From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (user search)
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  From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (search mode)
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Author Topic: From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage  (Read 24328 times)
KaiserDave
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*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« on: September 21, 2018, 02:11:13 PM »
Very interesting....
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2018, 10:50:50 AM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 22, 2018, 10:45:03 AM
Quote from: RedPrometheus on September 22, 2018, 10:41:27 AM
I love this timeline and I love the insight of the panel Cheesy

Yup, that's what the panel is paid for. Cheesy
I like it a lot.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2018, 10:57:24 AM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on September 23, 2018, 10:33:52 AM
Quote from: Representative Pericles on September 22, 2018, 10:38:01 PM
Great TL. Shame Beto will inevitably lose given who the author is, but looking forward to seeing the results regardless. Seems very well done and realistic!

I'm actually using a probabilistic model to generate the election results. So while Cruz is favored, Beto does actually have a chance in this (and not just an entirely negligible one, either). This should make it more interesting - the results will be more unexpected that way. To make sure I am not tempted to re-run the simulation if I don't like the results, when I am running the simulation that I use I'll post here, and then I'll be mentally committed to using that particular simulation run.

Note - I have already run the simulation for House results, but the house is large/complicated enough that I did make some manual tweaks to it. But for the Senate and Governor's races, I think I can just do it purely randomly relying entirely on the model.

The other thing is that from the actual results, I also have randomly generated exit polls, which have both a systematic error component (i.e. all the exit polls could overstate Dems or all could overstate Reps), and also an idiosyncratic error component (an error just for that individual race). So we will have exit polls which will be reflective of the actual results, but biased/inaccurate to a random/varying degree. This way, part of the fun with looking at the results come in will be trying to figure out how much and in what way the exit polls are off.

What's the simulator?
And will you manually stop crazy things like Angus King or Tim Kaine losing?
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2018, 08:15:26 PM »
Odd exit polls, but very excited to see how this goes.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 01:55:33 PM »
As a Dem, it's panic time
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2018, 02:52:22 PM »
From panic to cautious optimism about the House, and frustration in the Senate. If one of the 3 (Bredesen, Claire, Beto) can win, I'll be happy.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2018, 11:39:20 AM »
Ew Cruz wins. But looks like Dems have a reasonable shot at the senate. Very slim.
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