Shock result: the authoritarian and Islamist-aligned
Abdulla Yameen has been defeated by the
Democratic Party's (MDP) Ibrahim Muhammed Solih (known popularly as
Ibu), a surprising yet not unforeseeable turn of events for a leader whose term in office has been defined by political crises and geopolitical intrigue.
For three decades (1978-2008) the tropical country was led by strongman
Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who - attempting to shore up his power - tested his luck with an actually real election. Despite being arrested several times during the 2008 election, longtime activist
Muhammad Nasheed ended up on top, capitalising on years of resentment over the regime's corruption with a broad coalition of opposition groups (the
Watan Edey coalition). Nasheed was a born politician: a very good people person, somebody who spoke about things like universal healthcare, a right to housing and all such things (if you want, you can trawl through the archives and find a million people calling him the Maldives' Obama, because it was 2008); he has to this day a very strong personality cult among his fans for his approachable style, very distinct from the quasi-aristocratic mannerisms of Gayoom. Nasheed's time in office also won a lot of international acclaim (e.g. his activism around climate change, which landed him a starring (and hagiographic) role in the Oscar-winning documentary "The Island President". There's also this excerpt from his Wikipedia page which made me laugh:
(
Hangover writers: please get on this plot)
Despite this ringing endorsement, the MDP never had a majority (or a plurality) of seats, and Nasheed gradually lost his erstwhile allies, as well as having his agenda/appointments stalled constantly. The situation escalated in 2011, with an increasingly rash Nasheed ordering the arrest of a prominent Islamist for slander on his person (the Islamists all believe he is "laadheenee"), then arresting the
judgewho freed that Islamist; causing a wave of protests (joined by the police) that resulted in Nasheed being forced to resign at gunpoint and hand power over to his VP
Dr Mohammed Waheed Hassan, a former diplomat who led a disastrous 18 month period where he was despised and considered illegitimate by all relevant forces as the country became overwhelmed by economic issues and a collapse in foreign investment: his own chief adviser called him "the weakest man in the Maldives".
In 2013, an election was called, annulled and then reran. Predictably, Dr Hassan scored a hilariously awful fourth place with 5% of the vote (despite being backed by Gayoom's former party the
Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party, now an indebted shell of its former self), not even bothering to try in the second race. The Islamists, led by the
Jumhooree Party (Republicans,
JP) with support from the
Adhaalath Party (
AP) and the
Dhivehi Qaumee Party (the party led by the aforementioned chief adviser who called Dr Hassan weak) scored around 24% on both elections. Nasheed, still running for the MDP, scored 45% in the first round, then 47% in the latter. Unfortunately for him, the run-off saw the entire opposition coalesce around the new candidate
Abdulla Yameen, the candidate of Gayoom's new outfit the
Progressive Party (and also Gayoom's half-brother).
Yameen's Presidency has been a curious beast. On the one hand, he did manage to solve the problem of foreign investment: securing large investments from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, by making it easier for foreigners to buy land and business. As you can imagine, this has not gone unnoticed by some Maldivians (who often resent the "colonialism) nor by the international community (India especially has gone very cold on the archipelago, going back to when Dr Hassan cancelled a contract with an Indian owned construction company to build Male's airport, but escalating throughout the Yameen's rule). It would not be hyperbole to say that Yameen and his allies = China's guy; Nasheed and his allies = the EU, India and the United States' guy).
Anyway, one of the defining feature's of Yameen's rule is an intense authoritarinism. Essentially every person that has crossed him: the exiled Nasheed, his own half-brother and mentor Gayoom, his own Vice-President
Ahmed Adeeb (who was accused of trying to assassinate him),
Gasim Ibrahim of the Jamhooree Party (the richest man in the country), the leader of the Adhaalath Party, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (among others) were all convicted or arrested on the President's orders, much of them during a "state of emergency" that erupted when the Supreme Court ordered the conviction on Nasheed by quashed. Legislators from his own party that crossed him were swiftly booted from their seats. There has also been a lot of talk about a resurgence in corruption, as well as a slight, um, curious allegation from the Islamist Adhaalath Party that the President sacrificed a crocodile in honour of Satan to win the 2013 election (as you do: despite the recent popularity of Salafism which frowns upon such nonsense, certain practitioners of sorcery are allowed if they are specially licensed).
Anywho, despite a lot of vote-tampering, little international oversight and attempts to intimidate the opposition (including the detainment of Ibu himself, and the ransacking of the MDP headquarters by the police); Yameen has apparantly been ousted, only winning 96,132 votes to Ibu's 134,616. (they previously bragged that they would probably get over 70%, lmao). Ibu is a longterm lawmaker and friend of Nasheed's, and largely seen as a non-corrupt nice guy, who managed to stay enough out of trouble that he wasn't forced into exile in Sri Lanka like many other MDP figures. Whether that will be enough to manage three established egos - Nasheed, Gasim and Gayood, all of which have personally backed him to get their convictions quashed, and presumably want a portion of the pie of power, is yet to be seen (you also have the constant conflicts between the largely secular MDP and the more Islamist aligned JP/AP/Gayood's faction of the Progressives). As for Yameen, it is highly likely (unless he backs down and refuses to accept the results) that he will be charged with corruption and murder, unless he flees the country.
