For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I can see Republicans getting 3 terms under this scenario(Ignore the Shading and the EV numbers in each state)


2020:

A Democrat narrowly defeats Trump despite a good economy, mainly due to Trump's unpopularity. Democrats also take the Senate(by winning AZ ,CO and NC while losing AL) and keep the House(Which they won in 2018).


2024:

The Economy goes into a recession into 2022 similar to the one in the early 1990s and that causes the party to break out into civil war between the Bernie and Establishment wings once again. The Republican nominee is a Center Right Republican(Like Nikki Haley) who is more moderate on the issue of immigration and the bad economy and a divided democratic party allows the Republicans to win big.


2028:

A Booming Economy allows the Republican candidate to win big again


2032:

The Democrats nominate a Moderate Governor from the Southwest but the Booming Economy and the Popular Incumbent President campaigning extensively for their Vice President who is the nominee(unlike 1960 and 2000) gives them a narrow victory


2036:

A Bad Economy(goes into recession in 2033 or 2034) and a divided GOP allow the Democrat who is popular South East Governor to win big


2040:

A Booming economy and a lackluster Republican candidate allows the Dem to easily win including winning Ohio by a pretty narrow margin

I can’t see Texas voting R in all 6 elections.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

2040

There are cracks in the Democrats' big tent, and even more climate refugees from South Asia and Central Africa, but Democrat policies remain popular enough for the incumbent VP to win. Republicans push hard in perma-Purple Texas but also make some breakthroughs in the Northeast...

...Nativists remain a big part of the [R] coalition, but a muffled one as they were pre-2010: by this point, voting blocs are a lot fuzzier with the country being majority-minority and more mixed race.

I wonder where in the US said subcontinental and Sub-Saharan refugees would be most likely to settle and what if any electoral impact they'd have.

2036



President Bee Nguyen (D-GA) / Vice President Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) - 270 EV / 49% PV
Republican Candidate (R-?? / Republican Candidate (R-??) - 268 EV / 50% PV

Nguyen wins narrowly re-election due to a good economy and a competent response to the Social Security Crisis and Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But Republicans were able to put up a good fight by emphasizing the rising crime rate and surge of illegal immigration.  

This is the first time that the Republicans have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college.

Not sure if this would be the most probable map in a split PV-EC scenario but what a based Governor Bee Nguyen timeline. Weird that Dems do better in the PV in 2040 despite both NV and VA flipping R.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

2024:



2028:



2032:

I'd still prefer Kamala beating Ronny D in 2024 but seeing her win in 2028 without being an incumbent is pretty heartening. Funny how Kamala wins the EC by even more than Dark Brandon does in 2024, who still does better in his reelection bid than against Don Giovanni.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

2036

Senator Michelle Wu (D-MA) / Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) - 347 EV ✓
Vice President Katie Britt (R-AL) / Senator Mike Gallagher (R-WI) - 191 EV





2040

President Michelle Wu (D-MA) / Vice President Jon Ossoff (D-GA) - 475 EV ✓
Governor Niraj Antani (R-OH) / Senator Kat Cammack (R-FL) - 63 EV

Forumlurker161 "D non-Subcontinental AAPI vs R Subcontinental AAPI" trends-motivated matchup

My only real gripe with this Michelle Wu fanfic is OR losing its 6th congressional district after 2030.