Ukrainian presidential election, 2019

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Voting will end 8pm Kiev time (1pm EST) which I assume exit polls will come out.  Donbas will not be voting of course but it seems Donbas residents who want to vote and travel to the areas controlled by the Ukraine government.

Correct. Also, those Ukrainians who currently live in Russia have to travel to Finland, Kazakhstan or Georgia in order to vote.


Also, Mustafa Nayyem seems to leak some exit polls from different candidates. According to them Ze and Poroshenko goes to the 2nd round. Only exit polls from Ti shows her second.

The average (my veeeery quick estimation of it) will be around:
Ze ≈ 28%
Po ≈ 20%
Ti ≈ 15%

He also says there are rumors that Ze and Ti are negotiating/discussing/working together on some sort of cooperation/coalition.

https://t.me/mustafanayyem (you'll probably need Telegram app to open it, though...)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The preliminary exit polls results (those who vote 08:00-18:00).


Ze 30,4%
Po 17,8%
Ti 14,2%


The 08:00-20:00 will be published in 3 hours.





Here the exit poll from 112 and newsone tv-channels.


And one from SOCIS:



I don't know how good they usually are, but Timoshenko's chances seems really bad.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BTW:

Official turnout reports can be found here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp063pt001f01=719.html

Official results here:

https://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2019/wp300pt001f01=719.html

It looks as if turnout will end up between 65-70%, which is high for Ukraine standards.

1999 - 70%
2004 - 75%
2010 - 67%
2014 - 60% (but Donetsk and to some degree Luhansk had really low turnout)


2019 - around 65%


I don't know if you can call it high, probably normal?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Tymoshenko, the man, is at 0.8% right now...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is there a reason why places like Donetsk still votes for pro-russian candidates? If you add the two pro-russian candidates with 10-30% of Zelensky support who can be broadly either pro-russia or pro-peace talks. They make up 50%+ when the areas were affected by war.

Because those places are pro-russian...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-gas/ukrainian-government-bans-gas-price-hikes-before-vote-idUSKCN1RF16M
Ukrainian government bans gas price hikes before vote

The Ukrainian government has banned state-run gas producer Naftogaz from raising consumer gas prices, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said on Wednesday, a move likely to please voters but disturb the country’s creditors.

Also, Ze calling out Poroshenko to have a debate in a trollish teaser/ad. Poroshenko is toast.

https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy95/videos/2220411848209179/ (in ukranian).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

According to exit poll for 112/NewsOne by SORA.

Who you are going to vote for if it in the second round will be Ze vs Po



Ze 49.4%
Po 19.8%
Unsure 19.2%
Wouldn't vote 11.6%

The second image shows the voter flows and, by some reason, slightly different results (Po at 22.3% by instance).


https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-1-regionalnyj-rozpodil/
https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-2-teritorialno-poselenska-struktura/
https://smc.org.ua/news/drugyj-tur-startovi-pozytsiyi-kandydativ-chastyna-3-peretoky-goglosiv/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/ukrainian-leader-agrees-to-debate-comic-in-stadium-before-runoff
Ukrainian Leader Agrees to Debate Comic in Stadium Before Runoff

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

After Po accepted the invitation to have a debate suggested Ze that Ti should be a moderate the debate to make it transparent...

Today, they were taking a drug tests to prove that they are not alcoholics or drug addicts... Then Klichko, the Mayor of Kiev and a former boxer, weights in and trolls them by saying that those drug test are joke and that he can organize the real one for them… Surreal...


It is starting to become a big fat joke... Does Ze want to lose?


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47819047
https://www.facebook.com/KlitschkoOfficial/posts/10156171518155205

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The first poll after the first round.

        All            Gonna vote         Gonna vote & decided
Ze    51%            61%                        71%
Po    21%            24%                        29%



(UKR) http://ratinggroup.ua/getfile/356/rg_ukraine_monitoring_042019_press.pdf

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Another interesting fact: debates could be bad for Zelenskiy because... his Ukrainian language is bad! Usually he speaks Russian, only in some pre-scripted videos he spoke in Ukrainian. He said he has started Ukrainian about 2-3 years ago.

He will speak Russian, won't he? I don't know if it is the bad thing for him. He already lost the die-hard anti-Russians...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From the poll I posted before >>>





Also, if I understand it all correctly, it is not clear there will be a debate... Po & his aides say that Po (according to the Ukraine law?) come only if there is no other debates at the same time. And since there seems to be a debates on national TV at the same time, he will come there as he should due to Ukraine law...

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1117472352034533377
Po said this yesterday in the stadium (I think) where he wanted to have debate with Ze who didn't come because Ze wants to have debate on 19... So... It is likely just the rhetoric... Hahaha, a sh**tshow in a sh**thole country...  as some would put it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

New poll

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1118122057940779008
(UKR) https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=851&page=1

90% Donbass (among those who have decided) would vote for Ze.


They asked as well about next parliamentary election.

Ze 26%
Bo 16% (a "pro-Russian" party, gained)
Po 14%
Ti 12% (collapsed?)


Overall "pro-Russian" parties get about 20%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The debates in English by RT's Ruptly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGUuAMi2jls



Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.


Also, the debates are somewhat similar to American one.
- Po says that he is "most qualified candidate" (among other to meet Putin) while Ze is Putin's and oligarchs' puppet,
- while Ze says that Po is crooked and if Ze is the president Po might be locked up   (Ze said literally that Po might end up "seeing" a prosecutor).

A lot of a sh**t throwing...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Very good performance from Zelenskiy. Average from Poroshenko

I'd say awful from Poroshenko given that he trailing by like 30-40% in polls. Average from Ze, but he didn't need anything special.

Ze sometimes changes to Russian language.

I'm not a linguist, but for those who know both languages:

Is Ukrainian quite different to Russian or just some estranged dialect of Russian, similar to Dutch relative to Standard/High-German or Austrian-German relative to Standard/High-German ?

It would come across as very odd to Austrian voters for example if some major politician with origins in Germany would debate on TV here, speaking High-German ... because it is so distinct to our German. And vice-versa it would be weird as well.

I don't know. I'd say they are not just dialects, but they are quite similar. Probably more similar than Spanish/Portuguese etc.

The thing is that neither Po or Ze are native Ukrainian speakers (though Poroshenko's has always been way better and significantly improved his skills) so it's much easier (to me) to understand them than native speakers.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Does anyone know why there are now more eligible voters in the runoff compared with the first round, despite the fact that the Ukraine has a vastly shrinking population ?

Normally, there should be fewer voters in this case ...

Runoff: 29.659.013 + 700.604 overseas voters
1st round: 29.622.527 + 682.865 overseas voters

I think there were briefly mentions in the newspapers that there were small speak in new registrations overseas. Probably something similar for Ukraine as well?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

There are a rumours of exit polls that shows that Ze is getting 72-75% vs 25-28% for Po (at 12:00 and 15:00). They say Po expects to gain a little, because west parts usually vote later. They say the question is if Ze manages to win each and all the "oblast" (means regions/counties) or not rather who becomes next president.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Basically all exit-polls show:

Ze 73%
Po 27%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here is the "National" Exit poll. Right now only in Ukranian.
http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/


Ze's share:

West 57%
Centre 70%
South 85%
East 88%

Total 73%


In English, too, now. http://dif-exitpoll.org.ua/en

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Incumbent President Poroshenko meanwhile has accepted his defeat and has called President-elect Zelenski to congratulate him on his victory:

Volodymyr Zelensky, the winner of the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine according to the results of exit polls, said incumbent head of state Petro Poroshenko had called him, congratulated him on his victory, and stated he was ready to provide comprehensive assistance.

"I am very grateful to the President of Ukraine, Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko. He has just congratulated me on my victory. I am grateful to him, he said I can count on his assistance at any time. He recognized my victory and the victory of my team," Zelensky said at a briefing on Sunday evening.

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/582736.html

His concession speech was actually OK, but then...

https://twitter.com/poroshenko/status/1120021217417809922

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

http://ppi.org.ua/news/exitpoll_2019_ppi_zelenskij_75_21_poroshenko_23_10/2019-04-21-384

According to the exit poll from PPI, Ze won everywhere, but Lviv.