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  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1Petro Poroshenko (BPP)  
#2Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)  
#3Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)  
#4Yuri Boyko (OB)  
#5Vladimir Zelenski (SN)  
#6Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)  
#7Oleg Lyashko (RP)  
#8Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)  
#9Andrii Sadovyi (SP)  
#10Evgeny Murayev (IND)  
#11Other (please specify)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

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Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 7348 times)
Karpatsky
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« on: September 25, 2018, 11:49:20 am »

Reposting on this topic as the previous thread got merged into Individual Politics for whatever reason, where it has been buried. Here's the old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296391.0.

There is now a second official contender: last week former governor of Donetsk Serhiy Taruta announced his candidacy. He will almost certainly be mostly irrelevant, though he will likely contribute to siphoning votes away from Boyko, lessening his chances to make it to the final round.

Recent polling continues to indicate Tymoshenko and Hrytsenko as the top two, though Poroshenko appears to have rebounded slightly from last month to the low double digits, while 'wild cards' Vakarchuk and Zelensky continue to pull 8-10% each, suggesting either (but probably not both) could be a real contender.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2018, 08:24:30 am »

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll

Tymoshenko    19.3
Poroshenko     11.9
Zelensky         11.8   (showman/actor)
Hrytsenko       10.9   (Civic Position Party)
Vakarchuk        8.4   (singer)
Boiko               8.1   (Opposition Bloc)
Rabinovych       7.5   (Life Party)
Liashko             6.7   (Radical Party)
Sadovy             4.2   (Lviv mayor)

I am for Boiko but I guess he will not make it into the second round.  Looks like Tymoshenko will make it into the second round and a cluster of candidates fighting to make it into second round to face her.

Zelensky's surge is interesting and shows the extent of the mood against conventional politics. 
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kelestian
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2018, 01:12:12 am »

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll

Tymoshenko    19.3
Poroshenko     11.9
Zelensky         11.8   (showman/actor)
Hrytsenko       10.9   (Civic Position Party)
Vakarchuk        8.4   (singer)
Boiko               8.1   (Opposition Bloc)
Rabinovych       7.5   (Life Party)
Liashko             6.7   (Radical Party)
Sadovy             4.2   (Lviv mayor)

I am for Boiko but I guess he will not make it into the second round.  Looks like Tymoshenko will make it into the second round and a cluster of candidates fighting to make it into second round to face her.

Zelensky's surge is interesting and shows the extent of the mood against conventional politics. 

There are ongoing talks between Boiko and Rabynovich about reunion. If Rabinovich isn't a nominee (and it's not clear that Zelenskiy will be candidate, either; his electoral base isn't the same with Boiko's, but some of Zelenskiy's voters will go that way), Boiko will be the single south-eastern candidate on the ballot and make it to the run-off.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 08:43:20 pm »

A few more announcements this week.

My man Sadovyi is officially in, with the slogan of 'restoring confidence to Ukraine'. Also declared is the Agrarian party candidate Bezsmertny and the mayor of a tiny town Tereshchenko. I am doubtful either of the latter will break 1%, and Sadovyi looks like he's still stuck around 3-4%. Hopefully he runs a good campaign, but I am doubtful - Poroshenko has been working on smearing him for years now and I don't think he will get far.

Speaking of Poroshenko, he has recovered some in recent polling and now again looks like he has a decent shot at the second round. Ironically despite being so unpopular he might be one of the few candidates who could beat Tymoshenko there. Of course comparing the current hypothetical polls to reality, it depends on if a united opposition ticket emerges and what Vakarchuk and Zelenski decide to do.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 11:06:16 pm »

I hope Tymoshenko is elected President
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kelestian
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 06:28:37 am »

Latest polls, 28.09-16.10
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321353-novyy-prezidentskiy-reyting-timoshenko-v-liderah-zelenskiy-obognal-poroshenko.html
https://www.unian.net/politics/10321596-poroshenko-proigryvaet-vtoroy-tur-lyubomu-iz-sopernikov-opros.html

First round
Tymoshenko 18,9%
Zelensky (actor/comedian) 10,7%
Hrytsenko (former Defense Minister)  9.9%
Poroshenko 9.9%
Boiko (Opposition Bloc)  9.8% 
Liashko (Radical Party)  8%
Vakarchuk (singer) 7%

Run-offs:
Poroshenko 14.3% Hrytsenko 33.1%
Poroshenko 15.1% Tymoshenko 30.7%
Poroshenko 20% Boiko 20.2%


Some big news: government finally has reached an agreement with IMF. Under the agreement. Ukraine must raise gas prices for public, so i predict Poroshenko's ratings will fall further. Also Russia yesterday imposed sanctions on a lot of ukrainian individuals and companies, but it won't have big impact on elections, i guess. Maybe urge east-ukrainian elites to speed up their unification talks. Right now it seems there will be at lest two major east candidates: Boiko/Rabynovich/Vilkul from Opposition Bloc and young MP Muraev. Also Taruta (Donbass oligarch), but he is marginal candidate.

Thoughts about Zelensky surge and Vakarchuk falling in polls: both still haven't announced their campaigns, and while Zelensky commented this fact with jokes, Vakarchuk waited kinda too long. Everyone expected his announcement during big concert in Kiev (August), but instead he gave generic speech about "We all must do good things and don't do bad things". And he is competing with many candidates for western and central voters (educated, more urban and younger base) - Sadovy, Hrytsenko, even with Poroshenko.
Zelensky is more eastern candidate, where there is Boiko, but Boiko is weak candidate and Zelensky's base is younger. He has Kolomoyskiy's support (oligarch, now in fight with Poroshenko), new season of his show "Servant of the people" (in this series Zelensky, school teacher, suddenly became the president) will be streaming during final stage of elections and he is almost certainly to run.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 09:00:43 am »

Will the split in the Orthodox Church affect voters on the issues?
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 11:29:20 am »

Boyko is in, with a unified OB-ZZ platform. Interestingly, this still doesn't look like it will be enough to give him a solid chance of making the second round, as Rabinovich's support has been collapsing for some time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/17/7198528/
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kelestian
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2018, 01:36:43 am »

Will the split in the Orthodox Church affect voters on the issues?

Poroshenko thinks it will help him. I don't know, hard to say, but i'll predict that economic issues will be more important.

Boyko is in, with a unified OB-ZZ platform. Interestingly, this still doesn't look like it will be enough to give him a solid chance of making the second round, as Rabinovich's support has been collapsing for some time.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2018/11/17/7198528/

And Akmetov's part of OB don't like it. Actually, Opppsition Bloc split yesterday.

Rabinovich support was collapsing because his former friend, Muraev, announced his bid. Now he is at 5%. Potentially, I think, Muraev can be the strongest east candidate. But we will see, maybe Akhmetov also will launch campaign of some of his supporters like Vilkul and east electorate divides on election day.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2018, 11:35:29 am »

Lmao, Symonenko is running again. I thought the Communist party was banned?
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2019, 02:04:11 am »

New poll (IAP)

Tymoschenko (Fatherland) 19,3%
Zelensky (Servant of the Peolple, actor) 12,9%
Boyko (Opposition Platform-For Life) 11,6%
Poroshenko (Poroshenko's Bloc) 11,3%
Hrytsenko (Civil Position) 11,1%
Lyashko (Radical Party) 9,1%
Sadovyi (Self Reliance) 4,5%
Shevchenlo (UKROP) 4,2%
Muraev (Ours) 2,9%
Vilkul (Opposition Bloc 2,8%

In second round Tymoshenko wins against all candidates, except Zelensky and Hrytsenko


Also, we already have 8 registered candidates, of which real, and not technical candidates: 3 (Sadovyi, Muraev, Hrytsenko)
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2019, 08:09:50 am »

At this point I'm starting to come around to Zelensky. I'm not a fan of that sort of populism in general, but Ukraine might actually benefit from it, especially if the alternatives are members of the old oligarch class like Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
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Cath
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2019, 08:21:14 am »

I'm not sure if this is the right place to discuss it, but in early December CSIS had an event where a few experts or self-declared experts discussed the Ukraine's election. It got rather heated between two scholars, one who I believe is native Ukrainian (Taras Kuzio) and one who is very much American (Keith Darden). I felt Taras was quite rude and Darden handled himself better, but can't speak as to the content of their claims. I was wondering what people who are much more familiar with the country and the players would think. Link here. The other guest speaker there was Melinda Harring, who I heard in a subsequent CSIS podcast; she seems very bullish on Tymoshenko and it's looking like she is correct so far based on the polling.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2019, 08:52:49 am »

I think Poroshenko is most likely under-rated in these polls.   He has access to resources as the incumbent and if the non-Poroshenko field is split between many candidates and no common opposition candidate energies I think Poroshenko should be better than even money to win re-election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2019, 02:43:50 pm »

Ukraine Has 44 Presidential Candidates in All-time Record

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-s-44-presidential-candidates-set-all-time-record/4778722.html
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PSOL
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2019, 03:02:48 pm »
« Edited: February 09, 2019, 12:38:37 pm by PSOL »

Is the recent scandal involving Zelenkyís artistic property in Russia gonna hurt him in the polls?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2019, 07:27:46 am »

Do candidates are planning to run the campaign among Ukrainian immigrants in Poland (and other EU member states)?
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kelestian
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« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2019, 01:13:45 pm »

Is the recent scandal involving Zelenkyís artistic property in Russia gonna hurt him in the polls?

No, at all. Poroshenko's manufacture in Russia, Lipetsk didn't hurt him in 2014.
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kelestian
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2019, 08:46:21 am »
« Edited: March 20, 2019, 07:30:39 am by kelestian »

So, there are record-high number of registered candidates - 44 people, 4 women and 40 men. Between them: 16 MPs, former minister of defense, special forces colonel, two former heads of intelligence agency (SBU).

Based on the latest polls, list of main candidates:

TOP TIER
Volodymyr Zelensky, comedian, actor, TV-host and showman. Skyrocketed in latest polls, now he is the leader of the race. Clearly populist candidate, pro-western, but probably the least pro-western from pro-western candidates, with moderate position on many topics, like language or war in Donbass. Has deep connections to oligarch Kolomoysky.
Yulia Tymoshenko, MP, former prime-minister, old player in Ukrainian politics, leader of "Fatherland" party. Pro-western kinda populist candidate with primarily rural and old base. Dominated polls through 2017-2018, but now her chances are not so clear.
Petro Poroshenko, incumbent president, businessman, leader of BPP. His polling numbers are now better than 2 months ago (after the whole new church thing).

MIDDLE TIER
Yuriy Boyko, MP, former member of Yanukovich government. Pro-eastern candidate, now his chances are low because of disagreements between eastern clans, their parliamentary group (Opposition Bloc) has splitted. Has endorsements of such prominent figures as Lyovochkin, Medvedchuk, and probably has Russian support.
Anatoliy Hrytsenko, former defense minister, pro-western politician. Recently general attorney opened investigations against him (corruption during his career in Defense).
Oleg Lyashko, MP, populist candidate from rural north Ukraine, leader of "Radical party". Now it seems like he became puppet of influential oligarch Akhmetov. Interesting fact: Lyashko, despite his homophobic remarks, is gay.

LOW TIER
Oleksandr Vilkul, MP, pro-eastern candidate, has support from Akhmetov and Novinskiy.
Evgeny Muraev, MP and businessman, pro-eastern candidate from Kharkiv.  
Andryi Sadovyi, mayor of Lviv, pro-western candidate, leader of Self-Reliance party.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2019, 02:39:20 pm »

Has anyone actually seen Zelensky's TV show? What's it like? What's the tone? Is it comparable to the West Wing? To In the Thick of It?
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PSOL
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« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2019, 03:46:07 pm »

Has anyone actually seen Zelensky's TV show? What's it like? What's the tone? Is it comparable to the West Wing? To In the Thick of It?
Yeah, essentially a schoolteacher leads a liberal government that is viewed positively by the people due to his hard stance against corruption and the Administrationís honesty. It trashes career politicians, their mastersí the oligarchs, and nepotism. I havenít seen West Wing, so maybe other people will have to fill in. If youíre so curious, itís on Netflix right now for U.S. viewers called ďServant of the PeopleĒ.

It was honestly pretty funny and chill. But to me the best star was the bodyguard and the diplomatís advisor, not the President.

Also ,how deep are Zelenskyís ties to that oligarch? I thought he was relatively clean regarding corruption compared to at least Tymoshenko?
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kelestian
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« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2019, 05:18:04 pm »

Has anyone actually seen Zelensky's TV show? What's it like? What's the tone? Is it comparable to the West Wing? To In the Thick of It?
Yeah, essentially a schoolteacher leads a liberal government that is viewed positively by the people due to his hard stance against corruption and the Administrationís honesty. It trashes career politicians, their mastersí the oligarchs, and nepotism. I havenít seen West Wing, so maybe other people will have to fill in. If youíre so curious, itís on Netflix right now for U.S. viewers called ďServant of the PeopleĒ.

It was honestly pretty funny and chill. But to me the best star was the bodyguard and the diplomatís advisor, not the President.

Also ,how deep are Zelenskyís ties to that oligarch? I thought he was relatively clean regarding corruption compared to at least Tymoshenko?

Well, of course he is clean regarding corruption, he has never been government official before) But his ties with Kolomoysky are very strong. He has been working on Kolomoyskiy's channel 1+1 for years, attacked in comedic sketches Kolomoyskiy's enemies. Now "Benya" (Kolomoyskiy's nickname) is the main supporter of Zelensky's campaign, even gave his bodyguards to Zelensky.
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kelestian
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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2019, 02:30:53 pm »

Full list of candidates:
https://www.rferl.org/a/meet-ukraines-presidential-candidates-2019/29756553.html
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kelestian
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« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2019, 03:34:31 pm »

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2019, 10:05:43 pm »
« Edited: March 03, 2019, 10:29:40 pm by Karpatsky »

Some news
Today Andrei Sadovyi (mayor of Lviv, had 2-3% in polls) and Dmytro Gnap (minor candidate) dropped out from the race and announced their support towards Anatoliy Hrytsenko.


There are 3 ongoing HUGE scandals in Ukrainan politics.

1) It wasn't a big secret that Pororshenko and other government officials are involved in corruption schemes around military-industrial complex. But latest journalist investigationmade it clear that top managers of Ukrainian military-industrial complex and top Poroshnko's ally (and his friend for many years) partiipated in fishy schemes.
https://www.rferl.org/a/weeks-ahead-of-ukraine-vote-poroshenko-under-fire-over-smuggling-claim/29791859.html
Btw, in few days journalists will release second part of investigation.

2) Top officials from both Poroshenko's and Tymoshenko's parties in Kherson region were accused in organizing of killing anti-corruption activist Kateryna Handziuk. Speaker of regional legislature Manger, from Tymoshenko's party, was indicted.
https://112.international/article/who-is-who-in-acid-attack-murder-of-ukrainian-activist-handziuk-36970.html
However other two guys from Poroshenko's party, governor Hordeyev and his deputy Ryshchuk for now are clear from charges.

3) Constitutional Court (controlled by government) has killed major anti-corruption law, and public is angry.
https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/constitutional_court_ruling_undermines_anti_corruption_achievements_in_ukra


Sad  RIP FF

Not that I expected Sadovyi to go anywhere, and this is a responsible move from him. It would be great were Hrytsenko bumped back up into the top tier, I would take him over the top three. Endorsed by default for now.

Another major thing going on recently is the Rada failed to pass a major defense reform which would have brought the Ukrainian army up to NATO standards. This is a major embarrassment for the government.
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