Luxembourg general election: October 14, 2018

[DavidB.]

On October 14th, a general election will take place in Luxembourg.

The party usually leading the government in Luxembourg is the Christian Social People's Party (CSV). The CSV have topped the poll in every post-WW2 election and never received less than 30% of the vote. However, in the 2013 election, the CSV suffered from a scandal involving the secret services illegally wiretapping politicians. PM Juncker resigned, the CSV lost 5% and went into opposition for the second time since WW2 and the first time since the 1970s.

The current government consists of the Social Democrats (LSAP), the Liberals (DP) and the Greens, and is led by Prime Minister Xavier Bettel (DP). Other parties currently represented in parliament are The Left, comparable to its German counterpart, and the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR), who are socially conservative soft euroskeptics with a focus on pensioners' interests.

Luxembourg elects 60 MPs in a proportional system with four multi-member constituencies. Voting is compulsory for everyone aged 18-75 (but unenforced) and turnout is generally over 90%, which contributes to the stability of the political landscape. Each voter has multiple votes (as many as the number of seats in their constituency, ranging from 7 to 23) and can either vote for candidates on multiple lists or give all their votes to one party. This is how the CSV received more than a million votes in 2013 even though only slightly more than 200,000 people were eligible to vote.

Polls have the CSV and ADR winning a few seats, The Left winning one seat, the Greens stagnant or winning one, and the LSAP and DP losing a few seats. The overall picture will remain the same, but the government is set to lose its majority. It is therefore likely that the CSV will be in the driver's seat again and form a government with the Liberals, the Social Democrats or the Greens. They have ruled out working together with The Left and ADR.

[bigic]

It's interesting that the smaller party in the coalition (the Greens) keeps their support, while their larger partners (LSAP, DP) lose support.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

latest poll I found:
https://www.wort.lu/de/politik/sonndesfro-dei-greng-gewinnen-einen-sitz-dazu-5b221403c1097cee25b8b284

CSV: 34%
LSAP: 19.9%
déi gréng: 12%
DP: 10.5%
ADR: 9.3%
déi Lénk: 7.3%
Piratepartei: 3.1%
KPL: 3%
PID: 0.9% (I'm pretty sure this is "other" but I'm entirely unsure)

[bigic]

Which is also the latest poll in Wikipedia and Poll Of Polls. And the poll is from June, so there should be a more recent poll?

[DavidB.]

PID: 0.9% (I'm pretty sure this is "other" but I'm entirely unsure)

Sure or unsure? Anyway, it isn't. PID is a minor party formed as an ADR splitoff.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

PID: 0.9% (I'm pretty sure this is "other" but I'm entirely unsure)

Sure or unsure? Anyway, it isn't. PID is a minor party formed as an ADR splitoff.

i have the best wording brain cells.

[bigic]

You can play with this political compass for the Luxembourg election: https://smartwielen.lu/en/home?locale=en_CH

My position on the compass (slightly right of DP):


How much I agree with each party (I didn't expect the Pirates on the first place):

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Here's my results


1. Piratepartei
80.4%
2. déi gréng
75.0%
3. déi Lénk
73.4%
4. Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
70.7%
5. Demokratesch Partei
61.4%
6. Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
54.9%
7. Déi Konservativ
47.3%
8. Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
46.7%
9. Demokratie
0.0%
10. Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
0.0%

just to the left of the Pirates.

Overall it sounds about right

[Dr. MB]

1. Piratepartei
67.5%
2. déi Lénk
63.1%
3. Déi Konservativ
56.9%
4. déi gréng
53.8%
5. Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
52.5%
6. Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
50.6%
7. Demokratesch Partei
48.1%
8. Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
40.6%

[DavidB.]

This is today. In Smartwielen I got Dei Konservativ > ADR > CSV > DP > LSAP > Pirates > Greens > Left. My result:

[parochial boy]

Déi Lénk - 81.5%
Déi Gréng - 78.5%
Piratepartei - 74.%
LSAP - 67.6%
DP - 52.1%
CSV - 50.6%
Déi Konservativ - 37.4%
ADR - 36.2%

I mean, this is pretty much what I get with every one of these tests. Spoils the fun somewhat

[bigic]

The polls in Luxembourg really do have that short opening hours?
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1051445349196402688

[bigic]

The first results are available here:
https://elections.public.lu/fr.html

[DavidB.]

22% of the vote in Ettelbruck is in and the Pirates are at 15%, compared to 2% in 2013. Didn't see that one coming. ADR also stand to win a lot: from 4% to 11%. Big losses for DP and CSV.

40% of the vote in Esch-sur-Alzette is in, with big losses for CSV and LSAP and big gains for the Pirates (at 8%), the Left, and the Greens. I think the Pirates may actually get in.

[DavidB.]

Northern Putscheid fully in and the ADR go from 5% to 21%, mostly at the expense of DP (22% in 2013 to 10%) and CSV (39% in 2013 to 34%).

[Diouf]

As I understand it, some of these results are list votes only, but this shouldn't make much of a difference. The election system seems similar to the Czech local elections; you can either vote for a party list, who has as many candidates as there are seats, or you can vote for candidates from different parties (with as many votes as there are seats). I would think most people vote list votes, but if some parties have popular personalities, they could probably increase once the non list votes come in.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, wow, polling had CSV getting 40% plus and they're currently well short of 30%.

Looking like another country where the traditional party scene is being blown apart. I wonder why? It's not like they have much to be unhappy about

[DavidB.]

So the pattern seems to be CSV losing a bit to a lot, DP remaining stable in some places (Luxemboug City) but losing a lot in the north and the east, the Pirates making big gains almost everywhere, ADR making modest (South) to big gains (North, East), LSAP losing, Greens gaining quite a lot and Left stable to gaining a little.

Result: more fragmentation + a shift to the left, because CSV and DP lose more than ADR win, and LSAP lose less than the other left-wing parties win (if we consider the Pirates to be on the left). The DP-LSAP-Green coalition will lose its majority and CSV will top the poll, so they get the initiative to form a government but are weakened too. Rambrouch and Ell in the Northwest seem to indicate the trends quite well.

[bigic]

I didn't really expect the rise of Pirates...

[DavidB.]

So there is a big difference between party votes and candidate votes: consider Weiswampach in the North, where ADR had received 558 list votes and DP 495 but ADR only received 218 candidate votes compared to 829 for the DP. Ticket split votes are now coming in. Still most of the aforementioned picture seems to remain the same: gains for Pirates and (more modest gains for) ADR and the Greens, losses for LSAP, DP and mostly CSV. Increased fragmentation and a slight shift to the left.

[mileslunn]

Looks like polls were wrong.  I suspect it will be a few weeks perhaps longer before we know who forms the government.  What are the chances of the government being in place before Christmas or do you think it will be sometime in 2019 the government is formed.  Either way it seems asides from the UK, Europe (we are also seeing this here in Canada in our two most recent provincial elections) is seeing traditional parties post very bad results while non-traditional are gaining.  Is this just people are fed up with the status quo and want something different or is there some bigger reason?  It also seems looking at exit polls traditional parties are still doing well amongst seniors but amongst millennials they are shunning them on mass.  Labour Party in the UK is perhaps the only traditional party to do well amongst millennials but with a very non-traditional leader.

[bigic]

As for the polls, AFAIK there was very little polling in Luxembourg, are they heavily restricted/banned?

[DavidB.]

As for the polls, AFAIK there was very little polling in Luxembourg, are they heavily restricted/banned?

No, but the country is relatively insignificant and small, and its politics are very stable, so the stakes were not high and few people were apparently willing to invest in polls.

[Diouf]

Could the government keep its majority after all?

[DavidB.]

Could the government keep its majority after all?

It's going to be very close, surprisingly, because of CSV's losses and DP/LSAP's strong personal (non-list) vote.