What was the last election democrats won more counties

[morgankingsley]

I am sure it was either 1964 or 1976, but I can't find any statistics on 1976. I wonder also what the last election was when a losing Democratic candidate got more countries

[RINO Tom]

The answer in this thread seems correct: Carter over Ford, 1,711 - 1,403.

A large majority of Carter's counties came from the South: Nearly 10% were from Georgia's 159 alone, with at least another 1,000 coming out of the others.

Yeah, was going to predict that 1976 was extremely close with a narrow Ford win, but I underestimated how many tiny little Georgia counties there were - all of which Carter won.

[Vosem]

Which means that universal swing to a Ford win probably leaves more counties in Carter's hands than Ford's, making 1976 probably the last time that a neutral map nationally leaves more counties in Democratic hands than Republican ones (though 1980 may also fit this criteria).

What election was the actual last time Democrats won more counties, but Republicans won anyway? One of the McKinley races?

[morgankingsley]

Yeah I would assume it was a McKinley race, probably 1896

[Averroës Nix]

Elections in which the PV or EV loser won a majority of counties:

2016: Trump (PV only) (2,623-489 - this is the most lopsided county win for a candidate losing either the PV or the EV, and by a wide margin)
2012: Romney (2,420-693)
2008: McCain (2,238-875)
2000: Bush II (PV only) (2,397-659)
1996: Dole (1,587-1,526)
1992: Bush I (1,582-1,519-15)
1960: Nixon (1,857-1,200-71-1)
1896: Bryan (1,559-1363-?)
1888: Cleveland (EV only) (1,290-1,157-2-1)
1880: Hancock (1,242-1,061-9-6-1-1)
1876: Tilden (EV only, and not really even that) (1,301-947-1)
1860: Breckinridge (663-557-355-256-37-2-1)
1848: Cass (753-676-31-4)
1824: Jackson (EV only, obviously this is a weird case)

None of these are close enough for ambiguous county equivalent definitions in places like Alaska or Virginia to make a difference.


Other interesting notes:

1968 was the last election in which a third candidate came close to eclipsing either major party: Of the 3,130 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Nixon won in 1,859 (59.39%) while Humphrey carried 693 (22.14%). Wallace was victorious in 578 counties (18.47%).

Since Truman, Carter (1976) and LBJ (1964) are the only two Democrats to win a majority of counties. Clinton, another Southerner, is the only other Democrat to even make the tally close.

McGovern (1972) won only 135 county equivalents. Mondale (1984) won only 334. Dukakis (1988) won 820.

WJB kept the county contest close in both 1900 and 1908: He lost to McKinley, 1,385-1,340 and to Taft 1,494-1,355.

Between Reconstruction and Civil Rights, the low point for Democratic county wins appears to be Al Smith (1928), who won 914 counties against Hoover's landslide victory. Almost all pre-Nixon Democrats won more counties in the ex-Confederate states alone than were won nationally by almost all post-Nixon Democrats! Even Horace Greeley (1872) won 833 counties - 38% of those that recorded votes - from beyond the grave.

[morgankingsley]

I had no idea Breckenridge won the most. I thought it would be Douglas

[Vosem]

Should be noted that Horace Greeley was in fact still alive on Election Day 1872. He died between the election and the casting of votes by the Electoral College, which is why his votes ended up scattering (though mostly going to Thomas Hendricks in states he won as a Democrat and to Benjamin Gratz Brown in states he won as a Liberal Republican) rather than the opposition to Grant scrambling to find a new unified oppositionist candidate.

[Adam Griffin]

It's worth noting that Clinton came pretty close in 1992.

From some back of the napkin calculations:

1600 Bush (50.97%)
1522 Clinton (48.49%)
16 Perot (0.51%)
1 Tied (0.03%)