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  MT-SEN (Gravis): Tester + 4
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Author Topic: MT-SEN (Gravis): Tester + 4  (Read 1160 times)
2016
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« on: September 25, 2018, 08:46:36 am »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_September_25_2018.pdf

Same Poll has Gianforte + 9 over Williams

This Race has tightened up considerably.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:00 am »

This isn't gonna be easy, it's a pure tossup now
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:09 am »

Might be surprising, but Im not going to take this poll rather seriously. There is just...something about this poll that makes me want to trash it. I cant think of what it is, but its there. Its almost like I can sense its presence.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 08:49:39 am »

Might be surprising, but Im not going to take this poll rather seriously. There is just...something about this poll that makes me want to trash it. I cant think of what it is, but its there. Its almost like I can sense its presence.

Does it start with a G and end with an S?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 08:51:33 am »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 08:54:45 am »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. Itís better than their last poll, but thatís a very low bar.
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 08:56:43 am »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. Itís better than their last poll, but thatís a very low bar.

I donít believe 17% of Democrats voting for Greg Gianforte for a second, but itís Gravis so I shouldnít expect much.
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 08:59:20 am »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 09:02:29 am »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

This is high quality analysis
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 09:05:14 am »

Daines won his race big, and Foxx is gonna be Gov. I know 2016, was Clinton's fault but Tester failed to get the Dems the Majority
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2018, 09:09:25 am »

>GRAVIS
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2018, 09:16:50 am »

Despite the believable toplines for both races... itís Gravis, guys
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2018, 09:27:39 am »

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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2018, 09:28:19 am »

Junk with believable numbers. Hmmmm...
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2018, 09:33:34 am »

g r a v i s

but this is at least somewhat believable, except the house result. Still gonna take it with a grain of salt.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2018, 09:39:23 am »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

You ever heard of Steve Bullock and his electoral history?

MT is an elastic state in down-ballot races and Tester a popular incumbent running for reelection in a favorable environment against a low-profile challenger. Tester is safer than Nelson, Heitkamp or McCaskill.
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2018, 09:56:18 am »

Lean D race is Lean D.
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2018, 10:05:43 am »

WHAT'S EVERYONE COMPLAINING BOUT?! Tester by 4 is a decent result for us, and sounds realistic.
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2018, 10:06:19 am »

MT-AL results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_September_25_2018.pdf

Anyway, a MT Democrat winning by 4?! When has that ever happened before? Tongue The Senate numbers are believable, the House numbers... less so. Itís better than their last poll, but thatís a very low bar.

I donít believe 17% of Democrats voting for Greg Gianforte for a second, but itís Gravis so I shouldnít expect much.

Their crosstabs can be very weird, I honestly wouldnít pay any attention to them. But yeah, I know this forum is convinced that Montana is the most elaaaaaaaastic state in the country, but Iíd be very surprised if Gianforte did 13 points better than Rosendale. Obviously there will be no shortage of Tester/Gianforte voters (and letís be honest here: Williams' first name doesnít help), but Gianforte, while not an extremely weak incumbent, isnít exactly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I fail to see in which areas of the state heís going to do much better than last time around. My current prediction is Tester +3, Gianforte +5/6, and I wouldnít call either race "safe" for the incumbent (Lean D and R, respectively, is a fair rating at this point IMO).

Also, Iím not sure where this idea that Fox is the electoral savior of the MT Republican Party who will make MT-GOV 2020 Safe R comes from.
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2018, 10:08:08 am »

Anyways, Tilt D.
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2018, 10:27:50 am »

"Tester's Numbers Beginning to Sink Amidst Trump Attention"? I doubt he was ever ahead by more than 4 or 5 points in this race.
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2018, 10:42:25 am »

Of course Gravis would only poll Garfield County...
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2018, 10:47:40 am »

Of course Gravis would only poll Garfield County...

They probably only polled pro-life, gun-owning, hardcore Republicans from Winnett.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2018, 11:15:25 am »

Essentially the undecideds.

http://www.mtpr.org/post/trump-voters-not-necessarily-slam-dunk-republicans-montana#stream/0

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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2018, 11:23:16 am »

Tilt D.

Too bad Gianforte leads by 9. This is lean R.

LOL, it's a Toss Up now.

Trump won Montana by 21 Points in 2016. That means something. If Tester wins he is going to win it because Trump Voters staying home.

And why are Trump Voters staying home: Because the Democrats blocking Kavernaugh!

If you're saying that 2016's margin proves Montana has gotten more Republican-leaning or something, I don't really buy that:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Montana,_2004

It's not the first time it voted >20 points for the Republican. I think 2008 and 2012 just misled people a bit and they forgot that Montana is usually a considerably Republican state at the presidential level but competitive in other statewide races.
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