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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Blind Jaunting)
  Ukrainian presidential election, 2019
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Poll
Question: Who will make it into the second round? (2 votes)
#1Petro Poroshenko (BPP)  
#2Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)  
#3Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)  
#4Yuri Boyko (OB)  
#5Vladimir Zelenski (SN)  
#6Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)  
#7Oleg Lyashko (RP)  
#8Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)  
#9Andrii Sadovyi (SP)  
#10Evgeny Murayev (IND)  
#11Other (please specify)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 2019  (Read 9400 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: March 31, 2019, 04:05:41 pm »

Ukraine: 1.1% of Polls, 65.3K Votes

Zelensky 17,642 27%
Petroshenko 11,486 17.57%
Tymoshenko 10,719 16.4%

Others (36 Candidates): 25,509 38.3%

Lyashko is at 8.22% which seems to imply that the count is fairly biased toward Northern Ukraine since his Radical Party tends to be stronger there.  I do not think he is expected to do this well Ukraine wide.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #76 on: March 31, 2019, 04:18:43 pm »

Zelensky would have my vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: March 31, 2019, 04:41:37 pm »

Tymoshenko claims that her count based on 63.51% of the results has it at "Zelensky 28.1%, Tymoshenko 16.1%, Poroshenko 15.2%"
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #78 on: March 31, 2019, 04:49:30 pm »

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: March 31, 2019, 04:54:12 pm »

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...

Are either of them related to Marshal Semyon Timoshenko?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #80 on: March 31, 2019, 04:58:02 pm »

Ukraine: 3.6% of Polls, 318K Votes

Zelensky 91,054 28.61%
Petroshenko 54,901 17.25%
Tymoshenko 47,707 15%

Others (36 Candidates): 124K 39.14%
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Zuza
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« Reply #81 on: March 31, 2019, 05:40:07 pm »

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...

Are either of them related to Marshal Semyon Timoshenko?

No. This is a common last name, so nothing surprising.

By the way, most of Yury Tymoshenko votes seem to come from Yulia Tymoshenko supporters who made a mistake filling the ballot.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: March 31, 2019, 06:07:21 pm »

With 9.12% in we have

Zelensky             29.48%
Petroshenko        16.96%
Tymoshenko        13.87%
Boyko                 11.08%

It seems Zelensky lead is growing but so is the Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: March 31, 2019, 07:26:42 pm »

With 17.04% in we have

Zelensky             30.08%
Petroshenko        16.65%
Tymoshenko        13.38%
Boyko                 11.41%

Zelensky and Boyko going up over time with Petroshenko and Tymoshenko going down over time.  Petroshenko-Tymoshenko gap increasing.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #84 on: March 31, 2019, 07:42:16 pm »

Ukraine: 18.31% of Polls, 2,609,000 Votes

Zelensky 784,569, 30.07%
Petroshenko 435,797 16.70%
Tymoshenko 349,281 13.38%
Boyko 296,613 11.36%

Others (35 Candidates): 742K 28.49%
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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: March 31, 2019, 09:08:12 pm »

With 27.74% in we have

Zelensky             30.10%
Petroshenko        16.77%
Tymoshenko        13.25%
Boyko                 11.35%

These numbers look pretty steady now so they should pretty much be the result which would mostly match exit polls.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #86 on: March 31, 2019, 11:40:35 pm »

Close to 45% of votes counted - not much change. So, it's, most likely, Zelensky vs Poroshenko in run-off, with advantage (despite Poroshenko's incumbency and control of most of mass media) going to Zelensky
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jaichind
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« Reply #87 on: April 01, 2019, 06:32:19 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko. 

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #88 on: April 01, 2019, 08:09:12 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....
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jaichind
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« Reply #89 on: April 01, 2019, 08:25:49 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....

Of course.  I think the best way is some sort of standoff in  Donbass like troops from both sides face to face with some shooting here or there for some strategic spot.  Ideally for  Petroshenko  the standoff lasts for 2 weeks or so before the runoff.  Then Petroshenko  can have all sorts of threatening speeches and military parades and drown out any news of Zelensky in the media.  The election then becomes a Petroshenko vs Putin race.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #90 on: April 01, 2019, 08:35:18 am »

With 79.18% in we have

Zelensky             30.41%
Petroshenko        16.05%
Tymoshenko        13.24%
Boyko                 11.54%

Note that this vote share calculation also does not filter out the around 1.18% that are invalid so the non-null vote share are all a bit higher.  Also this is Ukraine only and not vote from abroad which my understanding  leans Petroshenko.  

It seems a gap of over 14% between Zelensky  and Petroshenko  will be too large for Petroshenko to overcome even though I was always pretty positive on Petroshenko's chances.  It seems Petroshenko reaction to the results is the same old attacks on Zelensky and Kolomoyskyi which I think is already baked in" into voting intentions.  He better come up something else soon on his line of attack.  Perhaps now is a time for a renewed conflict with Russia ?

In REAL conflict Russia would almost surely crush him. He needs "good imitation" of conflict, but still - imitation....

Of course.  I think the best way is some sort of standoff in  Donbass like troops from both sides face to face with some shooting here or there for some strategic spot.  Ideally for  Petroshenko  the standoff lasts for 2 weeks or so before the runoff.  Then Petroshenko  can have all sorts of threatening speeches and military parades and drown out any news of Zelensky in the media.  The election then becomes a Petroshenko vs Putin race.

Agree. This is, essentially, the only path to winning for Poroshenko...
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mgop
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« Reply #91 on: April 01, 2019, 09:17:26 am »

there's no way poroshenko can win in second round. ukrainian people aren't complete idiots, he won plurality only in pro nazi regions of lviv and ternopil. i think zelenski will win in second round with 2/3 majority at least.

here's map by region https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #92 on: April 01, 2019, 10:50:17 am »
« Edited: April 01, 2019, 10:55:18 am by smoltchanov »

there's no way poroshenko can win in second round. ukrainian people aren't complete idiots, he won plurality only in pro nazi regions of lviv and ternopil. i think zelenski will win in second round with 2/3 majority at least.

here's map by region https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47767440

No. My present forecast is about 58% Zelensky. But it's 3 weeks until 21st....

P.S. (concerning "complete idiots"): Before November 2016 i frequently heard phrases like "Americans are not complete idiots, they will not elect Trump...")))))
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #93 on: April 01, 2019, 11:30:53 am »

Rule 1 of elections: A voter is smart and rational, voters en masse are stupid.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #94 on: April 01, 2019, 03:33:08 pm »

Rule 1 of elections: A voter is smart and rational, voters en masse are stupid.

Excellent rule!
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #95 on: April 01, 2019, 04:37:41 pm »

Img


Looks a lot more like a 2014 retread than a pre-revolutionary map, esp. in Southern Ukraine separating politically from the Donbass.
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kelestian
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« Reply #96 on: April 02, 2019, 05:21:50 am »

Some maps.

Poroshenko vs Zelenskiy. Best region for Zelenskiy - Dniepro region, he is from that region. For Poroshenko - Lviv
Img


Poroshenko by regions
Img


Electoral districts, won by candidates, green - Zelenskiy, red - Poro, pink - Timoshenko, blue - Boyko
Img


Boyko vs Poroshenko, electoral districts
Img


Map of precincts
Img


Precincts in Kiy(e)v. Zelenskiy won in poorer parts of city
Img
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kelestian
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« Reply #97 on: April 02, 2019, 05:31:29 am »

Interesting precincts:
Zelenskiy is leading in prisons, but with Timoshenko at close second position and even behind her in some
Timoshenko won many precincts in hospitals, especially in central Ukraine
Poroshenko won special districts for soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with Zelenskiy as close second
Poroshenko won abroad, Switzerland is his best performance (60%+), but Zelenskiy won almost all of Eastern Europe, and Boyko won in Estonia and Moldova
Zelenskiy won universities in Kiev, some of them (like Kiev Politech) - strongly
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jaichind
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« Reply #98 on: April 02, 2019, 06:37:03 am »

It seems to me Zelenskiy is better off with Timoshenko not endorsing him for the second round or else it might stain his outsider new politics image.
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Hydera
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« Reply #99 on: April 02, 2019, 10:17:41 am »

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.
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