GA-Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group(D)- Abrams+6

[Rookie Yinzer]

The final result will be 51-47-2 Abrams

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think is Abrams is already over 50...but Kemp is somewhere around 46-47.

In short, I don't think are that many undecided voters left.

Correct. Republicans have been spending millions throwing punches that aren’t landing. Abrams is racking up thousands of votes as we speak through her VBM initiative and booming population centers are itching to go to the polls for her. Abrams is running the biggest field operation in this state’s history. I plan to move this to Tilt D once we start getting absentee and early vote numbers.

[Rookie Yinzer]

God a gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is going to be a nasty, expensive fight. Kemp will no doubt go nuclear with toxic ads and probably dirty tricks, while massive amounts of cash are airlifted into the state by hyper-excited Democratic activists and depressed Republican billionaires eager to win something after licking their wounds from November 6th.

I feel good about an Abrams win in a runoff though. Democrats have excelled in lower-turnout elections so far, and since this isn't a presidential election, I don't think a big win by Democrats in the GE is going to suck the air out of the wave. Trump will still be in office, and he'll still be pissing off voters big time. The question is whether Georgia is ripe enough to send a Democrat to the govs mansion.

Fortunately Abrams will win outright on November 6. I think she's going to clear 1.4 million and Kemp will do a tad worse than the 1.34 million Deal got in 2014.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nothing matters if Abrams can't get above 50%.

Why? I hear people say this a lot but Georgia has never had a gubernatorial runoff and people seem to be extrapolating an awful lot from a couple of senate runoffs, one of the old atlas things that southern undecided voters always go GOP was defeated last year, wonder if runoffs in Georgia always = gop wins will be the next?

Ignore the noise. Abrams is literally running a campaign that has never been ran in Georgia with an electorate that has never existed in Georgia. Whatever happened in the 90’s or with Jim Martin is really irrelevant.