Luxembourg general election: October 14, 2018

[bigic]

According to preliminary projection in constituencies North, East and Centre (37 MPs) (constituency South (23 MPs) still doesn't have a seat projection), the DP-LSAP-Green (now DP-Green-LSAP) coalition has more seats than the other parties, so it's likely to keep its majority. Although even if the coalition keeps its majority, I think LSAP may be reluctant to enter it again, due to their losses.
Source: https://elections.public.lu/fr.html

[Diouf]

Voters rated all parties from -5 to +5, and these are the average values. Voters were also asked about government and opposition as a whole. So government as a whole fairly popular (more than each party individually). All three government parties with the best average popularity (perhaps lifting each other up). ADR only party with net negative rating.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lol that ADR is the only negatively viewed party.

[Diouf]

I don't know much about how well the government had functioned internally. I guess LSAP is the only party that could have any doubts regarding a continuation of the coalition, but hard to see them prefer junior status to CSV or opposition status over continuing with the current government.

[bigic]

The seat projection for the South constituency just came out, and the current government coalition is exactly at 30 seats (needs one more for a majority), although it could change as more votes are being counted.

[Diouf]

The official projection is now 30-30 for government vs. opposition!

[Diouf]

A seat in South shifted from Pirates to Greens. 31-29 lead for government now

[Diouf]

Seats in the South are jumping back and forward, but now mostly between the government parties. Nailbiting count! Only 37 polling places back, who haven't counted the candidate vote results yet. I thought this government would be clearly defeated. They were down at 24 seats in mid-term polls, and even recent polls had them at only 26 seats.

[Diouf]

It seems quite safe now that the government's percentage of the votes will rise. From 48.66% in 2013 to currently 49.53%.

[Diouf]

Full Luxembourg City results in.

DP is now the largest party in the capital with a status quo result at 26.73%. CSV suffers clear losses and fall to 26.68%. Significant progress for Greens to 16.78%, while LSAP fall somewhat to 10.99%. Moderate progress for ADR and Lenk to end on 6.09 and 6.78% respectively. Pirates "only" progress to 4.65%. This is 2% below their national result, so surprisingly not a capital phenomena. Perhaps the capital is too expensive for their kind of voters?

[DavidB.]

Yes, the Left (and the LSAP) should do better in the less expensive industrial southwest than in expensive affluent Luxembourg City. Astounding performance by the government. I don't think anybody expected this. The government is losing only one seat (DP -1, LSAP -3, Greens +3).

[Diouf]

Only personal votes left in 4 polling stations, all in the South. All 3 in Leudelange and 1 in Esch-sur-Alzette.

[Diouf]

Still waiting for 3 polling stations from Leideleng/Leudelange......

[Diouf]

Final results are in. Government keeps its majority! And it even increases its share of the vote. Not a very usual results in Western Europe in these years.

DP 12 seats (-1)
LSAP 10 seats (-3)
Greens 9 seats (+3)

CSV 21 seats (-2)
ADR 4 seats (+1)
Left 2 seats (=)
Pirates 2 seats (+2)

[Diouf]

The electoral system is quite brutal for LSAP, who makes quite small losses (-2.68%) but loses 3 seats. They even remained the biggest government party in terms of vote share. When you have a proportional system, I think it would make sense to save a share of the seats to ensure national proportionality. Also not a superfan of the "choose as many candidates as seats in the region" system.

Seems like the personalized votes were better for the government than list votes. Perhaps some of the government supporters decided to spread their love across the government parties. Or simply having more prominent persons (ministers) helped them.

[Lechasseur]

How come the CSV lost seats again? Aren't they traditionally Luxembourg's most popular party?

[EPG]

The lesson is that a European government can win re-election.*

* If the average salary is €4 500 per month

[DavidB.]

How come the CSV lost seats again? Aren't they traditionally Luxembourg's most popular party?

Their leader seems uncharismatic (at least less charismatic than Bettel), they have been overly reliant on the idea that people were inevitably going to return to them as the natural governing party, and I can also imagine they appeal less to younger voters.

[parochial boy]

So, a bit of #anlysis here, but, despite the well publicised struggles in Austria and Sweden; various Green parties are doing well across Benelux, Germany, Switzerland; which means they are polling well in pretty much all of their traditional "heartland" except for Austria.

[mileslunn]

So, a bit of #anlysis here, but, despite the well publicised struggles in Germany and Sweden; various Green parties are doing well across Benelux, Germany, Switzerland; which means they are polling well in pretty much all of their traditional "heartland" except for Austria.

I could see Greens in a number of European countries replacing traditional social democratic parties as the main parties on the left like you already have in Baden-Wurttemberg.  If you look at age demographics it is quite telling as social democrats tend to skew heavily towards older voters while Greens more towards younger voters.  I think social democrats for a whole wack of reasons have lost a lot of their traditional blue collar support and the future of the left is no longer with them, but rather your educated urban progressives which Greens appeal more to.  In the past it was income that drove voting patterns, but today location and cultural values seem to more so smaller communities are swinging to the right while urban cores towards the left.

[EPG]

It may well simply be environmentalism, given last week's IPCC report and the diesel scandal. In Luxembourg, for instance, it is hardly a kick against the far-right.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

as I have done previously, here's a proportional version:

(+ and - are from actual results, not previous results)

Incoming Government: 30 (-1)
LSAP: 11 (+1)
DP: 10 (-2)
DG: 9 (+/- 0)


CSV: 17 (-4)
ADR: 5 (+1)
Piratepartei: 4 (+2)
DL: 3 (+1)
KPL: 1 (+1)

Likely government: LSAP+DP+DG+Piratepartei

[Diouf]

Tried to calculate how it would look with Danish electoral rules. The government only ends up with 30 seats as déi Lénk wins the final seat very narrowly ahead of DP.

[DC Al Fine]

So, a bit of #anlysis here, but, despite the well publicised struggles in Austria and Sweden; various Green parties are doing well across Benelux, Germany, Switzerland; which means they are polling well in pretty much all of their traditional "heartland" except for Austria.

What the heck happened to the Austrian Greens?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, a bit of #anlysis here, but, despite the well publicised struggles in Austria and Sweden; various Green parties are doing well across Benelux, Germany, Switzerland; which means they are polling well in pretty much all of their traditional "heartland" except for Austria.

What the heck happened to the Austrian Greens?

Botched factional party games resulted in a split, a collapse in support and an electoral disaster. Voters respond to what they have on offer in front of them, elections are not natural phenomena that we measure.