For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections
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  For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections
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Author Topic: For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections  (Read 14381 times)
Intell
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2018, 11:33:38 PM »

Trump wins 2020, progressive democrat wins landslide in 2024 winning reelection in 2028 and Democrats win in 2032 and 2036. Moderate republican wins in 2042.
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Person Man
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2018, 01:57:53 PM »

Crazy idea-

2020- Trump is reelected in a landslide when he gets to 51% PV and the rest of the vote is evenly split between the Democrats and the Progressive Centrist American Alliance.

2024 - After the repeal of much of the New Deal, Great Society, and most constitutional civil rights and a major non-responsive recession, the Progressive Centrist American Alliance wins the presidency as
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2018, 10:20:53 PM »

Just for fun Smiley

2020: Democrat win



2024: Democrat wins second term



2028: Republican win



2032: Republican wins second term



2036: Democrat win



2040: Democrat wins second term

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nerd73
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« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2018, 02:50:24 AM »

2020:


Democrat Eric Swalwell narrowly unseats incumbent President Trump.

2024:

After an insurrection starts as a result of Swalwell's mandatory gun confiscations, most of the heartland is nuked to stop the insurrection. He loses the following Presidential election in a landslide to a generic Republican.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2019, 02:25:25 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2019, 10:59:17 PM by Anarcho-Statism »

2020



President Donald John Trump (R-NY) / Vice President Michael Richard "Mike" Pence (R-IN) ✓
Senator Elizabeth Ann Warren (D-MA) / Mayor Peter Paul Montgomery "Pete" Buttigieg (D-IN)

Warren pulls off a narrow victory against Biden, Sanders, and Harris in the primaries by nailing down the white vote. She's a poor debater, does poorly with minorities, invests her resources in the wrong places, and ultimately loses a close one. There are some recounts.

2024



Senator Richard Lynn "Rick" Scott (R-FL) / Fmr. Governor Kristi Lynn Noem (R-SD)
Congressman Ruben Marinelarena Gallego (D-AZ) / Governor Gretchen Esther Whitmer (D-MI) ✓

A bad recession hits early in the 2020s. Vice President Pence declines to run, and a "catch-all" political opportunist beats a number of more ideological candidates in the primaries. Ben Shapiro runs just to get a show on Fox News but does surprisingly well. A young, activist Democrat elected to statewide office in the Sun Belt in 2020 wins on a populist platform involving marijuana legalization, lower university costs, withdrawing from Afghanistan, a Year 2000 Rollback on gun rights, universal Pre-K, and putting hardline social liberals in cabinet positions.

2028



President Ruben Marinelarena Gallego (D-AZ) / Vice President Gretchen Esther Whitmer (D-MI) ✓
Fmr. Governor Ronald Dion "Ron" DeSantis (R-FL) / Senator Randal Howard "Rand" Paul (R-KY)
Fmr. Ambassador to Russia Jon Meade Huntsman, Jr. (I-UT) / Some Moderate Ex-Democrat

A flu pandemic slows economic recovery and gives the border control movement a boost early in the President's administration. Republicans sweep Congress in 2026. Tensions mount with Russia as the Republicans split in the primaries over foreign policy and economics. Ron DeSantis runs as a 2016 Trump imitator, calling for isolationism and a strange Jacksonian kind of post-partisanship. He ends up being a terrible candidate. A third party further splits the Republican vote.

2032



Vice President Gretchen Esther Whitmer (D-MI) / House Minority Whip Cedric Levon Richmond (D-LA) ✓
Senator Daniel Reed "Dan" Crenshaw (R-TX) / Some Republican Governor of an Oil State

Sun spots start disappearing, ending a period of relative calm in the climate, and a category five hurricane hits New Orleans. New Orleans native and old Biden ally Cedric Richmond is praised for his response, and joins the Vice President in the race. Domestic oil is attacked, and the Republicans put forth an ex-military, pro-oil tough guy. By now, a second fracking boom has made the Dakotas much more significant and brought economic prosperity after an unstable decade. The Republican reunites the party but loses in a close one. Like DeSantis, turns out to be surprisingly unlikable.

2036



President Gretchen Esther Whitmer (D-MI) / Vice President Cedric Levon Richmond (D-LA)
Senator Nicholas James "Nick" Freitas (R-VA) / Fmr. Governor Glenn Allen Hegar, Jr. (R-TX) ✓

The President and Vice President infamously clash on gun rights, once again dividing the Democrats. The issue becomes divided on race and lots of well-to-do white Democrats walk out to join the Republicans. The GOP nominates a libertarian, socially liberal and fiscally conservative, who appeals to many new liberal Republicans.

2040



President Nicholas James "Nick" Freitas (R-VA) / Vice President Glenn Allen Hegar, Jr. (R-TX) ✓
Fmr. Vice President Cedric Levon Richmond (D-LA) / Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)

The economy hiccups but prosperity continues. Richmond comes back and loses. His running mate accidentally offends Mexican-American voters and suppresses their turnout.

Extra: 2044



Some Midwestern Republican / Some Western Liberal Republican
Some Texan Latino Democrat / Some Northern Progressive Democrat ✓

Operations against Neo-Soviet rebels in wartorn Russia are successful. However, by now, the recession has become a full-blown depression. Automation has put millions out of work, preventing them from paying their debts. Municipalities go bankrupt. If it hasn't already, social security has failed. The credit bubble can no longer be inflated. The President leaves office with a Democratic congress and a fairly untarnished reputation. Both parties share the blame. New ideologies are solidifying: the Republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility, modernization, social libertarianism, and deregulation who want to stay the course with automation, and the Democrats are a more populist party built on racial minorities and community values. Unlike the first Great Depression, both philosophies are popular and are clearly divided on race.

Progressives in places like Massachusetts and a Rojava-inspired renewed Detroit stay with the Democrats. Vermont is ancestrally Democratic and due to be Republican by the 2050s, and Mississippi and Louisiana will very quickly go solid Democrat at the same time. Arm-chair election enthusiasts see South Carolina and Alabama going solid Democrat in the 2070s once Republican millennials there start dying off, and believe that the rest of the northeast will go the opposite way.
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2019, 05:38:03 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 05:43:39 PM by omelott »

2020
President Donald Trump (R-NY) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Former State Representative Stacey Abrams (D-GA)



2024
Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓
President Mike Pence (R-IN) / Vice President Nikki Haley (R-SC)




2028
President Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) / Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-CA)



2032
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Senator Joaquin Castro (D-TX) ✓
Former Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD) / Representative Rodney Davis (R-IL)



2036
Governor Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) / Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) ✓
President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)



2040
President Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) / Vice President Josh Hawley (R-MO) ✓
Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA) / Representative Cedric Richmond (D-LA)



2044 (Extra)
Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) / Governor Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) ✓
Vice President Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Governor Elise Stefanik (R-NY)


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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2019, 08:06:02 AM »

If the impeachment is done the right way, then a realignment election, with TX voting Dem will happen in 2020
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AGA
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« Reply #32 on: March 04, 2020, 07:52:02 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2020, 07:57:18 PM by AGA »

Not commentating or anything because I'm lazy.

2020



2024



2028



2032



2036



2040

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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #33 on: April 23, 2020, 09:40:02 AM »

2020: Joe Biden defeats President Trump due to a recession that only starts to improve by September 2020.  It's close, but not enough.



2024: President Biden declines to run for a 2nd term as he'd be 82, Vice president Kamala Harris easily wins the nomination and chooses HUD Secretary and former mayor Pete Buttigieg as VP.  As Trump lost, the GOP establishment try to find a safe establishment choice and Pence is dissuaded from running.  Even though Cruz, Paul and Rubio run, Former Ambassador/Governor Nikki Haley is nominated and chooses Rep. Dan Crenshaw as her running mate. 

As GOP enthusiasm is fairly low and the economy is good, Harris/Buttigieg easily win.  Texas is decided by under 0.5%.







2028: A recession hits in 2027 and China has become increasingly aggressive geopolitically over the Biden-Harris administrations, and the Democratic party is split between the neo-Liberals, and the far left, led by Senator Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (who threatens to challenge Harris for the nomination but backs off) .  Anger towards the establishment GOP and China's aggression allows the nationalist-Populist wing to grow strong enough to become the dominant party force, led by Tucker Carlson and Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.  The GOP also started moving left on economic issues.  Sen. Tom Cotton/Sen. John James easily defeats Harris/Buttigieg.




2032:  Despite intraparty warring in the GOP, President Cotton's first term oversees peace and steady economic growth.  His tough on crime policies and hawkishness are somewhat controversial, however.  The AOC-led wing of the Democratic party becomes the dominant force in the party, and she is an early frontrunner and secures the nomination fairly easily (although former HUD Sec. Buttigieg puts up a strong showing).  Although it's very close, moderate voters are turned off by the GND and give President Cotton a narrow victory.



2036: Cotton's tariff's and threats of nationalization harms the economy, and his approval drops below 40%.  VP John James runs unopposed as most GOPers think the election is a lost cause.  Sec. Buttigieg wins the Dem nomination and selects Senator Occasio-Cortez as VP.  It's a strong ticket and a landslide win.




Bonus: 2040 sees a Hispanic, pro business Rep. shake up the map.





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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #34 on: April 23, 2020, 10:41:38 AM »

No.
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clever but short
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« Reply #35 on: April 23, 2020, 11:09:01 AM »

2020: Joe Biden defeats President Trump due to a recession that only starts to improve by September 2020.  It's close, but not enough.



2024: President Biden declines to run for a 2nd term as he'd be 82, Vice president Kamala Harris easily wins the nomination and chooses HUD Secretary and former mayor Pete Buttigieg as VP.  As Trump lost, the GOP establishment try to find a safe establishment choice and Pence is dissuaded from running.  Even though Cruz, Paul and Rubio run, Former Ambassador/Governor Nikki Haley is nominated and chooses Rep. Dan Crenshaw as her running mate. 

As GOP enthusiasm is fairly low and the economy is good, Harris/Buttigieg easily win.  Texas is decided by under 0.5%.







2028: A recession hits in 2027 and China has become increasingly aggressive geopolitically over the Biden-Harris administrations, and the Democratic party is split between the neo-Liberals, and the far left, led by Senator Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (who threatens to challenge Harris for the nomination but backs off) .  Anger towards the establishment GOP and China's aggression allows the nationalist-Populist wing to grow strong enough to become the dominant party force, led by Tucker Carlson and Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.  The GOP also started moving left on economic issues.  Sen. Tom Cotton/Sen. John James easily defeats Harris/Buttigieg.




2032:  Despite intraparty warring in the GOP, President Cotton's first term oversees peace and steady economic growth.  His tough on crime policies and hawkishness are somewhat controversial, however.  The AOC-led wing of the Democratic party becomes the dominant force in the party, and she is an early frontrunner and secures the nomination fairly easily (although former HUD Sec. Buttigieg puts up a strong showing).  Although it's very close, moderate voters are turned off by the GND and give President Cotton a narrow victory.



2036: Cotton's tariff's and threats of nationalization harms the economy, and his approval drops below 40%.  VP John James runs unopposed as most GOPers think the election is a lost cause.  Sec. Buttigieg wins the Dem nomination and selects Senator Occasio-Cortez as VP.  It's a strong ticket and a landslide win.




Bonus: 2040 sees a Hispanic, pro business Rep. shake up the map.







The only thing really eye-brow raising to me here is West Virginia
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #36 on: April 26, 2020, 11:43:04 PM »

2020: Joe Biden defeats President Trump due to a recession that only starts to improve by September 2020.  It's close, but not enough.



2024: President Biden declines to run for a 2nd term as he'd be 82, Vice president Kamala Harris easily wins the nomination and chooses HUD Secretary and former mayor Pete Buttigieg as VP.  As Trump lost, the GOP establishment try to find a safe establishment choice and Pence is dissuaded from running.  Even though Cruz, Paul and Rubio run, Former Ambassador/Governor Nikki Haley is nominated and chooses Rep. Dan Crenshaw as her running mate. 

As GOP enthusiasm is fairly low and the economy is good, Harris/Buttigieg easily win.  Texas is decided by under 0.5%.







2028: A recession hits in 2027 and China has become increasingly aggressive geopolitically over the Biden-Harris administrations, and the Democratic party is split between the neo-Liberals, and the far left, led by Senator Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (who threatens to challenge Harris for the nomination but backs off) .  Anger towards the establishment GOP and China's aggression allows the nationalist-Populist wing to grow strong enough to become the dominant party force, led by Tucker Carlson and Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.  The GOP also started moving left on economic issues.  Sen. Tom Cotton/Sen. John James easily defeats Harris/Buttigieg.




2032:  Despite intraparty warring in the GOP, President Cotton's first term oversees peace and steady economic growth.  His tough on crime policies and hawkishness are somewhat controversial, however.  The AOC-led wing of the Democratic party becomes the dominant force in the party, and she is an early frontrunner and secures the nomination fairly easily (although former HUD Sec. Buttigieg puts up a strong showing).  Although it's very close, moderate voters are turned off by the GND and give President Cotton a narrow victory.



2036: Cotton's tariff's and threats of nationalization harms the economy, and his approval drops below 40%.  VP John James runs unopposed as most GOPers think the election is a lost cause.  Sec. Buttigieg wins the Dem nomination and selects Senator Occasio-Cortez as VP.  It's a strong ticket and a landslide win.




Bonus: 2040 sees a Hispanic, pro business Rep. shake up the map.







A few nitpicks.

1. Why would Crenshaw be the VP nominee in 2024? You mentioned Cruz ran for president, so he’d probably have to give up his Senate seat, and Crenshaw seems destined to run in that scenario.
2. How is John James a Senator? If Biden is wining I can’t see him beat Peters, and he probably won’t get a third chance afterwards.
3.  How did AOC become a Senator? I can’t imagine her winning a primary against neither Schumer nor Gillibrand.
4. A Hispanic pro-Business Republican? Sounds like Sen. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH).
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #37 on: April 27, 2020, 06:53:49 AM »



A few nitpicks.

1. Why would Crenshaw be the VP nominee in 2024? You mentioned Cruz ran for president, so he’d probably have to give up his Senate seat, and Crenshaw seems destined to run in that scenario.
2. How is John James a Senator? If Biden is wining I can’t see him beat Peters, and he probably won’t get a third chance afterwards.
3.  How did AOC become a Senator? I can’t imagine her winning a primary against neither Schumer nor Gillibrand.
4. A Hispanic pro-Business Republican? Sounds like Sen. Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH).

Ted Cruz isn't that popular, and the GOP/Haley would try to hold on to Texas with Crenshaw, who the conservative/Trumpy base likes and is less polarizing than Cruz.  Also, It's tough to envision Cruz winning a third term in 2024.

I assumed James ran and won in 2024, but that doesn't mesh well with the Harris/Buttigieg landslide, so it's an inconsistency on my part.  And true, Biden winning would mean that Peters holds on.  I tried to think of a Trumpy GOP senator from the midwest.

Schumer retires, and the progressive faction grows over 8 years of Biden-Harris.  AOC is the obvious star of the left once Bernie retires in 2024.

As far as 2040, this was too far into the future to consider any current names aside from Buttigieg/AOC,  and I wanted to see a scenario where the GOP snaps back to pro-business classical liberalism.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2020, 03:31:01 PM »

A flu pandemic slows economic recovery and gives the border control movement a boost

*"That's So Raven" theme plays*

Subtract points for guessing the wrong virus and being a few years off, bonus points for predicting it would boost xenophobia.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #39 on: September 24, 2020, 01:05:45 PM »

A flu pandemic slows economic recovery and gives the border control movement a boost

*"That's So Raven" theme plays*

Subtract points for guessing the wrong virus and being a few years off, bonus points for predicting it would boost xenophobia.

Well it hasn't exactly boosted the border control movement though, at least in so much as border control is double-speak for "keep the Mexicans away". East Asians on the other hand...
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2020, 01:24:37 PM »

A flu pandemic slows economic recovery and gives the border control movement a boost

*"That's So Raven" theme plays*

Subtract points for guessing the wrong virus and being a few years off, bonus points for predicting it would boost xenophobia.

Well it hasn't exactly boosted the border control movement though, at least in so much as border control is double-speak for "keep the Mexicans away". East Asians on the other hand...

And that's true. I don't know if I had this in the write-up but I expected the virus to spike up in Latin America and for the xenophobia to be directed at the "carriers", so it still counts as a blurry snapshot. Regardless, this is exactly why I try a multidisciplinary approach when predicting the future. It's always a crapshoot but this makes it more of a science.

If I was even remotely good at math I'd be an actuary. XD
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #41 on: September 24, 2020, 01:28:58 PM »

A flu pandemic slows economic recovery and gives the border control movement a boost

*"That's So Raven" theme plays*

Subtract points for guessing the wrong virus and being a few years off, bonus points for predicting it would boost xenophobia.

Well it hasn't exactly boosted the border control movement though, at least in so much as border control is double-speak for "keep the Mexicans away". East Asians on the other hand...

And that's true. I don't know if I had this in the write-up but I expected the virus to spike up in Latin America and for the xenophobia to be directed at the "carriers", so it still counts as a blurry snapshot. Regardless, this is exactly why I try a multidisciplinary approach when predicting the future. It's always a crapshoot but this makes it more of a science.

If I was even remotely good at math I'd be an actuary. XD

Good points.

You are talking to someone who is remotely good at math lol although my university career is being a bit rocky.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2020, 03:26:27 PM »

Skipping the maps:

2020: Biden defeats Trump in a decisive, if not landslide, victory.

2024: VP Harris is nominated after Biden retires after one term and goes on to defeat former VP Pence by a comfortable margin.

2028:  President Harris defeats former FL Governor Ron DeSantis.

2032: Harris' VP is defeated by a currently unknown moderate Republican Senator or Governor elected sometime in the 2020's.

2036: Incumbent Republican president is reelected.

2040:  Currently unknown Democrat is elected.
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Samof94
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« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2020, 06:56:37 AM »

In the “2030’s is the 1990’s timeline”, is there a 2034 Landslide for the Dems akin to 1994 for the GOP?
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« Reply #44 on: September 28, 2020, 07:39:15 AM »

Skipping the maps:

2020: Biden defeats Trump in a decisive, if not landslide, victory.

2024: VP Harris is nominated after Biden retires after one term and goes on to defeat former VP Pence by a comfortable margin.

2028:  President Harris defeats former FL Governor Ron DeSantis.

2032: Harris' VP is defeated by a currently unknown moderate Republican Senator or Governor elected sometime in the 2020's.

2036: Incumbent Republican president is reelected.

2040:  Currently unknown Democrat is elected.

pretty much this
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #45 on: September 29, 2020, 07:03:07 PM »

2020



Biden/Harris 51% 325 EV
Trump/Pence 45% 213 EV

2024



Carlson/Hawley 49% 305ish EV
Harris/Polis 48% 233ish EV

2028



Carlson/Hawley 51% 345ish EV
Duckworth/Warnock 47% 213ish EV

2032



Dwayne Johnson/D Governor of Texas 290ish EV 47.5%
Hawley/R Governor of PA 248ish EV 48.5%

2036



Dwayne Johnson/Former D Governor of Texas 400ish EV 55%
R Senator from Michigan/R Governor of Tennessee 138ish EV 44%



VP (Former D Governor of Texas)/D Governor of NC 300ish EV 50%
R Businessman from Maine/R Senator from Florida 238ish 48%

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« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2020, 07:40:48 AM »

Anyone want to make midterm maps?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2020, 10:10:08 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 08:49:10 AM by MillennialModerate »

2020: Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump

The race tightens DRAMATICALLY. Sending chicken little posters like MM, into the fetal position. However Biden squeaks it out. Barely. Winning the popular vote by 5 points.

Senate: 51/49 GOP
House: Dems 237-197



———————————————
2022:

Senate: 52/48 GOP
House: Dems 225-209

———————————————


2024: Kamla Harris vs normal Republican

Harris seems a lock for election but the economy that took off like a rocket ship in 2021 seems to fall through the floor at an equally fast rate

Senate: 54/46 GOP
House: Dems 230-205




———————————————
2026:

Senate: 50/50 GOP
House: Dems 225-209


——————————————

2028: GOP President wins re-election  





Senate: 52/48 GOP
House:  220-215 GOP

———————————————
2030:

Senate: 50/50 GOP
House:  220-215 Dem

———————————————

2032: Classic Center Left Dem (JK3?!)  defeats sitting VP in largest landslide since 84



Senate: 56-44 Dem
House: Dems 260-175

———————————————
2034:

Senate: 57-43 Dem
House:  247-188 Dem

———————————————


2036: Dem POTUS  wins re-election easily against a charismatic yet definitively right wing GOP nominee



Senate: 58/42 Dem
House: Dems 249-186

———————————————
2038:

Senate: 53/47 Dem
House: 230-205 Dem

———————————————


2040: Sitting VP upset in primaries, perot-esque third party canidate thought to be a spoiler for Dems but splits right leaning independent votes instead and ends third term curse as far-left Dem wins



Senate: 50-50 Dem
House:  227-208 Dem

———————————————
2042:

Senate: 54-46 GOP
House: 250-185 GOP

———————————————
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« Reply #48 on: October 11, 2020, 01:59:43 AM »

Joe Kennedy defeats sitting VP in largest landslide since 84

Gretchen, stop trying to make Joe Kennedy happen. It's not going to happen.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #49 on: October 11, 2020, 03:37:12 PM »

I don't know that I would agree with the sentiment that Harris would lose in 2024 unless Biden turns out to be unpopular. Especially as I expect the GOP nominee to be either a full blown Trumpist or was someone damaged in the primary by the need to appeal to that wing ala Romney in '12.

I think she would be more vulnerable in 2028 as an incumbent President as she would be running for a third consecutive Democratic term.
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