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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Blind Jaunting)
  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1Petro Poroshenko (BPP)  
#2Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)  
#3Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)  
#4Yuri Boyko (OB)  
#5Vladimir Zelenski (SN)  
#6Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)  
#7Oleg Lyashko (RP)  
#8Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)  
#9Andrii Sadovyi (SP)  
#10Evgeny Murayev (IND)  
#11Other (please specify)  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 9414 times)
kelestian
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« Reply #150 on: April 21, 2019, 04:01:36 am »

Also, turnout is ca. 2x as high in the south-eastern Zelenski strongholds vs. the western Poroschenko strongholds.

not enough data so far. Usually, Western Ukraine votes later (many people go to church in the morning)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #151 on: April 21, 2019, 04:14:09 am »

Turnout approaching 18%, now that most districts have submitted their 11am data.

I think about 2/3 voters will cast ballots today (up from 63.5% in Round 1).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #152 on: April 21, 2019, 06:17:44 am »

Does anyone know why there are now more eligible voters in the runoff compared with the first round, despite the fact that the Ukraine has a vastly shrinking population ?

Normally, there should be fewer voters in this case ...

Runoff: 29.659.013 + 700.604 overseas voters
1st round: 29.622.527 + 682.865 overseas voters
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #153 on: April 21, 2019, 07:09:47 am »

Interfax has created a turnout map by region for 11am:

Img


http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd/3/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #154 on: April 21, 2019, 07:21:46 am »

As a comparison, here are the regional maps showing the support for Selenski and Poroschenko in the 1st round:

Img


Img
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #155 on: April 21, 2019, 09:21:42 am »

Does anyone know why there are now more eligible voters in the runoff compared with the first round, despite the fact that the Ukraine has a vastly shrinking population ?

Normally, there should be fewer voters in this case ...

Runoff: 29.659.013 + 700.604 overseas voters
1st round: 29.622.527 + 682.865 overseas voters

I think there were briefly mentions in the newspapers that there were small speak in new registrations overseas. Probably something similar for Ukraine as well?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #156 on: April 21, 2019, 09:26:18 am »

All 199 electoral districts have now reported their 3pm turnout:

45.26% (1st round: 45.11%)

So, turnout is basically unchanged at the national level.

On the regional level though, Volyn and Rivne (in the West) have seen a big drop for example.

Other than that, there is a small increase or slight decrease in most regions.

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=720.html
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #157 on: April 21, 2019, 09:28:03 am »

There are a rumours of exit polls that shows that Ze is getting 72-75% vs 25-28% for Po (at 12:00 and 15:00). They say Po expects to gain a little, because west parts usually vote later. They say the question is if Ze manages to win each and all the "oblast" (means regions/counties) or not rather who becomes next president.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #158 on: April 21, 2019, 09:36:50 am »

Here is the updated regional 3pm turnout map:

http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Utvzd

It still remains highest in the Selenski strongholds in the South-East and Center, while the Poroschenko-strongholds in the West are lagging far behind ...
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: April 21, 2019, 09:37:52 am »

I guess these turnout patterns finish off any chances Poroschenko had
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #160 on: April 21, 2019, 09:43:47 am »

I guess these turnout patterns finish off any chances Poroschenko had

Yeah.

I think those 70-30 Selenski polls ahead of the runoff won't be too far off the actual results.
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bigic
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« Reply #161 on: April 21, 2019, 10:16:39 am »

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #162 on: April 21, 2019, 10:41:54 am »

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #163 on: April 21, 2019, 11:03:31 am »

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?
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bigic
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« Reply #164 on: April 21, 2019, 11:44:05 am »

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?

Because Ukrainian nationalism and ethnic identity is not as strong there.
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #165 on: April 21, 2019, 12:02:41 pm »

Basically all exit-polls show:

Ze 73%
Po 27%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #166 on: April 21, 2019, 12:03:08 pm »

Exit Poll:

Img


Not really close ...
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #167 on: April 21, 2019, 12:07:52 pm »

Another Zelensky stronghold is Transcarpathia (in the country's southwest), which has the lowest turnout in Ukraine.

True, but Zakarpatia won't make the difference here.

Correct, but why exactly do the mountain people not like Poroschenko, considering his strongholds of Lviv and suburbs are just to the North of them ?

If you look back, it has always been less Western Ukrainian politically than the rest of Western Ukraine, especially clearly in 2010. Despite the username, I have not studied it extensively, though I would guess this has to do with more conflicted ethnic identity; there are a lot of Hungarians, Rusyns, Romanians, etc.
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #168 on: April 21, 2019, 12:17:50 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2019, 12:31:51 pm by Russian Bear »

Here is the "National" Exit poll. Right now only in Ukranian.
http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/


Ze's share:

West 57%
Centre 70%
South 85%
East 88%

Total 73%


In English, too, now. http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/en
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Bernietards Don't Understand Polling
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #169 on: April 21, 2019, 12:49:56 pm »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #170 on: April 21, 2019, 12:56:26 pm »

Here is the "National" Exit poll. Right now only in Ukranian.
http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/


Ze's share:

West 57%
Centre 70%
South 85%
East 88%

Total 73%


In English, too, now. http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/en


It should be noted that this exit poll takes into account responses until 6pm local time, but polls closed at 8pm.

There will be another exit poll update later on to account for the final 2 hours of voting.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #171 on: April 21, 2019, 12:59:46 pm »

Police/election observers recorded some 1.000 cases of election irregularities, mostly small offenses like not providing a passport to vote or holding the filled-out ballot into the camera.

The last one actually led to a charge in court by Selenski himself, who waved with his filled-out ballot in front of journalists. Police filed a charge against him ... Tongue
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #172 on: April 21, 2019, 01:04:57 pm »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

Wait until the Jewish comedian turns out to be a Putin plant, though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #173 on: April 21, 2019, 01:12:18 pm »

Lviv + suburbs (Poroschenko's best region in the 1st round) had one of the lowest turnouts in the morning.

Now, surprisingly, it has the highest turnout of all regions ...

Doesn't make a difference though, because all his other strongholds underperformed.
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mgop
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« Reply #174 on: April 21, 2019, 01:16:01 pm »

As an American its a beautiful thing to see a country not suffering from the scourge of polarization. Lucky Ukraine.

Wait until the Jewish comedian turns out to be a Putin plant, though.

like poroshenko was not that + most corrupted ukrainian president ever
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