's happening in Idaho. It's probably a fluke but massive NUT if those are the actual results.

Why not call NM-Gov, it's numerically impossible for the Republicans to win there.

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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2018, 08:56:24 AM »
Quote from: Representative Weatherboy1102 on October 15, 2018, 06:42:16 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 14, 2018, 10:40:53 PM
Have to admit that an almost 17 point difference between the Wisconsin Senate race and Wisconsin Governor race makes little sense to me. Just looking at the house numbers in Wisconsin, it should be an across the board Democratic sweep.

that indicates to me that mostly R areas are reporting in the GOV race. Seems odd to me precincts are reporting for different races at different times.
Maybe Dane County is still out cuz at this point Evers needs >90% of the vote to come back.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2018, 03:37:39 PM »
KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 11:41:41 AM »
Why did you say Kate Brown is up by 13? Looking at the results it looks like Knute is the one leading?

Also a technical issue for me as this timeline doesn't bump for me for some reason. Did I do something wrong?
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OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,580
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2018, 12:54:15 PM »
I say Tester wins in MT and Heitkamp goes down. So the Senate will be 49-51 R. Not the best by far, but also not the worst.

Also noooooooo RIP Knute
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