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  OH-Triton Research: DeWine +5
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Author Topic: OH-Triton Research: DeWine +5  (Read 955 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: September 21, 2018, 01:24:12 pm »

Mike DeWine (R) 48.6
Richard Cordray (D) 43.9

http://theohiostar.com/2018/09/21/the-ohio-star-poll-dewine-leads-cordray-by-4-in-governors-race-brown-leads-renacci-by-10-in-senate-race/
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2018, 01:26:01 pm »

Yikes, DeWine is pulling away. Get ready for another GOP trifecta next redistricting. This is depressing.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2018, 01:27:09 pm »

So much for President Cordray, lmao.
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2018, 01:29:43 pm »

So much for the gains Dems were gonna make in #Resisting suburbs in Cincy/Columbus. This is what happens when you forget the WWC.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 01:30:18 pm »

2 months left for CORDRAY to catch up
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 01:31:34 pm »

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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2018, 01:32:18 pm »

Not enough time. Ohioans seem to have made up their mind. Not a shock as Dems have shown nothing but contempt for states like this.
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2018, 01:33:24 pm »

This thread is Peak Atlas.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2018, 01:34:33 pm »

I don't get why you guys are going crazy over a single poll from a Republican pollster that is so unknown, I can't even find a 538 rating for them.

Then again, this is Atlas.
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2018, 01:36:04 pm »

I don't get why you guys are going crazy over a single poll from a Republican pollster that is so unknown, I can't even find a 538 rating for them.

Then again, this is Atlas.
If things were really different, we'd see contradictory evidence. I remember when everyone was unskewing all the polls showing Hillary behind all throughout 2016.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2018, 01:56:53 pm »

Not enough time. Ohioans seem to have made up their mind. Not a shock as Dems have shown nothing but contempt for states like this.

Not true, we saw the early vote come in very strong for O'Connor, once the early voting comes in, Cordray will surely catch up, I'm not counting him out by all means
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2018, 02:33:39 pm »

I don't get why you guys are going crazy over a single poll from a Republican pollster that is so unknown, I can't even find a 538 rating for them.

Then again, this is Atlas.
If things were really different, we'd see contradictory evidence. I remember when everyone was unskewing all the polls showing Hillary behind all throughout 2016.

Oh yea, one poll and it's over. I doubt you were saying it was over when Suffolk had Cordray up +7 months ago, yet when a race shows a Republican up, you immediately jump to the conclusion you prefer and start feigning concern over the Democrats and "alienating the rurals/WWC." It's almost like you're trolling in a very concerned fashion or something.   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously, stop spamming this thread your nonsense.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2018, 02:39:25 pm »

Confirms the Baldwin Wallace poll, I guess. President Cordray underperforming Brown by 15 points is not good news for him, to say the least (although I still consider it a Tossup).
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2018, 02:48:33 pm »

Brown isn't gonna win by 10 points, he won against Josh Mandal by six points, the gap will close and so will the gubernatorial election, they just debated.
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2018, 03:06:05 pm »

I have browsed the comments section of the Columbus Dispatch, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, and the Cincinnati Enquirer and my sense is that Cordray is doing well holding his own.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cordray is suffering from a name recognition problem. This name rec was not mentioned in this poll, but in a Baldwin Wallace University LV Poll, only 22% had not heard of DeWine but 47% had not heard of Cordray. That could explain the difference between him and Sherrod Brown. Cordray is not been getting any of the national attention of superstars like Beto O'Rourke.

In other words, this race is not over, Cordray still has a shot, but time is getting short to get his name out there.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2018, 03:07:46 pm »

Evers/Gillum up by 5-6: Toss-Up/Tilt R
DeWine up by 5: Safe R

Got it.

Anyway, not a great poll for Cordray to say the least, and Ohio definitely seems like it's the most like gubernatorial race to hold for the Republicans, but considering other polls have shown a very tight race, I'd still call this a Toss-Up.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2018, 03:11:17 pm »

Polls right now, are meaningless, anyways, its true that Brown is favored, but really 10 on Renacci and Cordray down by five against DeWine, the gaps will narrow, to 6 for Brown and more like 2-3 points for DeWine and then, Dems can go in to finish off DeWine
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Blackacre
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2018, 03:13:17 pm »

Taking a look at all the quality (polls rated B- or higher by 538) polls of Ohio since May, if you include this poll in the mix, the average comes out to Cordray +0.67. If you exclude a partisan PPP poll that gave a Cordray +5 in May, the average becomes DeWine +0.2. This is a toss-up.

Having said that, the relative dearth in quality polling in Ohio is tragic. We need more good polls asap.

edit: excluding this poll and the PPP one gives us Cordray +1. So a tossup no matter how you slice it.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2018, 03:32:54 pm »

Cordray and Sutton isn't performing well in the downstate area like Sherrod Brown, given that Brown is from Akron and Cordray and Sutton perform best in Cleveland metro and DeWine is from CVG.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2018, 12:42:24 am »

This is starting to look like Lean R, honestly. I can't for the life of me understand why.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2018, 01:11:22 am »

This is starting to look like Lean R, honestly. I can't for the life of me understand why.

I just said that CORDRAY and Sutton are from Cleveland metro and Brown is from Akron and DeWine is from Cincinnati. Brown has more downstate appeal being from Akrom
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2018, 01:41:38 am »

Anyone here ever read The Ohio Star? Right wing rag on par with Breitbart. This poll can go straight in the trash.
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2018, 01:50:17 am »

This is starting to look like Lean R, honestly. I can't for the life of me understand why.

I just said that CORDRAY and Sutton are from Cleveland metro and Brown is from Akron and DeWine is from Cincinnati. Brown has more downstate appeal being from Akrom

DeWine is from Dayton area, not Cincinnati. Cordray is from Columbus area (Grove City, specifically.) Sutton is from Akron area. Brown is from Mansfield, spent a lot of time living in Lorain County, and now lives in Cleveland. You have no idea what you're talking about so spare us your "analysis."
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2018, 04:08:44 am »

Brown is winning downstate than Cordray is.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2018, 01:46:27 pm »

Brown is winning downstate than Cordray is.


Well duh he’s an incumbent


If he wasn’t an incumbent he probably loses as well
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