Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13
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Author Topic: Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13  (Read 11594 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #75 on: October 31, 2018, 03:32:08 AM »

Did Aryeh King get elected in Jerusalem?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #76 on: October 31, 2018, 03:44:33 AM »

Did Aryeh King get elected in Jerusalem?

Yeah, seems like 2 seats for his list.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #77 on: October 31, 2018, 04:51:01 AM »

Did Aryeh King get elected in Jerusalem?
2 seats.
17 seats for the Haredi bloc, 5 for the general right (JH+Likud), 9 for the centre and the left (Berkovitch 6+2 Meretz+1 Havilio).
Leon couldn't get in which is amusing as he will need a special appointment by the Home Office if he becomes a mayor.

Meretz became the largest faction in Kfar Saba, Raanana, and surprisingly Rosh Hayen (a likud stronghold mostly).
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #78 on: October 31, 2018, 05:14:15 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #79 on: October 31, 2018, 05:37:48 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #80 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:38 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness

Yeah, Beit Shemesh is a Haredi vs religions zionist fight. Still, with a minimal amount of Haredi soldiers, I'd expect most of the provinsial votes to go to her, no? And there gotta be more than 300 voting soldiers in such a big city.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2018, 06:11:06 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness

Yeah, Beit Shemesh is a Haredi vs religions zionist fight. Still, with a minimal amount of Haredi soldiers, I'd expect most of the provinsial votes to go to her, no? And there gotta be more than 300 voting soldiers in such a big city.
I don't think there are that many soldiers in the city, I also think that at least some of them would prefer voting for the Shas candidate (the truck driver characters...). Even if there are 700 voting, turnout for soldiers is shambolic so she will literary have to carry above 90% of them to see them through. Add 50 prisoners who most likely will go with the Haredi guy and it's even harder. 

Neharaya saw the repugnant incumbent knocked out in a landslide to a labour candidate who had the most beautiful thing to say "I'm not a political person". Jesus wept.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #82 on: October 31, 2018, 06:13:42 AM »

Neharaya saw the repugnant incumbent knocked out in a landslide to a labour candidate who had the most beautiful thing to say "I'm not a political person". Jesus wept.

Well, Nahariya is a very right-wing city, so knocking down a corrupt incumbent and replacing him aith a Labour centrist is already impressive. Of course, Gabbay will try to tout this as a sign that he can get votes in the periphery, which it isn't.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2018, 12:23:15 AM »

Aliza Bloch, a religious-zionist woman from the Jewish Home, upset the incumbent haredi Mayor of Beit Shemesh by a margin of 500 votes. I doubt this means much, but at least the guy whose rhetoric was that of a Jewish Kadyrov was defeated.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #84 on: November 01, 2018, 02:13:25 AM »

Aliza Bloch, a religious-zionist woman from the Jewish Home, upset the incumbent haredi Mayor of Beit Shemesh by a margin of 500 votes. I doubt this means much, but at least the guy whose rhetoric was that of a Jewish Kadyrov was defeated.
Well that was surprising. Not that Beit Shemesh will change, but I really didn't see the provisional votes having such impact.

still looking for results according to ballot box and maybe then we could have some nice maps
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Hnv1
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« Reply #85 on: November 01, 2018, 02:42:53 AM »

Haifa city council (changes since 2013):
Kalish's faction (basically Labour) - 4 (+1(
Yahav's faction - 4 (-3 as he ran united with the 'Youth of Haifa' who got 3 last time around as he got 4).
Green Party - 4 (+2)
Atzioni's faction - 3 (+3 didn't run)
Likud - 3 (+2)
Hadash - 2
YB - 2 (-1)
Degel Hatorah - 2 (UTJ+Shas ran together and got 4 last time around)
Senior Citizens - 1 (same)
Meretz (+1, first time since 2000)
JH - 1 (unchanged)
Shas - 1
Agudat Israel - 1
Sarit Golan - 1 (new)
Tzvi Barbi - 1 (new)

good night for the progressive parties, with Kalish+Greens+Meretz getting a third of the council (Meretz already signed a coalition agreement). Atzioni+YB+Degel will join which gets the narrow majority of 16. I assume the smaller factions will join as well.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #86 on: November 01, 2018, 08:29:05 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2018, 12:50:46 PM by Hnv1 »

Jerusalem City Council final results:
Berkovitz - 7
Degel Hatorah - 6
Shas - 5
Agudat Israel - 3
Elkin's party - 2 (he will remain as an MK)
JH - 2
Far Right List - 2
Meretz - 1
Havilio - 1
Likud - 1 (lol)
Bnei Torah - 1

So basically the Haredi have 15\31. As Meretz won't sit with King and the far right, if Berkovitch wins he'll have to utilize at least one Haredi party.

I can't seem to find the Tel Aviv city council results yet (well verified), and the Home Office results site is out for the past 36 hours. ridicolous

Edit: Tel Aviv results:
Holdai’s faction - 7 (+2)
Zamir’s faction - 6 (+2)
Meretz- 4 (-2)
Harel’s faction/Hadash - 4 (+1)
Green-Secular - 2 (new party)
Senior citizens - 2 (0)
Shas - 2 (ran in a united religious party last time)
Yesh Attid- 1 (0)
Yaffa - 1 (0, new Arabic party)
JH - 1 (see Shas)
Likud - 1 (-1)
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danny
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« Reply #87 on: November 01, 2018, 02:49:33 PM »

Jerusalem City Council final results:
Berkovitz - 7
Degel Hatorah - 6
Shas - 5
Agudat Israel - 3
Elkin's party - 2 (he will remain as an MK)
JH - 2
Far Right List - 2
Meretz - 1
Havilio - 1
Likud - 1 (lol)
Bnei Torah - 1

So basically the Haredi have 15\31. As Meretz won't sit with King and the far right, if Berkovitch wins he'll have to utilize at least one Haredi party.


The "far right list" is the Yishai Kahanist coalition and number 2 is Yishai's representative (and grandson of Ovadia Yosef), so it's really a 16/31 Haredi majority.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #88 on: November 01, 2018, 02:56:20 PM »

Serves the TLV Likud right for their racially-charged campaign.
Also, does anyone know how extreme the Bnei Torah party is? I guess Berkovitch would try to combine Hitorerut with Havilio, Meretz, Elkin, JH, Likud and one of the Haredi parties, so I wonder which ones are the most palpable. Maybe Shas are kess extreme when it comes to Shabbat, or Agudat Israel because they didn't support Leon. Also, wouldn't JH make the plan to transfer more education resources to Eastern Jerusalem harder?

And as Meretz lost a seat, my acquittance won't enter the council. Oh well Tongue
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DavidB.
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« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2018, 08:22:06 AM »

Does the mayor form a coalition? What happens if, say, Berkovitch becomes mayor but the religious right-wing majority will continue to oppose Berkovitch's plans?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #90 on: November 02, 2018, 09:59:27 AM »

Does the mayor form a coalition? What happens if, say, Berkovitch becomes mayor but the religious right-wing majority will continue to oppose Berkovitch's plans?
Difficult question. The mayor does form a coalition though he’s not obliged to do so by law and they can’t vote him out. You can picture a scenario with a mayor and a council that opposes him and strikes down his budget and bills. It will be an odd situation legally. But we can write it off as an option. Being in the a municipal opposition is like the desert, most mayors enjoy the support of 80% of their council
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danny
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« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2018, 02:09:57 PM »

Map of the first round in Jerusalem:



Light Blue= Lion plurality
Dark Blue= Lion majority
Yellow= Berkovitch plurality
Darker yellow= Berkovitch majority
Green= Deitsch
Orange= Elkin
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danny
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« Reply #92 on: November 04, 2018, 03:36:55 PM »

Lion strength map:


Berkovitch strength map:
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danny
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« Reply #93 on: November 04, 2018, 03:40:35 PM »

Finally, a dot map:



Lion=blue
Berkovitch=yellow
Deitsch=green
Elkin=orange
Salman=purple
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Hnv1
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« Reply #94 on: November 05, 2018, 08:52:22 AM »

Finally, a dot map:



Lion=blue
Berkovitch=yellow
Deitsch=green
Elkin=orange
Salman=purple
what's with the random Salman dots in East Jerusalem?

Givat Ram dorms have 80% for Meretz+Havilio+Berkovitz
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danny
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« Reply #95 on: November 05, 2018, 09:02:35 AM »


what's with the random Salman dots in East Jerusalem?


I assume people that went to vote for the Arab party and didn't care about mayor, and since Salman is the only one to have his name in Arabic on the ballot went for him.
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danny
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« Reply #96 on: November 13, 2018, 09:17:02 AM »

Did my part and voted Berkovitch, Particularly happy to vote against Lion and his endless bullsh**t spam. Also glad I don't live in one of those places in the US where it takes hours to vote, the whole process took a couple of minutes.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #97 on: November 13, 2018, 04:22:57 PM »

27% counted berkovitc is leading by 52-48. Going to be close. Augusta had the last laugh as their Rabbis told their Hasidic followers to stay home
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Hnv1
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« Reply #98 on: November 13, 2018, 04:48:54 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2018, 04:52:45 PM by Hnv1 »

50% counted Berkovitc with 54.4 Leon with 45.6. It’s pretty much settled then. The Haredi lose of unity just cost them a lot
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danny
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« Reply #99 on: November 13, 2018, 05:10:46 PM »

51.5-48.5 for Berkovitch after 147K votes, and I wouldn't call things quickly in a city like Jerusalem with such disparate populations.
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